UFC Predictions: Fight Night 174 Lewis vs. Oleinik picks and best bets

Dec 14, 2019; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Ian Heinisch (red gloves) fights Omari Akhmedov (blue gloves) during UFC 245 at T-Mobile Arena.
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Matthew Lowrimore

UFC · 2 years ago

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Matthew has been with Pickswise for a while now, covering a wide variety of sports. His main passions are college football and UFC, and those are the sports he has covered the most. Matthew uses a variety of methods to handicap games, including stats, trends, injuries, and situational factors. His goal is to consistently give out winners and will put in the research to try and achieve this.

All the other major US sports may be back, but that does not mean that we do not still have UFC Fight Cards every single week. This week we have a main event featuring two Heavyweights looking to make their case for a shot at the title.

We’ll share our UFC Fight Night 174 best bets here but head over to our main UFC Fight Night 174 predictions homepage, if you want, picks for every fight on the main and preliminary card. Please gamble responsibly when following our MMA picks and predictions.

UFC Fight Night 174 best bets

Main Card

Derrick Lewis by KO/TKO (-140)

Derrick Lewis will look to take a step further in pursuing a Heavyweight title shot, as he takes on Aleksei Oleinik in the main event at UFC Fight Night 174. Lewis is averaging 2.53 significant strikes per minute and is absorbing only 2.13 strikes per minute. He still has quite a lot of power, winning by KO/TKO 18 times in his career and 10 times in the UFC.

Aleksei Oleinik has been knocked out three times in the UFC, so he must be extremely careful with the power of Lewis. He has six submission wins in the UFC, but we have not seen one since 2018. With Oleinik coming to the end of his career, I worry about his chin and how much damage he will be able to take. Especially against a guy like Lewis, who has one-punch knockout power.

Omar Akhmedov Moneyline (+116)

Omar Akhmedov has won five of his last six fights (with one draw in there as well). One thing to note is that all five of these wins have come by the judges scorecards. Akhmedov is not the greatest striker, averaging just 2.99 significant strikes per minute. The problem here is that his striking accuracy is 34%. He only absorbs 2.77 strikes per minute, so he does limit most of the damage. Akhmedov will want to take this fight to the ground, where he averages 2.40 takedowns per every 15 minutes.

The most surprising thing about Chris Weidman is that he is 1-5 in his last six fights. All of these losses came by KO/TKO, so clearly his chin should be the biggest concern in this fight. I just cannot trust his chin at the moment, especially since we have seen him get knocked out five times in his last six fights.

Undercard

Gavin Tucker/Justin Jaynes: Fight to go the Distance – N0 (-110)

Justin Jaynes could not have asked for a better UFC debut, as he knocked out Frank Camacho 41 seconds into the fight. He has now won five fights in a row, all of them coming inside the distance (one win was due to a DQ). Because of his debut, Jaynes is averaging 23.41 significant strikes per minute.

Gavin Tucker won his last fight by submission against Seung woo Choi back in July of 2019. He will try to take this fight to the ground more than likely as he averages 2.08 takedowns per every 15 minutes. Both guys have shown they can finish fights inside the distance, Jaynes finishing 14 of his 16 career wins and Tucker finishing nine of his 11 wins.

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