Matthew Lowrimore
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UFC 270 takes place on Saturday at the Honda Center in Anaheim, California. The card features a heavyweight title fight as the main event and a flyweight title fight as the co-main event.
We are sharing our UFC 270 best bets here, but head over to our main UFC 270 predictions page for picks for every fight on the main and preliminary card. Please gamble responsibly when following our MMA picks and predictions.
UFC 270 main card best bets
Francis Ngannou vs Ciryl Gane ML (-150)
Ciryl Gane comes into this fight with an MMA record of 10-0. He is 7-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Derrick Lewis by TKO/KO in August 2021. Gane is averaging 5.37 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 57%. He is absorbing just 2.40 strikes and has a striking defense of 62%. His grappling is also not his strongest area, averaging 0.71 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 20%, but his takedown defense is 100%.
As good as Francis Ngannou has been, Gane might be just a little bit better. His striking is more accurate and he lands a higher volume of strikes. He does a better job at defending against strikes and if Ngannou tries to take this fight to the ground, Gane has the edge there too. For that reason, backing Gane to become the new UFC heavyweight champion is the play.
Cody Stamann vs Said Nurmagomedov – Nurmagomedov win by decision (+100)
Said Nurmagomedov comes into this fight with an MMA record of 14-2. He is 3-1 in the UFC, most recently beating Mark Striegl in October 2020. Nurmagomedov is averaging 4.65 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 46%. He is absorbing 2.37 strikes and has a striking defense of 60%. His grappling is not as good, as he averages just 0.45 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 7% and his takedown defense is 71%.
Nurmagomedov looks to be the right side here, though his money line is still a bit too high. He has won 7 times in his career by decision and Cody Stamann has lost 3 times by decision, 2 of which were in the UFC. Nurmagomedov has the better striking and should be able to control this fight. For that reason, backing Nurmagomedov to win by decision will be the play.
UFC 270 preliminary card best bets
Ilia Topuria win by finish (-175) vs Charles Jourdain
Ilia Topuria comes into this fight with an MMA record of 11-0. He is 3-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Ryan Hall by TKO/KO in July 2021. Topuria is averaging 2.77 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 48%. He is absorbing 1.92 strikes and has a striking defense of 64%. Grappling is where Topuria will likely excel, averaging 3.35 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 3.4 submission attempts during the same time period. His takedown accuracy is 55%, while his takedown defense is 100%.
Topuria is a massive favorite, so any money line bet is not worth it. He should win this fight pretty easily though, considering he is undefeated. Of his 11 career fights, he has 10 wins by finish. Charles Jourdain has struggled with defending takedowns as well, so backing Topuria to win by finish will be the play.
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