UFC predictions, picks and best bets for UFC Fight Night 181

Bobby Green (blue gloves) defeats Erik Koch (red gloves) during UFC Fight Night at the Spectrum Center.
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Matthew Lowrimore

UFC · 1 year ago

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Matthew has been with Pickswise for a while now, covering a wide variety of sports. His main passions are college football and UFC, and those are the sports he has covered the most. Matthew uses a variety of methods to handicap games, including stats, trends, injuries, and situational factors. His goal is to consistently give out winners and will put in the research to try and achieve this.

We are back in Las Vegas this week at the UFC Apex for UFC Fight Night 181. This weeks’ card will feature a Middleweight fight as the Main Event.

We’ll share our UFC Fight Night 181 best bets here but head over to our main UFC Fight Night 181 predictions homepage if you want picks for every fight on the main and preliminary card. Please gamble responsibly when following our MMA picks and predictions.

UFC Fight Night 181 Best Bets

Main Card

Bobby Green vs. Thiago Moises, Fight to go the Distance – Yes (-190)

Bobby Green is the heavy favorite here and is 27-10-1 in the MMA. He is 3-0 in his last three fights, and is now 8-5-1 in the UFC. Green is averaging 5.13 strikes per minute, absorbing 3.36 strikes. Also, he has some grappling ability, averaging 1.53 takedowns per 15 minutes. He does only land his takedowns with an accuracy of 39%, but defends them with an accuracy of 74%.

Thiago Moises comes into this fight 13-4 in the MMA and 2-2 in the UFC. He is averaging 2.68 strikes per minute, absorbing 3.54 strikes. His striking accuracy is just 43%, which could be an issue with the type of defense Green brings to the table. As for grappling, he averages 1.10 takedowns per every 15 minutes, landing them at an accuracy of 28%. He defends takedowns 68% of the time an also averages 1.6 submissions per every 15 minutes.

Green has seen his last eight fights go to decision and I think we are going to get a stalemate here. Moises has seen three of his four fights go to decision in the UFC. As a result, I am going to lean to this being a fight where not much happens, so I am going to take this fight to go the full distance.

Bryce Mitchell vs. Andre Fili, Fight to go the Distance – Yes (-120)

Bryce Mitchell comes into this fight 13-1 in the MMA. He is 4-0 in the UFC, most recently coming off a win over Charles Rosa. He basically dominated that fight, mainly because he controlled the ground. Mitchell is averaging 2.13 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He does only land his takedowns at 41%, but also averages 2.7 submission attempts per every 15 minutes. His striking is not as prolific, averaging just 2.05 strikes. He absorbs just 1.36 strikes, so his chin should not be an issue.

Andre Fili is 21-7 in the MMA and 9-6 in the UFC. His last fight was a win against Charles Jourdain, a win by split decision. Fili is a pretty solid striker, averaging 3.9 strikes per minute. His striking accuracy is 36% and he absorbs 3.97 strikes. He also has nice grappling abilities, averaging 2.71 takedowns per every 15 minutes and landing them with an accuracy of 49%. More impressively, he has defended takedowns at 69%.

This fight feels more evenly matched than the line may suggest. Three of Mitchell’s four UFC fights have gone the distance and nine of Fili’s 15 UFC fights have done the same.

Uriah Hall vs. Anderson Silva, Fight to go the Distance – No (-142)

Uriah Hall is the heavy favorite here and is 16-9 in the MMA. He is 8-7 in the UFC and is riding a two-fight win streak. Hall is mainly a striker, averaging 3.31 strikes per minute. He is absorbing 3.57 strikes per minute as well, but has been knocked out four times in his career. His grappling is not as good, averaging 0.75 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He also only lands his takedowns 38% of the time.

Anderson Silva comes into this fight 34-10 in the MMA and 17-6 in the UFC. The biggest issue here is that he has lost six of his last seven fights. He is averaging 3.04 strikes per minute, landing them 62% of the time. He only absorbs 1.98 strikes per minute and has lost by TKO/KO just three times.

Silva has been far too inconsistent here to back, even at a nice plus money price. Hall is also inconsistent, so I do not want to lay his price either. Nine of Hall’s 15 UFC fights have ended inside the distance and 17 of Silva’s 23 UFC fights have done the same. As a result, I will look for a finish here.

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