UFC predictions, picks and best bets for UFC Fight Night 182

Sep 7, 2019; Abu Dhabi, UAE; Paul Felder (blue gloves) fights Edson Barboza (not pictured) during UFC 242 at The Arena.
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Matthew Lowrimore

UFC· 1 year ago

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Matthew has been with Pickswise for over a year now, covering a wide variety of sports. His main passion is college football and that is the sport he has covered the most. Matthew uses a variety of methods to handicap games, including stats, trends, injuries, and situational factors. His goal is to consistently give out winners and will do everything he can to make his readers money.

We are in Las Vegas this week at the UFC Apex for UFC Fight Night 182. This weeks’ card will feature a Lightweight fight with title aspirations as the Main Event.

We’ll share our UFC Fight Night 182 best bets here but head over to our main UFC Fight Night 182 predictions homepage if you want picks for every fight on the main and preliminary card. Please gamble responsibly when following our MMA picks and predictions.

UFC Fight Night 182 Best Bets

Main Card

Paul Felder Money Line (+168)

Paul Felder took this fight on short notice due to an injury to Islam Makhachev. Felder is 17-5 in his MMA career, posting a UFC record of 9-5. He did lose his last fight to Dan Hooker by split decision, but this was back in February of this year. Felder is averaging 3.67 strikers per minute, landing them with an accuracy of 43%. He is absorbing 3.40 strikes per minute and has only been knocked out once in the UFC. Grappling is certainly not his strong suit, averaging just 0.25 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is only 25%, but he defends them 61% of the time.

Rafael Dos Anjos enters this fight 29-13 in the MMA and 18-11 in the UFC. He will make his return to the Lightweight division after an average run at Welterweight. Dos Anjos is averaging 3.47 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing just 3.18 strikes.

Dos Anjos is not showing enough consistency as of late, losing four of his last five fights. Plus, even though Felder is on short notice, I believe the price is far too generous, so as a result, I will back Felder to score the upset and to get back into the conversation for a title opportunity.

Khaos Williams Money Line (+198)

Abdul Razak Alhassan enters this fight as a heavy favorite, posting a record of 10-2 in the MMA and 4-2 in the UFC. He is coming off a loss to Mounir Lazzez by unanimous decision. Alhassan is averaging 4.54 significant strikes per minute, but is absorbing 5.05 strikes. He is not a good grappler, averaging 0.73 takedowns per every 15 minutes, landing them at an accuracy of 28%. He also only defends takedowns 42% of the time.

Khaos Williams comes into this fight 10-1 in the MMA and 1-0 in the UFC. He won his UFC debut against Alex Morono by TKO back in February of this year. Because he won that fight so quickly, he is averaging 22.22 significant strikes per minute. He absorbs just 2.22 strikes, so his defense has been excellent so far.

Williams’ power looks to be the real deal and nothing about Alhassan gives me confidence he can win at this price. As a result, I will back the big underdog here to win.

Preliminary Card

Brendan Allen vs. Sean Strickland, Fight to go the Distance – Yes (-134)

Brendan Allen comes into this fight 15-3 in the MMA and 3-0 in the UFC. His most recent fight was a unanimous decision win against Kyle Daukaus back in June of this year. Allen is certainly not the greatest striker, averaging 2.67 strikes per minute. He is landing these strikes with an accuracy of 60%, which will certainly help him do more damage. Allen also has some ability to grapple, averaging 1.42 takedowns per every 15 minutes. More importantly, he averages 2.4 submission attempts during the same time period.

Sean Strickland is coming off a rather easy win against Jack Marshman, a fight that happened just about two weeks ago. He is now 21-3 in the MMA and 8-3 in the UFC. Strickland is averaging 4.64 strikes per minute, but landing his strikes only 36% of the time. He is absorbing 3.57 strikes, but has only been knocked out once in his career. Grappling looks to be a big part of this fighting style as well, landing 1.22 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He is landing his takedowns at an accuracy of 57%, while defending them 81% of the time.

Because this fight is so even, I believe both guys could easily come away with the win. As a result, I am just going to take this fight to go a full three rounds.

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