UFC predictions, picks and best bets for UFC on ESPN 20

June 5, 2020; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Neil Magny during weigh ins for UFC 250 at the UFC APEX.
Photo of Matthew Lowrimore

Matthew Lowrimore

UFC · 1 year ago

Show Bio

Matthew has been with Pickswise for over a year now, covering a wide variety of sports. His main passion is college football and that is the sport he has covered the most. Matthew uses a variety of methods to handicap games, including stats, trends, injuries, and situational factors. His goal is to consistently give out winners and will do everything he can to make his readers money.

We are back in Abu Dhabi on Fight Island for this midweek card. The Main Event will feature a Welterweight fight between two of the top contenders.

We’ll share our UFC on ESPN 20 best bets here but head over to our main UFC on ESPN 20 predictions homepage if you want picks for every fight on the main and preliminary card. Please gamble responsibly when following our MMA picks and predictions.

UFC on ESPN 20 Best Bets

Main Card

Neil Magny Money Line (-140)

Neil Magny is a decent sized favorite coming into this fight and has a professional record of 24-8 in the MMA. In the UFC, he is 17-6 and is currently riding a three-fight win streak. Magny most recently beat Robbie Lawler by unanimous decision back in August of 2020. He is averaging 3.96 significant strikes per minute, landing them at an accuracy of 48 percent. He is only absorbing 2.15 strikes and has a striking defense of 56 percent. Magny is also a solid grappler, averaging 2.63 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 45 percent and his takedown defense is 59 percent. It is worth noting that Magny has lost by submission four times in his career with three of those coming in the UFC.

Michael Chiesa comes into this fight also riding a three-fight win streak. The difference with Chiesa is that he has not fought since January of 2020. Chiesa is not known for this striking, averaging just 2.07 significant strikes per minute. His striking accuracy is only 39 percent, which is also a concern. Though he is only absorbing 1.95 strikes per minute and has only been knocked out once in the UFC. Grappling will be where Chiesa will look to excel, averaging 3.84 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.1 submission attempts during the same time period.

Magny is starting to gain some attention in the Welterweight division with his current win streak. His striking looks to be better here, so as long as he can stop the takedowns, Magny looks to be the better side.

Preliminary Card

Mason Jones Money Line (+150)

Mike Davis is the favorite here and comes into this fight 8-2 in the MMA. He is 1-1 in the UFC after beating Thomas Gifford by KO back in October 2019. Clearly, it has been a long layoff for Davis, so it is going to be hard to determine how effective he will be. Davis is averaging 5.87 significant strikes per minute. At the same time, he is absorbing 6.36 strikes per minute, so his chin could still be an issue. His grappling is not the best, averaging 0.77 takedowns per every 15 minutes. Especially since his takedown accuracy is 33 percent, his wrestling is not reliable enough.

Mason Jones will make his UFC debut here and comes into this fight with a perfect 10-0 record. He is very balanced by the fact that he has four KO/TKO wins, three submission wins and three decision wins. His last fight was a Cage Warriors event back in September 2020, so he has the advantage of being fresher so to speak. His last two fights have also ended in the first-round, so he has proven he can finish a fight quickly.

Jones appears to be an exciting prospect and has had several fights where he was able to comeback from early adversity. Getting plus money with an undefeated fighter feels too good to pass up, so my play would be for Jones to make an early impression on the rest of the Lightweight division with a huge win.

Umar Nurmagomedov by Decision (-125)

Umar Nurmagomedov is one of the biggest favorites on this entire card and he has not even fought in the UFC yet. He is a perfect 12-0 in the MMA, but has not fought since November of 2019. Nurmagomedov has six finishes in his career, one by KO/TKO and five by submission. His other six wins have come by means of decision. Six of his last eight fights have come by decision, so he would be perfectly content with controlling this fight and letting the judges declare him as the winner.

Sergey Morozov comes into this fight 16-4 in the MMA and will also be making his UFC debut here. He is currently riding a five-fight win streak with his last fight coming in October of 2019. Morozov has 11 finishes in his career, eight by KO/TKO and three by submission.

With both guys being new, look for this one to be more of a slow-paced fight. Nurmagomedov still looks to be the better fighter, but taking him to win by decision would be my play.

At Pickswise we provide free expert MMA picks and MMA Predictions for all of the top UFC Cards. Our UFC Predictions and Picks include a pick and analysis for all of the prelims and main card fights.

Virginia Bonuses

See All
PointsBet

$500

Get 5x $100 Risk-Free Bets!

Sign up for a new PointsBet account

Make a bet of up to $100 and receive a refund if you lose

Get this offer once a day for the first 5 days you sign up

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

DraftKings

$200

Bet $5 on Any MLB Game, Get $200 if Your Team Wins!

Sign up for a new account with DraftKings Sportsbook and make your first deposit

Bet $5 on any MLB team to win their next game

Win $200 in free bets + any cash winnings from your original wager

Offer valid for new players only. Must be 21 years or older to play. Reward paid in site credit. Full terms available at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Monkey Knife Fight

$100

Claim Instant Deposit Match up to $100 + Free $5 game

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

PointsBet

$2,000

Get $2,000 in Risk-Free Bets!

Register for a new PointsBet account & deposit

Receive a free bet refund up to $500 if your first fixed odds bet loses

& a free bet refund up to $1,500 if your first two PointsBetting Wager loses

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

Caesars Sportsbook

$1,500

Get up to $1,500 Risk-Free First Bet!

Sign up for a new Caesars Sportsbook account

Make your first deposit of $50+

If your first bet is not a winner, get it all back as a free bet (up to $1,100) if you lose!

21+. Terms and conditions apply.

BetRivers

$250

Get a $250 Deposit Bonus!

Sign up for a new BetRivers account using promo code PICKSWISE

Make a deposit & get it doubled up to $250 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $100

Must be 21+. Play in IA Only. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-BETS OFF

Unibet

$500

Get a $500 Risk-Free Bet!

Register for a new Unibet account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $500 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $500

New players only. Terms & conditions apply. 21+. VA only.

BetMGM

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new BetMGM & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

FanDuel Sportsbook

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new FanDuel Sportsbook account & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

DraftKings

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Deposit Bonus!

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account & deposit

DraftKings will match 20% of your deposit up to $1,000 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $500

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

Monkey Knife Fight

$100

Claim 100% Instant Deposit Match up to $100!

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

Yahoo DFS

$25

Get $25 in Site Credit With Yahoo DFS When You Deposit $5!

Register for a new account with Yahoo DFS and deposit $5+

Enter a $5 DFS contest

Upon entry, you will receive a bonus $25 in credit into your account!

21+ and new players only. Full terms available from Yahoo DFS.

TVG

$200

Get Your First Single-Horse Win Wager Back Up to $200 if you don't win

Register for a new TVG account and make a deposit

Place your first single horse win-type bet up to $200

If your horse doesn't win you'll get a refund up to $300

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.

TwinSpires

$200

Get a $200 Sign-Up Bonus with Twinspires Racebook!

Open your TwinSpires.com account using offer code BET200

$200 bonus cash will be credited in increments of $100 for every $400 wagered

To earn the full $200 bonus players must wager $800 within 30 days

21+. Terms and conditions apply.