UFC predictions, picks, best bets and three-fight parlay for UFC 253

UFC fighter Jan Blachowicz will take on Dominick Reyes at UFC 253 in Abu Dhabi
Photo of Matthew Lowrimore

Matthew Lowrimore

UFC· 1 year ago

Show Bio

Matthew has been with Pickswise for over a year now, covering a wide variety of sports. His main passion is college football and that is the sport he has covered the most. Matthew uses a variety of methods to handicap games, including stats, trends, injuries, and situational factors. His goal is to consistently give out winners and will do everything he can to make his readers money.

This week the Main Event at UFC 253 will feature a Middleweight title fight and an Interim title fight in the Light Heavyweight division. There are some huge favorites among this event, so looking for a parlay could be the best way to find the most value.

Here is our favorite three-fight parlay that pays at odds of +355. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC 253 predictions for the full 11-fight card.

Juan Espino Money Line (-300)

Juan Espino looks to be an extremely promising prospect, starting his MMA career 10-1 and 1-0 in the UFC. He has not fought in the Octagon since November of 2018. Espino is still averaging 6.11 significant strikes per minute at an insane accuracy of 95%. He also absorbs just 1.11 strikes per minute. As good as his striking is, his grappling might be better. Espino is averaging 8.33 takedowns per every 15 minutes at an accuracy of 100%. He also averages 8.3 submission attempts during the same time period.

Hughes could be in trouble if he does not get back on track soon. He is 10-3 in the MMA, but 0-2 in the UFC. Hughes is averaging 4.34 strikes per minute, but landing them at just 51%. He absorbs 3.77 strikes, so much more than Espino. His grappling game is not as defined, averaging just 0.78 takedowns per every 15 minutes.

Espino is clearly the better fighter here and has seven finishes in his career. I like Espino to win this fight without any issue.

Shane Young/Ludovit Klein: Fight to go the Distance – No (156)

Shane Young comes into this fight 13-4 in the MMA and 2-1 in the UFC. After losing his UFC debut, he has now won two fights in a row. Young has been a high-volume striker, averaging 6.10 strikes per minute. The issue here is that he absorbs 5.09 strikes.

Klein will make his UFC debut here, after starting 16-2 in the MMA. He has won seven fights in a row, and has not lost since 2017. The most impressive part of Klein’s style is his ability to finish his opponents. Of his 16 career wins, 15 have come inside the distance. He has seven wins by KO/TKO and eight by submission.

Young also has a good finish rate, finishing 10 of his 13 wins, six by KO/TKO and four by submission. As a result, I am going to look for this fight to end inside the distance.

Hakeem Dwodu Money Line (+108)

Hakeem Dawodu enters this fight 11-1-1 in the MMA and 4-1 in the UFC. He lost his UFC debut back in March of 2018, but has since won four fights in a row. His most recent fight saw him beat Julio Arce back in November of 2019. Dawodu is exclusively a striker, averaging 5.28 strikes per minute. It is also important to note that his striking defense is 64% and he is absorbing an average of 2.31 strikes per minute. He has very little grappling ability, but most importantly, he defends takedowns 85% of the time.

Tukhugov is a low volume striker, landing just 2.58 strikes per minute. Like his opponent, Tukhugov absorbs very little damage, just 2.07 strikes per minute. He will be looking to take this fight to the ground, averaging 2.88 takedowns per every 15 minutes.

Dawondu is a much better striker and that looks to be the difference here. I also like his ability to keep this fight standing and to take away the takedown ability of Tukhugov. Therefore, I will look for Dwandu to keep his win streak alive and will take him to win this fight.

See All
DraftKings

$200

Bet $5 on the NFL, Get $200!

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account

Bet $5+ on the Money Line of any NFL game

If your team wins, you will be issued a $200 free bet bonus!

Must be 21+ located in AZ, CO, CT, IA, IL, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WY or WV to play. Offer valid only for new customers. Full terms available at DraftKings Sportsbook.

FanDuel Sportsbook

$150

Bet $5, Win $150 CASH on the Cardinals vs. Texans!

Register for a new account with FanDuel Sportsbook and make a deposit of $10+

Bet $5 on the Cardinals vs. Texans

If you pick the winner correctly, you win $150 in CASH!

21+ and new players only. Max bet $5, max reward $150. Must deposit $10+ to be eligible for promotion. Full terms available on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Unibet

$50

Bet $5, Win $50 if Your Team Makes a 3-Pointer!

Sign up for a new account with Unibet and make your first deposit

Bet $5 on any NBA team to win their next game

If your team hits a 3-pointer during the game, you win a bonus $50 - regardless of the game's outcome!

Max bet $5. 21+ and new players only. Full terms available from Unibet.

DraftKings

$200

Bet $5 on the NBA, Get $200!

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account

Bet $5+ on the Money Line of any NBA Basketball game

If your team wins, you will be issued a $200 free bet bonus!

Must be 21+ located in AZ, CO, CT, IA, IL, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WY or WV to play. Offer valid only for new customers. Full terms available at DraftKings Sportsbook.

BetMGM

$200

Bet $10, Get $200 If Your Team Scores A Touchdown!

Register for a new BetMGM account & deposit $20+

Bet $10 on your team to win Money Line

Win $200 in free bets if your team scores a touchdown

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

PointsBet

$200

Bet $20, Get $200 If Your Team Scores A Touchdown!

Register for a new PointsBet account & deposit $20+

Bet $20 on your team to win Money Line (NFL or NCAAF)

Win $200 in free bets if your team scores a touchdown

Caesars Sportsbook

$5,000

Get a $5,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new Caesars Sportsbook account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $5,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose - up to $5,000!

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

BetRivers

$250

Get a $250 Deposit Bonus!

Sign up for a new BetRivers account using promo code PICKSWISE

Make a deposit & get it doubled up to $250 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $100

Must be 21+. Play in IA Only. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-BETS OFF

BetMGM

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new BetMGM & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

FanDuel Sportsbook

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new FanDuel Sportsbook account & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

DraftKings

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Deposit Bonus!

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account & deposit

DraftKings will match 20% of your deposit up to $1,000 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $500

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

Unibet

$500

Get a $500 Risk-Free Bet!

Register for a new Unibet account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $500 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $500

New players only. Terms & conditions apply. 21+. VA only.

Monkey Knife Fight

$100

Claim 100% Instant Deposit Match up to $100!

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

TVG

$300

Get a $300 Risk-Free Bet with TVG Racebook!

Register for a new TVG account and make a deposit

Place your first single horse win-type bet up to $300

If your horse doesn't win you'll get a refund up to $300

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.

BetAmerica Racing

$200

$200 Sign Up Bonus!

Fast, reliable and fast payouts - you'll have your money in 72 hours, if not sooner!

Proud history of providing safe, secure, and fun betting to American patrons

BetAmerica is owned by the iconic Churchill Downs Incorporated, home of 150 years of wagering history and the world-famous Kentucky Derby

Players who sign up using ‘BET200’ code will get a $200 sign up bonus. Offer valid for 7 days after registering on BetAmerica Racing product only. 21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.

TwinSpires

$200

Get a $200 Sign Up Bonus with TwinSpires Racebook!

Register for a new Twinspires account using offer code BET200

Make a deposit and start wagering on horse racing

Earn $100 in bonus cash for every $400 wagered!

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.