UFC Predictions: UFC Fight Night 176 Overeem vs. Sakai picks and best bets

Ovince Saint Preux (red gloves) fights Dominick Reyes
Photo of Matthew Lowrimore

Matthew Lowrimore

UFC

Show Bio

Matthew has been with Pickswise for a while now, covering a wide variety of sports. His main passions are college football and UFC, and those are the sports he has covered the most. Matthew uses a variety of methods to handicap games, including stats, trends, injuries, and situational factors. His goal is to consistently give out winners and will put in the research to try and achieve this.

This weeks’ card will feature a five-round Main Event between two Heavyweights looking to make their case for a shot at the title.

We’ll share our UFC Fight Night 176 best bets here but head over to our main UFC Fight Night 176 predictions homepage, if you want, picks for every fight on the main and preliminary card. Please gamble responsibly when following our MMA picks and predictions.

UFC Fight Night 176 Best Bets

Main Card

Ovince Saint Preux Money Line (+116)

Saint Preux comes into this fight 24-14 in the MMA and 12-9 in the UFC. He tried his luck in the Heavyweight division last time out, but lost to Ben Rothwell. This fight was back in May of this year and the fight ended in a split decision loss. Saint Preux now returns to where he is more comfortable, the Light Heavyweight division. He is not exactly a great striker, averaging 2.60 significant strikes per minute. He absorbs 2.91 strikes per minute, so his defense is solid. While he did not land a takedown in his recent Heavyweight fight, Saint Preux averages 1.27 takedowns per every 15 minutes, but only at an accuracy of 40%.

Alonzo Menifield is coming off the first loss of his career, a loss back in June of this year to Devin Clark by unanimous decision. Menifield is a decent striker, averaging 3.75 significant strikes per minute. He absorbs 3.75 strikes as well, which could be worrisome against a guy like Saint Preux with knockout power.

With Saint Preux making the move back to Light Heavyweight, I think he has the edge here. Menefield looked exhausted in his last fight as well, seeing that it did not end in the first round, so my pick would be Ovince Saint Preux.

Michel Pereira Money Line (-116)

Michel Pereira comes in with a record of 23-11 in the MMA, but just 1-2 in the UFC. His striking is pretty average, landing 3.04 significant strikes per minute. As for his grappling, he is landing an average of 2.00 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 57%, while his takedown defense is a perfect 100%. Pereira has a total of 16 finishes in his career, 10 by TKO/KO, but just one finish in the UFC.

Zelim Imadaev is still searching for that first win inside the Octagon. His striking is decent, averaging 3.69 significant strikes per minute. The main issue is his 41% accuracy. Also, he absorbs more damage at 3.37 strikes, but has only been knocked out once (his last fight).

Due to a more balanced style from Pereira, I will look his way to get the win.

Preliminary Card

Alexander Romanov Money Line (-142)

Alexander Romanov puts his perfect 11-0 record on the line here as he makes his UFC debut. What is most impressive about Romanov is his ability to finish his fights. Five career wins by KO/TKO and six wins by submission means he has never gone the distance in a fight. Also, nine of his 11 fights have ended in the first round, so Romanov will be looking to make a statement early.

Marcos Rogerio De Lima is the much more experienced fighter and will be looking to keep this fight standing. He averages 3.78 significant strikes per minute at an accuracy of 54%. His grappling is not as prevalent, averaging just 0.76 takedowns per every 15 minutes at an accuracy of 60%. More concerning is his takedown defense, which is 36%. Also, it is worth noting that his last four losses have all come by submission, so if the fight moves to the ground, he is likely in a world of trouble.

Given De Lima’s struggles at stopping a submission attempt, I am going to back Romanov to make his first statement in the UFC.

Virginia Bonuses

See All
Unibet

$100

Get a $100 Risk-Free Bet!

Register for a new Unibet account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $100 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $100

New players only. Terms & conditions apply. 21+. VA only.

FanDuel Sportsbook

$1,000

Get a $1,000 No Sweat First Bet

Sign up for a new FanDuel Sportsbook account and make your first deposit of $10+

Place your first bet up to $1,000!

Get refunded if you lose up to $1,000

Must be 21+. First online real money wager only. $10 first deposit required. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable free bets that expire 14 days after receipt. See full terms at fanduel.com/sportsbook.

BetRivers

$500

Get a $500 Risk-Free Bet

Sign up for a new BetRivers account using promo code PICKSWISE

Make your first deposit & get up to $500 in free bets

To get $500 in free bets, wager $500

Must be 21+. Play in IA Only. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-BETS OFF

BetMGM

$200

Bet $10, Win $200 if Any NBA Team Hits a Three Pointer!

Sign up for a new betting account with BetMGM

Place a pre-game moneyline wager of at least $10 on a NBA game

Win $200 in free bets if any team hits a three pointer

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

DraftKings

$150

Bet $5 & Win $150 If Your First Moneyline Bet Wins!

Sign up for a new account with DraftKings Sportsbook and make your first deposit

Bet $5+ on the pre-game Moneyline in any sport

Win $200 if your team wins

Offer valid for new players only. Must be 21 years or older to play. Reward paid in site credit. Full terms available at DraftKings Sportsbook.

PointsBet

$800

Get 4x $200 In Free Bets

Sign up for a new PointsBet account

Bet up to $200 and If you lose, you get a refund

You will receive Free Bet(s) in the amount of the losing wager(s), up to $200 each for four days.

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

Caesars Sportsbook

$1,250

Get a $1,250 risk-free bet

Sign up for a new Caesars Sportsbook account

Place your first bet of $10 or more

If your first bet loses, you’ll receive a refund up to $1,250 from Caesars in free bets

21+. Terms and conditions apply.

BetMGM

$200

Bet $10, Get $200 if Any NHL Team Scores A Goal

Sign up for a new betting account with BetMGM

Place a pre-game moneyline wager of at least $10 on a NHL game

Win $200 in free bets if any teams scores a goal

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

BetMGM

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet

Register for a new BetMGM & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

PointsBet

$500

Get 5x $100 in Free Bets for Steelers vs. Colts!

Sign up for a new PointsBet account

Make a bet of up to $100 and receive a refund if you lose

Get this offer once a day for the first 5 days you sign up

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

DraftKings

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Deposit Bonus

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account & deposit

DraftKings will match 20% of your deposit up to $1,000 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $500

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

PointsBet

$2,000

Get $2,000 in Free Bets

Register for a new PointsBet account & deposit

Receive a free bet refund up to $500 if your first fixed odds bet loses

& a free bet refund up to $1,500 if your first two PointsBetting Wager loses

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

Monkey Knife Fight

$100

Claim Instant Deposit Match up to $100 + Free $5 game

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

TVG

$200

Get Your First Single-Horse Win Wager Back Up to $200 if you don't win

Register for a new TVG account and make a deposit

Place your first single horse win-type bet up to $200

If your horse doesn't win you'll get a refund up to $300

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.

TwinSpires

$200

Get a $200 Sign-Up Bonus with Twinspires Racebook!

Open your TwinSpires.com account using offer code BET200

$200 bonus cash will be credited in increments of $100 for every $400 wagered

To earn the full $200 bonus players must wager $800 within 30 days

21+. Terms and conditions apply.

Underdog Fantasy

$100

First deposit is 100% matched up to $100 with Underdog Fantasy

Sign up for a new account with Underdog Fantasy

Make your first deposit

Every dollar (up to $100) will be matched! Deposit $25, get $50; deposit $100, get $200, etc

Must be 21+ to play. Terms & conditions apply