UFC Predictions: UFC Fight Night 177 Waterson vs. Hill picks and parlays

Dec 7, 2019; Washington, DC, USA; Billy Quarantillo (red gloves) after his win over Jacob Kilburn (not pictured) during UFC Fight Night at Capital One Arena.
Photo of Matthew Lowrimore

Matthew Lowrimore

UFC· 1 year ago

Show Bio

Matthew has been with Pickswise for over a year now, covering a wide variety of sports. His main passion is college football and that is the sport he has covered the most. Matthew uses a variety of methods to handicap games, including stats, trends, injuries, and situational factors. His goal is to consistently give out winners and will do everything he can to make his readers money.

This week the Main Event at UFC Fight Night 177 will feature two Strawweights fighting for the chance to make a claim for the title. There are some huge favorites among this event, so looking for a parlay could be the best way to find the most value.

Here is our favorite three-fight parlay that pays at odds of +175. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC Fight Night 177 predictions for the full 13-fight card.

Billy Quarantillo Money Line (-220)

Billy Quarantillo comes into this fight 14-2 in the MMA and 2-0 so far in the UFC. He recently beat Spike Carlyle by unanimous decision back in May of this year. Quarantillo is by far more comfortable when standing up in a fight. He averages an impressive 7.43 significant strikes per minute, landing them with 79% accuracy. Usually when someone has this much striking ability, it means their striking defense is lacking. However, that is not the case here as Quarantillo absorbs just 2.82 strikes per minute.

Nelson is 13-3 in his MMA career and 1-2 in the UFC. He was finally able to pick up that first UFC win in his most recent fight, a TKO win against Marco Polo Reyes back in September of 2019. When it comes to striking, there is a lot more concern for Nelson. He averages just 2.73 significant strikes per minute, landing them at 36%. He also absorbs 6.35 strikes per minute and has already been finished twice in the UFC. His takedown ability does not help his case either, landing an average of 1.41 at just 16%.

Quarantillo looks like a real good prospect and I like him to dominate this fight.

Bobby Green Money Line (-270)

Bobby Green has already fought twice since the pandemic started, winning both fights by unanimous decision. Green is mainly a striker, averaging 5.22 significant strikes per minute. He lands his strikes at 50% accuracy, absorbing 3.52 strikes. Green can also grapple, averaging 1.33 takedowns per every 15 minutes, but only landing them at 36%. He does defend takedowns at 73%, so that is good news.

Patrick comes into this fight 15-2 in the MMA and 5-2 in the UFC. He has not fought since October 2018, getting knocked-out by Scott Holtzman. His striking is not very good at all, averaging just 1.88 significant strikes per minute.

With the layoff for Patrick, I will back Green to win this fight.

Mike Rodriguez Money Line (-260)

Mike Rodriguez is 11-4 in the MMA and 2-2 in the UFC after he beat Marcin Prachnio by TKO back in August of this year. He is better striker than Herman, averaging 4.59 significant strikes per minute. It does mean he absorbs more at 3.58.

Ed Herman comes in as the veteran of the two fighters, posting an MMA record of 26-14 and a record of 12-10 in the UFC. After having lost three fights in a row recently, Herman has bounced back by winning two in a row. His most recent win coming against Khadis Ibragimov back in November of 2019. He is a decent striker, averaging 3.33 significant strikes per minute. He absorbs just 3.13 strikes, but has been knocked out three times in his career.

Rodriguez has seen all 11 of his wins finish inside the distance and I think he will win here.

See All
DraftKings

$200

Bet $5 on the NFL, Get $200!

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account

Bet $5+ on the Money Line of any NFL game

If your team wins, you will be issued a $200 free bet bonus!

Must be 21+ located in AZ, CO, CT, IA, IL, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WY or WV to play. Offer valid only for new customers. Full terms available at DraftKings Sportsbook.

FanDuel Sportsbook

$150

Bet $5, Win $150 CASH on the Cardinals vs. Texans!

Register for a new account with FanDuel Sportsbook and make a deposit of $10+

Bet $5 on the Cardinals vs. Texans

If you pick the winner correctly, you win $150 in CASH!

21+ and new players only. Max bet $5, max reward $150. Must deposit $10+ to be eligible for promotion. Full terms available on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Unibet

$50

Bet $5, Win $50 if Your Team Makes a 3-Pointer!

Sign up for a new account with Unibet and make your first deposit

Bet $5 on any NBA team to win their next game

If your team hits a 3-pointer during the game, you win a bonus $50 - regardless of the game's outcome!

Max bet $5. 21+ and new players only. Full terms available from Unibet.

DraftKings

$200

Bet $5 on the NBA, Get $200!

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account

Bet $5+ on the Money Line of any NBA Basketball game

If your team wins, you will be issued a $200 free bet bonus!

Must be 21+ located in AZ, CO, CT, IA, IL, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WY or WV to play. Offer valid only for new customers. Full terms available at DraftKings Sportsbook.

BetMGM

$200

Bet $10, Get $200 If Your Team Scores A Touchdown!

Register for a new BetMGM account & deposit $20+

Bet $10 on your team to win Money Line

Win $200 in free bets if your team scores a touchdown

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

PointsBet

$200

Bet $20, Get $200 If Your Team Scores A Touchdown!

Register for a new PointsBet account & deposit $20+

Bet $20 on your team to win Money Line (NFL or NCAAF)

Win $200 in free bets if your team scores a touchdown

Caesars Sportsbook

$5,000

Get a $5,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new Caesars Sportsbook account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $5,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose - up to $5,000!

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

BetRivers

$250

Get a $250 Deposit Bonus!

Sign up for a new BetRivers account using promo code PICKSWISE

Make a deposit & get it doubled up to $250 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $100

Must be 21+. Play in IA Only. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-BETS OFF

BetMGM

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new BetMGM & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

FanDuel Sportsbook

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new FanDuel Sportsbook account & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

DraftKings

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Deposit Bonus!

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account & deposit

DraftKings will match 20% of your deposit up to $1,000 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $500

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

Unibet

$500

Get a $500 Risk-Free Bet!

Register for a new Unibet account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $500 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $500

New players only. Terms & conditions apply. 21+. VA only.

Monkey Knife Fight

$100

Claim 100% Instant Deposit Match up to $100!

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

TVG

$300

Get a $300 Risk-Free Bet with TVG Racebook!

Register for a new TVG account and make a deposit

Place your first single horse win-type bet up to $300

If your horse doesn't win you'll get a refund up to $300

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.

BetAmerica Racing

$200

$200 Sign Up Bonus!

Fast, reliable and fast payouts - you'll have your money in 72 hours, if not sooner!

Proud history of providing safe, secure, and fun betting to American patrons

BetAmerica is owned by the iconic Churchill Downs Incorporated, home of 150 years of wagering history and the world-famous Kentucky Derby

Players who sign up using ‘BET200’ code will get a $200 sign up bonus. Offer valid for 7 days after registering on BetAmerica Racing product only. 21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.

TwinSpires

$200

Get a $200 Sign Up Bonus with TwinSpires Racebook!

Register for a new Twinspires account using offer code BET200

Make a deposit and start wagering on horse racing

Earn $100 in bonus cash for every $400 wagered!

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.