Week 15 Same Game Parlay: Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos (+2609)

Photo of Dylan Ruhl

Dylan Ruhl

NFL · 1 year ago

Show Bio

I lived in Italy for three years in college and learned the art of sports betting while I was there. Now I’m back in the States, and I want to share all the knowledge I acquired in one of the sports betting capitals of the world. Bills Mafia!!

The most recent team to win the AFC East is the New England Patriots. The most recent team other than the Patriots is the Miami Dolphins. The most recent team other than the Patriots and Dolphins is the New York Jets. And the most recent team other than the Patriots, Dolphins, and Jets is the Indianapolis Colts.

The Buffalo Bills, who haven’t won a division title since the East switched from five teams to four, have a chance to end that streak on Saturday. A win in Denver and they’ll clinch their first division title since 1995. The champagne will be on ice at Mile High, and you can also give yourself a chance to celebrate by playing a same-game parlay. Here’s what we recommend.

Bills -5 spread (-110)

Zack Moss anytime touchdown scorer (+250)

Melvin Gordon over 52.5 rushing yards (-112)

Dawson Knox over 25.5 receiving yards (-112)

While the combined individual odds of each of these props totals +2288, FanDuel is offering this parlay at +2609. Let’s break it down one by one.

Bills -5 spread (-110)

The Bills know the stakes on Saturday – win and they won’t have to worry about the Miami Dolphins the rest of the way. Their fate is in their own hands, and the possibility of hosting a playoff game in Western New York, even without fans in attendance, is enough to motivate this team to bring its A-game to clinch the division before Miami even takes the field. The Broncos are a better team than their 5-8 record – they’d sweep the entire AFC East with a win on Saturday, but Buffalo showed last week that they’re one of the most dominant teams in the league. Expect a statement win for the Bills.

Zack Moss anytime touchdown scorer (+250)

While Josh Allen did go to college in Wyoming, he hasn’t taken many reps in altitude the past three years. The Broncos’ defense is one of the worst in the league against the run, whereas they’re top ten against the pass. Look for the Bills to use the ground game more than usual. Devin Singletary should still get the most touches, so don’t look to Moss for any yardage props. But it’s Moss who the Bills like to turn to in short-yardage situations, including goal-to-go efforts. He’s a good bet to find the end zone.

Melvin Gordon over 52.5 rushing yards (-112)

Gordon has received the most touches out of the Denver backfield for three weeks in a row. He’s also gone well over his prop total in three of his past four games. People often associate this Bills team with good defense, but while their secondary is elite, their run defense still remains a weakness, and a team like Denver, with multiple rushing options, will look to exploit that. Both Gordon and Phillip Lindsay were limited participants in practice this week and are questionable to play, but assuming they do, Gordon should surpass 53 rushing yards if he plays the whole game.

Dawson Knox over 25.5 receiving yards (-112)

Second-year tight end Dawson Knox is quickly becoming another one of Allen’s favorite targets. Knox has caught touchdowns in two of his past three games since returning from the Covid list, and while he won’t put up a crazy statline, it takes just two completions across the middle of the field over the course of the game to hit such a low over. Fellow tight end Lee Smith’s status is up in the air, so Knox, who’s the Bills’ top choice anyway, should see even more snaps on Saturday.

Pickswise is the home of free NFL picks. Check out the latest NFL props and NFL parlays as well as expert underdog predictions and computer picks.

Virginia Bonuses

See All
FanDuel Sportsbook

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk-Free Bet

Sign up for a new FanDuel Sportsbook account and make your first deposit of $10+

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

Must be 21+. First online real money wager only. $10 first deposit required. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable free bets that expire 14 days after receipt. See full terms at fanduel.com/sportsbook.

DraftKings

$200

Bet $5+ On Any NFL Pre-Game ML, Get $200 If Your Bet Wins

Sign up for a new account with DraftKings Sportsbook and make your first deposit

Bet $5+ on any NFL pre-game ML

Win $200 if your team wins

Offer valid for new players only. Must be 21 years or older to play. Reward paid in site credit. Full terms available at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Unibet

$100

Get a $100 Risk-Free Bet!

Register for a new Unibet account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $100 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $100

New players only. Terms & conditions apply. 21+. VA only.

PointsBet

$800

Get 4x $200 In Free Bets

Sign up for a new PointsBet account

Bet up to $200 and If you lose, you get a refund

You will receive Free Bet(s) in the amount of the losing wager(s), up to $200 each for four days.

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

Caesars Sportsbook

$1,250

Get a $1,250 risk-free bet

Sign up for a new Caesars Sportsbook account

Place your first bet of $10 or more

If your first bet loses, you’ll receive a refund up to $1,250 from Caesars in free bets

21+. Terms and conditions apply.

BetMGM

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet

Register for a new BetMGM & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

BetRivers

$500

Get Your First Bet Risk-Free Up To $500

Sign up for a new BetRivers account using promo code PICKSWISE

Make your first deposit & get up to $500 in free bets

To get $500 in free bets, wager $500

Must be 21+. Play in IA Only. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-BETS OFF

DraftKings

$100

Bet $5+ on MLB and get $100 in Free Bets Instantly!

Sign up for a new account with DraftKings Sportsbook and make your first deposit

Bet $5+ on any MLB team to win their next game

Win $100 no matter what!

Offer valid for new players only. Must be 21 years or older to play. Reward paid in site credit. Full terms available at DraftKings Sportsbook.

PointsBet

$500

Get 5x $100 in Free Bets With PointsBet's Second Chance

Sign up for a new PointsBet account

Make a bet of up to $100 and receive a refund if you lose

Get this offer once a day for the first 5 days you sign up

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

DraftKings

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Deposit Bonus!

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account & deposit

DraftKings will match 20% of your deposit up to $1,000 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $500

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

PointsBet

$2,000

Get $2,000 in Free Bets

Register for a new PointsBet account & deposit

Receive a free bet refund up to $500 if your first fixed odds bet loses

& a free bet refund up to $1,500 if your first two PointsBetting Wager loses

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

Monkey Knife Fight

$100

Claim Instant Deposit Match up to $100 + Free $5 game

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

Yahoo DFS

$25

Get $25 in Site Credit With Yahoo DFS When You Deposit $5!

Register for a new account with Yahoo DFS and deposit $5+

Enter a $5 DFS contest

Upon entry, you will receive a bonus $25 in credit into your account!

21+ and new players only. Full terms available from Yahoo DFS.

TVG

$200

Get Your First Single-Horse Win Wager Back Up to $200 if you don't win

Register for a new TVG account and make a deposit

Place your first single horse win-type bet up to $200

If your horse doesn't win you'll get a refund up to $300

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.

TwinSpires

$200

Get a $200 Sign-Up Bonus with Twinspires Racebook!

Open your TwinSpires.com account using offer code BET200

$200 bonus cash will be credited in increments of $100 for every $400 wagered

To earn the full $200 bonus players must wager $800 within 30 days

21+. Terms and conditions apply.