Where will Aaron Rodgers play in 2021? Betting odds and predictions

Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) after a touchdown against the New Orleans Saints
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Andrew Ortenberg

NFL

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I'm an NFL handicapper here at Pickswise who was raised in a household full of sports fanatics. Since I unfortunately never had LeBron James' jumping ability I wasn't able to make it to the NBA, and chose writing about sports as the next best thing. An avid sports bettor myself, I'm excited to get to write about the industry as it gets set to take off across the country. Buckle up.

The NFL Draft was this past weekend, but that’s not what garnered most of the headlines. Instead, the drama surrounding Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers took center stage. Reports suddenly emerged that the reigning MVP wanted out of Green Bay, and the situation quickly devolved.

Rodgers is reportedly at odds with the front office, and wants a trade. If he can’t get that trade, he’s threatening to retire. It’s all of a sudden one of the biggest NFL stories in recent memory, and the saga is only getting started. If the Packers do relent and trade Rodgers, there won’t be any shortage of interested teams.

DraftKings is now offering odds on where Rodgers will be playing next season, and that’s what we’re looking at today. Let’s dive in:

Green Bay Packers -125

Denver Broncos +200

Las Vegas Raiders +500

New Orleans Saints +900

Carolina Panthers +1000

Miami Dolphins +1400

Washington Football Team +1400

San Francisco 49ers +1600

Seattle Seahawks +1600

All other teams are 20/1 or higher. It’s interesting to see the Broncos be such a (relative) heavy favorite compared to the rest of the field. There was a report from a radio host in Denver that a deal was close over the weekend, but obviously, that turned out not to be true. When reports of a trade demand first emerged, Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk reported that the Broncos, Raiders, and 49ers were on Rodgers’ wishlist in no particular order.

Obviously, the 49ers then drafted Trey Lance, which is why they’re sitting at 16/1. The Broncos have been searching for an answer at quarterback since Peyton Manning retired, and they clearly don’t think Drew Lock is it. They also aren’t married to Teddy Bridgewater long-term after trading for him this offseason.

The Raiders have Derek Carr coming off a career year, but Jon Gruden has never seemed overly enamored with him. The thought of Rodgers teaming up with Sean Payton in New Orleans is undeniably fun. But it appears Payton is quite comfortable with Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill.

The Panthers were set to make an aggressive push for Deshaun Watson, but then they settled for Sam Darnold. Miami insists they’re happy with Tua Tagovailoa. Washington needs a quarterback of the future, but they did sign Ryan Fitzpatrick. A Russell Wilson for Rodgers swap would surely break everyone’s brains.

Now that we’ve broken down what’s standing in the way, let’s talk about how I see it playing out:

Aaron Rodgers best bets

I’m not sure I’m going to touch this prop given the uncertainty of the situation. If I did, it would probably have to be the Packers at -125. Boring, I know. But getting pretty much even money sounds a lot better than trying to guess which team would pull it off. Just a couple of months ago, Rodgers was looking for an extension from the team, and although things have gotten ugly I don’t think it’s completely unsalvageable.

I’m certainly not touching the Broncos at such short odds. If I was going to make a wager on a team, it would either be the Raiders at +500 or the Panthers at +1000. 

There have been reports of a potential overhaul in the Raiders’ front office. If Gruden seizes more power, I could see him selling the farm to land Rodgers. Rodgers apparently has interest in playing there, and it would be a coup for owner Mark Davis as he prepares to welcome fans to his new stadium in Las Vegas for the first time.

Gruden wants to take more big swings, and it wouldn’t get much bigger than this. The Packers might be willing to take Carr in a trade, knowing they could flip him to another quarterback-needy team and then start Jordan Love.

Reporting all offseason indicated the Panthers were going to be extremely aggressive. New owner David Tepper has acknowledged as such. They were rumored to be preparing a big push for Watson before that situation got put on ice by his sexual harassment allegations.

I don’t think Tepper and head coach Matt Rhule would pass on Rodgers just because of Darnold. They didn’t give up a first-rounder for him, and they’ve still got plenty of ammo to use in a package for Green Bay. A lot of people still thought they would draft a quarterback eighth overall even after acquiring Darnold, so I certainly wouldn’t rule them out here.

Can’t wait for the NFL season to begin? Well, luckily Pickswise is also the home of free MLB predictions, NBA predictions , and NHL predictions.

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