Caleb Wilfinger
XFL
Show Bio
Following an eventful opening month, Week 4 of the XFL season takes place this weekend with 4 more matchups. Spring football is back in a big way, and with that comes a number of ways to bet on the action. I have combed through the board and found a few edges that I believe can create a parlay with an excellent payout of 14/1 odds!
Let’s take a look at my 3-team mega parlay for Week 4, but make sure you also check out our XFL predictions for the weekend’s biggest games.
St. Louis Battlehawks -4 (-110)
Seattle Sea Dragons -4.5 (-110)
Orlando Guardians ML (+320)
Parlay odds: +1400
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St. Louis Battlehawks -4 (-110) over Arlington Renegades
To start off this mega parlay, we’re going with the Battlehawks to cover the 4-point spread. St. Louis has been getting some of the league’s best quarterback play from AJ McCarron. McCarron had 4 touchdowns last week and is one of the only signal-callers in the league with genuine NFL experience. It hasn’t been nearly as smooth sailing for Arlington’s passing game, though. Drew Plitt was their starter in their first 2 games and was mostly a disaster, averaging 5.4 yards per attempt. Former NFL preseason darling Kyle Sloter got the start in Week 3 and wasn’t much better as he threw for just 124 yards.
The ground game was even worse in that matchup against Orlando, as they averaged only 2.4 yards per rush attempt. St. Louis also has plenty of talent on defense, and linebacker Willie Harvey is leading the league in tackles. They’ve even potentially got an edge on special teams, as Darrius Shepherd is leading the league in kick-return yardage and it isn’t even close. Shepherd is at 351 yards, and nobody else is even at more than 207. Arlington has been held to 14 points or fewer in back-to-back games, and now they’re going on the road for a tough game. The Battlehawks have played each of their first 3 games away from home and this is their first home game, which is another factor that has us leaning in their direction.
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Seattle Sea Dragons -4.5 (-110) over San Antonio Brahmas
For our second leg, we’re going with the Sea Dragons to cover the 4.5-point spread. Seattle has already proved that its a high-scoring team in this league and won 30-26 over Vegas last week. The Sea Dragons are led by former Cowboys quarterback Ben DiNucci, who had a 78% completion percentage for 377 yards and 4 touchdowns. They are looking to win again to move to .500 on the year. The Brahmas ran up against a buzzsaw last week in the Roughnecks, who have not lost a game. They have taken a rushing approach to the game and have 2-star running backs in Jacques Patrick and Kalen Ballage. Ultimately, their rushing attack is not likely to be enough to keep up with the high-powered offense of the Sea Dragons on the road. Take Seattle to cover at home.
Orlando Guardians ML (+320) over Houston Roughnecks
To close out our mega parlay, we’re taking a big swing with the Guardians money line. Houston has been the toast of the league, rattling off 3 straight wins, and oddsmakers have the Roughnecks as 8.5-point favorites for this game. The Roughnecks have had success, no doubt about it, but they simply shouldn’t be this large of a road favorite. Roughnecks quarterback Brandon Silvers had his best game of the season last week, and they still put up only 22 points.
The Roughnecks only won the first meeting against Orlando due to a few fluke turnovers. The Guardians were still figuring things out on offense and at quarterback, shuffling between Paxton Lynch and Quinten Dormady under center. The Guardians have now stabilized a bit, and Lynch is fully running the show. The former NFL first-round pick played fairly well last week, not throwing any interceptions and averaging over 7 yards per attempt while also adding 43 yards and a touchdown with his legs. The Guardians lost by only a single point on the road last week, so they have value at this price.
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