Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions Prediction, Odds and NFL Picks for Sunday, 10/25/26

Both matchups last season saw different results from a totals perspective. In the 2025 season opener at Lambeau Field, the Lions scored their only touchdown in the final minute of a 27-13 blowout loss on a 47.5 total. The second meeting on Thanksgiving in Detroit saw seven TDs, including six combined passing TDs from Jordan Love and Jared Goff.

The Packers are riding a three-game under streak after allowing 34 total points in this stretch. Green Bay easily drilled the under of 54.5 points last Sunday night against Dallas in a 23-13 win, the highest total the Packers have seen this season.

The Lions are a perfect 5-0 to the over this season, including a 3-0 mark on totals of 50 or higher. In two games with 55.5 totals, Detroit hit the over with ease in a 41-31 loss in Week 2 at Buffalo and a 45-21 blowout at Arizona prior to the bye week.

The Lions have been horrible defensively through five games, ranking 28th in EPA/Pass, 29th in EPA/Rush, and 28th in success rate. Detroit is actually off its best defensive effort of the season, allowing 21 points to Arizona, which included a meaningless TD with two minutes left. The Lions have scored the third-most points in the NFL with 164, despite playing one fewer game than the Bills and 49ers, who are ahead of them. The Packers have scored 27+ points in four of the last five matchups with the Lions.

Detroit has combined for at least 60 points in four of five games, with its lowest combined total being 55 against a Jets’ squad that averages the sixth-fewest points in the NFL.

Packers vs Lions prediction: Over 53.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 54.5 (-110).

The NFC North and AFC North are the only two divisions that showcase four teams with winning records. Green Bay has recovered from a 1-2 start with three consecutive victories, while Detroit returns from the bye week off an impressive 45-21 blowout of Arizona.

The Packers were lit up for 35 points in an embarrassing Week 3 home loss to the Falcons, but Green Bay has allowed 34 points during its three-game winning streak. Detroit's offense hasn't been the issue this season, tied for the league lead with Buffalo, averaging 32.8 points per game. The defense has been a different story, giving up a league-worst 404.4 yards per contest and nearly 30 points per game.

Green Bay swept Detroit last season, beating the Lions at Lambeau Field, 27-13 and 31-24 at Ford Field on Thanksgiving. The underdog has covered in six of the last nine matchups, including two outright wins by Green Bay in the past three visits to Detroit.

The Lions will hope to take advantage of their running game behind Jahmyr Gibbs, as Detroit ranks eighth in EPA/Rush against a Packers’ defense that is 27th EPA/Rush. In last season’s two meetings, Gibbs was held to 87 rushing yards, while the former Alabama star has never posted a 100+ yard rushing game against Green Bay in six tries.

Detroit’s offense has not been stopped this season, but its defense can easily be exposed against QB Jordan Love, who threw six TDs and zero interceptions in the two wins over the Lions in 2025.

Packers vs Lions prediction: Packers +3.5 (-120) available at time of publishing. Playable to 3 (-110).