Indianapolis’ season has gone south rather quickly, while Dallas is trying to rebound from one of its worst meltdowns in franchise history. The Colts have traded several key players before the deadline as we wait to see what happens with star RB Jonathan Taylor. Indy’s last win came in London against Washington in Week 4, but the Colts have stumbled to four consecutive losses. Last Sunday, the Colts fell through a trapdoor in the first half at Jacksonville, trailing 28-0 at the half in a 42-7 defeat.
The Cowboys led the Cardinals 24-10 early in the fourth quarter before allowing 20 points to Arizona in an eventual 33-30 overtime defeat. Dallas has failed to win consecutive games this season, while suffering a pair of walk-off defeats during its 3-5 start. The defense continues to be horrible for Dallas, ranking 30th in EPA/Pass and EPA/Rush. The Colts have struggled as well trying to stop the run, sitting 29th in EPA/Rush, while giving up at least 100 rushing yards to four different running backs.
Dallas hasn’t won a game this season scoring fewer than 30 points, but has lost two other games when putting up 30+ points. The Colts have seen their scoring drop each week during their four-game slide, compiling 22, 20, 10, and 7 points. QB Daniel Jones has been intercepted at least once in seven of eight games and hasn’t thrown multiple TD passes in a game. The Colts haven’t been great as an underdog, failing to cover in three of five tries.
The one thing that killed the Cowboys in last week’s loss was allowing 11 explosive plays to Arizona. Prescott ranks third in EPA/dropback, while Jones sits 29th in the league among starting QBs with at least four starts. Dallas can still salvage its season with a run, while the Colts are cooked at this point.
Cowboys vs Colts prediction: Cowboys -5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 6 (-110).
Both teams have been profitable Over squads, simply because of how bad their defenses are. Yes, Dallas owns one of the best offenses in the league, but the main reason for its 6-2 Over mark is allowing 28+ points five times. The Colts are somehow 5-3 to the over despite their offensive woes recently, scoring 37 total points in the last three losses. Indy has given up 33 or more points four times and 17 or fewer points three times, so we’ll see which defense shows up for the Colts. Indianapolis sees its highest total of the season at 51.5, with its previous high sitting at 47.5 in the 41-23 season-opening defeat to Baltimore.
Dallas is 3-1 to the over in four games with totals of 50 or higher, aided by 33 combined points against Arizona in the fourth quarter last Sunday. Indianapolis has allowed the third-highest average points per game (27.8), which obviously jumped after giving up 42 last Sunday at Jacksonville. Cowboys QB Dak Prescott has seen his passing yards dip each of the past three games, capped off by 195 yards against Arizona. The Colts are yielding the 12th-fewest passing yards per game in the league, while giving up more than 230 passing yards once in the last six contests. The last three overs for Indianapolis came on totals of 45.5 or less, so this is a massive jump, even against a terrible Dallas defense.
Cowboys vs Colts prediction: Under 51.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 50.5 (-110).
