Steelers vs Bengals Player Props: Best Bets and Predictions

Sunday Night Football in Week 10 presents a headline matchup in every sense of the word. The Pittsburgh Steelers will head to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals with identical 6-2 records and four-game winning streaks atop the AFC North. Joe Burrow leads the second-highest scoring offense in the NFL while the Steelers counter with the third-best scoring defense, as Burrow and company look to avenge their 30-27 loss in Pittsburgh in Week 3. It won’t be easy though, with the Bengals coming off an international game and the Steelers coming off a bye week. 

Aaron Rodgers versus Joe Burrow awaits. Ahead of the action, here are my favorite player prop bets to make for Sunday Night Football, while you can get our NFL predictions for more traditional picks on sides and totals for every game this week and beyond. 

NFL Player Prop: Chase Brown (CIN) under 46.5 rushing yards (-113)

Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to 45. 

When these teams met earlier this season, Chase Brown had a line of 60.5 rushing yards, and he went over that mark by half a yard. Now, his line sits 14 yards lower, which should sound alarms in your head. There is no free lunch, which is exactly what this line looks like after 61 yards in their prior meeting, as well as back-to-back 50+ yard performances ahead of this contest.

Brown’s usage is low compared to other starting running backs, at least as a ball carrier – he gets plenty of targets out of the back field. In fact, with Burrow under center, the Bengals usually turn to him, especially when games are close, naturally limiting Brown’s carries. Now add the situational aspect of this game, with the Bengals coming off a week in Madrid and the Steelers coming off a bye. Pittsburgh will be, by far, the fresher team, which will matter significantly in the trenches. It may be difficult for Cincinnati’s line to create running lanes here, especially against a defensive front that ranks top six in EPA per rush, rushing success and stuff rate (SumerSports). Not to mention, Brown isn’t the most imposing running back – he’s 28th in the NFL in yards after contact per rush and missed tackles forced among running backs with at least 50 carries (PFF).

NFL Player Prop: Jaylen Warren (PIT) over 64.5 rushing yards (-113)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to 69.5.

The handicap with Jaylen Warren is similar to that of Brown’s, just opposite. Warren’s rushing yards prop closed at 55.5 ahead of his first meeting with the Bengals, and it has since been adjusted up – deservedly so. He tallied 127 rushing yards in that contest, which is one of four times he surpassed the century mark, including three of his last four games. 

With Pittsburgh’s rest advantage, I’m looking for Warren to run through some contact on Sunday night, especially in the cold. Unlike Brown, Warren can fight contact, sitting second in the NFL in yards after contact per attempt (4.14) among backs with at least 50 carries. His 5.9 yards per attempt leads the league, as does his breakaway rate (PFF).