Kansas State Wildcats vs Oklahoma Sooners Predictions

Tue 2/23 9:30 ET
Oklahoma Sooners
Kansas State
Kansas State Wildcats
Fred Bramlage Coliseum

Pickswise's Expert Predictions & Analysis

Point Spread Prediction
Game Totals Prediction

Point Spread Prediction

Oklahoma has climbed to No. 7 in the country following a multi-week stretch that has seen it go 8-1 straight up, but it’s not like a whole lot has changed over this time span. The Sooners are still one of the most disciplined squads in Division I, as their 15.3 percent turnover percentage ranks 11th in the country; this has been an on-going theme throughout the entire season. Similarly, the team continues to rely on Austin Reaves. The guard is averaging 16.8 points per game and 5.2 assists per game, and he’s accounted for 42 percent of his team’s field goals over the past three games. In other words, if Oklahoma is going to lose, it will only be against an equally talented roster that also minimizes mistakes. That explains why four of Oklahoma’s five losses have been to ranked opponents (Texas Tech twice, Baylor, and Kansas).

Kansas State isn’t one of those talented ranked opponents…far from it, actually. The team has lost 16 straight games against ranked opponents, and that will likely continue on Tuesday. The real question is if the Wildcats can cover; we’re not confident. Kansas State is an abysmal 3-12 against the spread at home this season, and they’re losing by about 11 points per game. Coincidently, the spread in this one is 11 points and assuming both teams play up to their normal standards, we don’t see how Kansas State could possibly cover in this one.

Game Totals Prediction

We previously discussed Reaves’ important role in the Oklahoma offense, but the rest of the team’s scorers leave much to be desired. De’Vion Harmon, Brady Manek, and Umoja Gibson are each averaging more than 10 points per game, but that trio is also shooting worse than 50 percent from the field (Gibson is the only one who is shooting better than 40 percent from three). Oklahoma is able to get the ball through the net–they are a top-10 team, after all–but that lack of efficiency is starting to have an influence on the over/under trends. Specifically, the total has gone under in 11 of Oklahoma’s last 16 games.

Speaking of offensive inefficiency, Kansas State is a prime example. No one on the squad is averaging more than 13 points per game (Nijel Pack leads the way with 12.3 ppg), and the team’s four leading scorers (Pack, Mike McGuirl, DeJuan Gordon, and Selton Miguel) are connecting on only 37 percent of their collective shots this season. Obviously that’s not a recipe for success. Those offensive deficiencies have made their way into the trends, as the total has gone under in four of Kansas State’s last six games. We’re taking the under on Tuesday.

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