MLB Picks

The Tigers and Reds have split the first 2 games of this series, making way for a rubber match on Sunday afternoon at Comerica Park. Wade Miley is slated to take the mound for Cincinnati. He will be making his 3rd start of the season, and the first 2 haven’t gone particularly well. The 38-year-old left-hander has allowed 11 hits and 7 earned runs in 7 innings, and he has just 2 strikeouts while issuing 4 walks. The Detroit bats were held in check on Saturday, but going up against Miley could present a decent matchup for the home team. The Tigers lead the league with a .274 batting average and rank 3rd with a .789 OPS against lefties so far this season.

Detroit’s Sawyer-Gipson Long has looked solid in a small sample size at the big league level. This season, he has 8 strikeouts to just 1 walk in 8.1 innings, and the Tigers have won both of his starts. In addition, Detroit has been strong at home all season long. A.J. Hinch’s squad owns a record of 24-9 at Comerica Park, and they’ve been great at finding the win column after a loss. In each of their last 6 losses, the Tigers have bounced back with a win. Take confidence backing the Tigers at home in this one.

Reds vs Tigers prediction: Tigers ML (-185) available at time of publishing. Playable to -200.

Zack Wheeler announced recently that he plans on retiring following the end of the 2027 season, giving Phillies fans and front office personnel plenty of time to grasp the idea of losing their ace. Wheeler has been tremendous in a Phillies uniform and will be sorely missed, but luckily there is are several starts to be made before that time comes. The veteran right-hander faces the Blue Jays tomorrow as the Phillies look to close out this 3-game set with a sweep on Sunday. An 8-0 win on Friday and a 3-2 win on Saturday have set them up well with their best starter on tap for Sunday. Wheeler boasts a 2.85 ERA through 82 innings this season with a 2.44 xERA and 2.97 FIP supporting his success. I expect a strong effort from Wheeler in this outing.

Jose Berrios is set to make his 15th start of the season for the Blue Jays, and the right-hander has been a model of consistency for his club with exactly 32 starts made in each of the last 4 years. So far through 82.2 innings Berrios has a 3.38 ERA, and despite underlying metrics that suggest eventual regression I don’t mind his matchup against the Phillies on Sunday. The absence of Bryce Harper leaves a hole in the middle of their order and Berrios enters in good form with 1 earned run allowed across his last 18.2 innings of work. Included in that span was 6 innings of 1-run ball against this Phillies lineup, and now he faces them on the road where he has a 2.50 ERA in 36 innings.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies predictions: Under 7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -115 odds.

Game 1 between the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Mets resulted in 12 runs with the Rays winning by a 7-5 final score. 12 more runs were scored in Game 2 with Tampa Bay once again winning. I favor the over on the posted game total of 8 for Game 3, as neither Shane Baz nor Griffin Canning enter this matchup in their best form of the season. Baz has a 4.97 ERA in 70.2 innings so far this season, allowing 13 total home runs so far and really struggling against right-handed batters. He displays shaky command of the zone at times and that could be problematic against a patient and powerful Mets lineup on Sunday.

Canning pitched very well to start the season for the Mets, but the right-hander has allowed 3 or more earned runs in 3 of his last 4 starts including 2 home runs and 4 earned runs to the Nationals in his last outing. He allowed 31 home runs last season with the Angels so there is history that he can be prone to allowing the deep ball. Both teams have worked their bullpens in this series and both offenses are in good form leaving me to favor the over in this matchup on Sunday.

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Mets predictions: Over 8 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -115 odds.

The Royals enter this Sunday afternoon contest against the Athletics riding a 5-game losing streak. They have managed to score just 9 total runs in that stretch, and the lack of offense has been a common theme for the Royals all season long. Kansas City has scored the fewest total runs in the American League, and their team OPS of .669 ranks 26th in all of baseball. In addition, they have hit the fewest home runs in the league so far this season. Kansas City will face Jeffrey Springs, and he has put together 5 quality starts over his last 6 outings. Look for Springs to hold the Kansas City offense in check in this one.

The Royals will send Noah Cameron to the mound. The 25-year-old left-hander has looked strong in the first 6 starts of his big league career. Cameron owns a strong 2.17 ERA and .165 BAA through 37.1 innings on the year. He had some trouble in his last outing, but he had allowed just 3 earned runs in his first 31.2 innings prior to that. All in all, this could be a low-scoring affair. Look to the under.

Athletics vs Royals prediction: Under 9 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable to -105.

I favor the Washington Nationals to win their matchup with the Miami Marlins on Saturday and snap their current 6-game losing streak. Washington lost the final 2 games of their series with the Rangers before being swept by the Mets and losing the first game of this current series. Miami is rolling with an opener for this game with Cade Gibson set to toss an inning or two to start the game. I have yet to see if a bulk reliever has been announced, but Miami’s bullpen is largely rested as a whole. Regardless, Washington has performed better offensively in their home park this season, and I expect them to produce some run support for their pitching staff today.

Trevor Williams is set to start for the Nationals, marking his 14th start of the season for the club. His surface-level 5.91 ERA is an atrocity, but his xERA of 3.98 and his 4.01 FIP indicate he has pitched far better than his ERA suggests. Miami has been better offensively than I expected this season, but that is not saying much as they still rank 23rd in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Williams should pitch decently enough in this spot for the Nationals to justify their price.

Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins predictions: Nationals ML (-126) available at time of publishing. Playable to -130 odds.

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The afternoon slate gets going with the Reds and Tigers. The Tigers took the first game in the series on Friday night, 11-5. This game was slow to produce runs early on, but the Tigers got to the Cincinnati bullpen in the middle innings to blow it open. On Saturday, we have a couple of solid and steady veterans on the mound, and I like their chances of having a quiet afternoon. I am playing the game total under 8 in this spot.

Jack Flaherty and Brady Singer have both been excellent this year. You can essentially pencil in Singer for 5 innings of work with 2 or 3 runs, and there is very little variance. Steady. Flaherty is on a run of 3 starts (18 innings) with only 1 run allowed. I feel good about these guys getting through 5 innings or so with very little damage. The lineups for both teams are young, and they both have really quiet days. I think this is one of them, playing an afternoon game in a pitcher-friendly park with a couple steady veterans on the bump. Give me the under on Saturday.

Reds vs Tigers Prediction: Under 8 (-115) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs are tied 1-1 in this series heading into Saturday afternoon’s contest at Wrigley Field in Chicago. Pittsburgh prevailed 2-1 in 10 innings on Friday, but it doesn’t take a genius to figure out why that game was so low scoring. Paul Skenes was on the mound for the visitors. With more hittable pitchers toeing the rubber for this one, my Pirates vs Cubs pick is Over 7.5.

Chicago should have much more success against Mike Burrows, who comes in with a 5.00 ERA and an anemic 17-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 18.0 innings of work. The Cubs are countering with Matthew Boyd, who is solid but unspectacular. He faced the Pirates on April 30 and was mediocre, allowing 2 earned runs on 6 hits and 3 walks in 5.0 innings. It’s true that Pittsburgh’s offense is underwhelming, but it did manage to score 17 runs in a recent 3-game series against Miami. The Cubs’ bats have been somewhat cool, but that is an aberration as opposed to the season-long rule. They are #2 in Major League Baseball in runs scored with 380, trailing only the Dodgers.

Pirates vs Cubs prediction: Over 7.5 (-119) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Jacob deGrom is pitching for the Texas Rangers today and the posted game total sits at 7.5. With the current form of the veteran right-hander and the advantageous matchup he has on paper, I expect a very strong effort from deGrom in this spot. He enters play with a 2.12 ERA in 76.1 innings of work, and he has not allowed more than 2 earned runs in any of his last 10 starts. deGrom command the zone extremely well which is big for this matchup because patience is one of the White Sox best offensive attributes as a team. I expect deGrom to shove in this spot.

The White Sox will start Mike Vasil again after he was used as an opener for the first time last week. Vasil has been used for 3 or more innings in 4 straight starts and could even be stretched out further eventually. While he has worrisome underlying metrics, Vasil’s 2.18 ERA in 41.1 innings should be good enough in a short spurt against an inconsistent and often poor Ranger’s offense. While there is no value on the side in this game, in my opinion, I do favor the under in this game.

Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers predictions: Under 7.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that price.

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From a sides and totals perspective my favorite angle in Saturday’s matchup between the Los Angeles Angels and Baltimore Orioles is the Angels to win the game as an underdog. Los Angeles is a +135 underdog today behind Tyler Anderson as they take on Tomoyuki Sugano of Baltimore. Anderson is not my favorite arm to back historically, but he has been decent this season and draws a favorable matchup against a lineup that is far worse when facing southpaw pitching. The veteran innings-eater faced Baltimore a little over a month ago, tossing 5 innings with 5 strikeouts and 1 earned run allowed. I think he can provide some solid innings for his club today.

Sugano has elite command of the strike zone, and I love the under on his 1.5 walks allowed prop today. That being said, the Angels rank 10th in wOBA with the 6th best hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days. Sugano tossed 7.1 scoreless innings in this matchup the first time around, but Jorge Soler and Mike Trout were both out in that game. Tomoyuki has allowed a home run in 4 of his 5 starts since that outing and could allow some runs in this spot. At current pricing I side with the Angels.

Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles predictions: Angels ML (+135) available at time of publishing. Playable at that price.

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The Phillies dominated the first game of this series with an 8-0 win on Friday night. Now, the Phillies and Blue Jays are set for a Saturday afternoon matchup at Citizens Bank Park. Despite laying an egg last night, the Blue Jays could be in a decent position to bounce back at the plate tonight. Toronto has excelled against left-handed pitching so far this season, and they will face the left-handed Christopher Sanchez for Philadelphia. The Blue Jays are hitting .269 as a team against southpaws, which is good for 3rd-best in baseball. Sanchez faced the Blue Jays earlier this month on June 3, and while he tossed 6 innings of 1-run ball, Toronto should be able to put together a better approach having seen him less than 2 weeks ago.

Philadelphia could also be in a solid position at the plate. Toronto’s Bowden Francis owns a less-than-stellar 6.12 ERA on the season, and opponents are hitting .293 with a .922 OPS against him. He’s allowed 10 earned runs over his last 2 outings, and he hasn’t been able to pitch deep into games on a consistent basis. The Phillies are locked in at the plate right now, having scored 15 runs over their last 2 games. All in all, this could be a high-scoring affair. Look to the over.

Blue Jays vs Phillies prediction: Over 8.5 (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable to -105.

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The Braves offense came to life last night, scoring 12 runs on 15 hits, and they’ll look to carry that momentum into today’s matchup against the Rockies. Over their last 13 games, Atlanta has seen a surge in offense from some key players – Ronald Acuna Jr. is batting .400 with four home runs, Matt Olson is hitting .283 with two home runs, and Michael Harris II is batting .275 with three home runs. With their core hitters starting to heat up, this talented Braves lineup is showing some signs of life, which is encouraging as they’ve struggled quite a bit during this first half of the season. 

Taking the mound for the Rockies will be Chase Dollander who’s 2-6 with a 6.85 ERA. Dollander hasn’t won a game since April 30th, and ironically enough, that win came against Atlanta, when he allowed just one earned run over 5.2 innings. The Braves will send Spencer Strider to the mound, who’s 0-5 with a 5.40 ERA. Over the Rockies last six days, they’re hitting .300 as a team and averaging 5 runs per game. However, their pitching continues to be a major liability, posting a team ERA of 9.34 in that same stretch. 

Knowing Strider is winless and has struggled this season, I can’t trust the Braves at this price, however, I do see a lot of value in the over. Both starting pitchers have struggled, and Colorado owns one of the worst bullpen ERAs in the league at 4.78.  With both teams showing signs of life at the plate and inconsistency on the mound, we could see plenty of runs scored early on, making the over my best bet of the day. 

Rockies vs Braves prediction: Over 8.5 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Joe Ryan and Hunter Brown are both pitchers I love to bet on, and I favor the under in today’s matchup between the Minnesota Twins and Houston Astros as these two right-handers face off. That being said, Ryan is not in his best form, however, allowing 3 or more runs in 3 of his last 4 starts. I do wish that this game was not in Houston for Ryan’s sake, as the Astros are far better offensively when at home, and Houston did take advantage of their matchup with Ryan once already this season. In that outing Ryan allowed 2 home runs and 4 earned runs in his 5 innings of work, and Houston should find enough run support for their starter today.

Brown pitched against Minnesota earlier this season, allowing 2 earned runs with 8 Ks in 6 strong innings of work. He is in good form with just 2 earned runs allowed in his last 17.1 innings of work, and despite his shaky command at times he is able to get out of jams with quality batted ball metrics and strikeout upside. Minnesota is decent offensively, but Brown is a Cy Young caliber starter and I’ll favor the Astros to win this low-scoring game.

Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros predictions: Astros ML (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that price.

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In this game, we will see the St. Louis Cardinals take on the Milwaukee Brewers for the third day in a row. The Brewers won the previous 2 games in a surprising fashion with the rookie Jacob Misiorowski pitching lights out in the first one followed by Freddy Peralta pitching great in the second game. Can the Brewers shut down the Cardinals offense again today? On the mound we will see, Andre Pallante of the Cardinals and Jose Quintana of the Brewers. Pallante holds a record of 4-3 but has given up 2+ runs in his last 10 starts. In his last 10 innings pitched, he has given up 14 hits and 9 runs. He is not bringing good form into this one, though we could say that about the entire Cardinals team as they have lost their last 6 games. Additionally, the Brewers bat .300 against Pallante meaning that this could be the game the Brewers need to get the bats going.

For the Brewers, they will start Quintana who has a 4-1 record with a 2.66 ERA on the year. These numbers signify his great form as he has given up less than 2 runs in 6 of his 8 starts this year. This is encouraging for the Brewers because the Cardinals have only accumulated 10 hits over the past 2 games. Additionally, Quintana has been great over his career against the Cardinals lineup holding them to a .117 batting average. The Brewers are also significantly better at home with a record of 22-14. Overall, we have 2 teams trending in opposite directions and the Brewers with the much stronger starter on the mound. I am taking the Brewers to get their 3rd win in a row against the Cardinals.

Cardinals vs. Brewers Prediction: Brewers ML (-125) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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After a tough series against the Red Sox, the Tampa Bay Rays bounced back in a big way against the Mets, scoring six runs in the sixth inning against one of the best bullpens in the league. In the Mets last 14 games, they’re first in the league in OPS (.840), runs scored (5.8 per game), and home runs (31). As for the Rays, in their last 13 games, they have a .741 OPS, 19 home runs, and averaging 5.3 runs per game. 

Drew Rasmussen will take the mound for the Rays, entering today’s matchup with a 5-4 record and a 2.22 ERA. Rasmussen has been terrific on the mound this season, and in his last five starts, he’s 4-0 with a 0.62 ERA and 24 strikeouts. For the Mets, they’ll counter with Tylor Megill who’s 5-4 with a 3.76 ERA. While Megill has been solid overall, he’s struggled in his last five starts, going 2-1 with a 4.88 ERA with 32 strikeouts. The New York Mets are the much better team, in my opinion, but this Rays team won’t just rollover and they’re tough to beat. Rasmussen has been one of the best pitchers in the league over the last couple of weeks, but the Mets have been one of the best hitting teams. For today’s matchup, I’m going to take a chance with the Rays as plus money with Rasmussen on the mound, and the Rays should have a few opportunities to score against Megill, making Tampa Bay my best bet of the day. 

Rays vs Mets prediction: Rays ML (+115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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In this game, we will see the Athletics face off against the Kansas City Royals for the second time this season. The Athletics won the first game, but their bullpen tried to give the game away in the 9th inning. This is a common theme for the Athletics as they now have the worst bullpen in baseball with an ERA of 6.11. Looking at today, on the mound we will see Jacob Lopez of the Athletics and Michael Lorenzen of the Royals. Lopez started the season as a relief pitcher but has transitioned to the starting lineup for his last 5 appearances. In those games, he has pitched 19.2 innings and given up 16 earned runs. These numbers are less than inspiring against a Royals team that is batting .261 over the past 6 games.

Looking at the Royals, they will put Lorenzen on the hill. Lorenzen is coming off a great start where he pitched 6 innings giving up just 1 hit and 2 runs against the Chicago White Sox. Prior to that start, he had given up 4+ runs in 3 out of 4 starts. The Royals will be hopeful that he can continue his impressive form from last game against an Athletics team that is batting .227 over the past 6 games. All the weight is not on Lorenzen in this one though. The Royals bullpen holds an impressive 3.45 ERA and were able to pitch well against the Athletics last night. Overall, I suspect that the Royals will make some heavy contact with Lopez, Lorenzen will continue pitching well, and the Athletics bullpen will give up some game-winning runs. I am rolling with the Royals to win this one.

Athletics vs. Royals Prediction: Royals ML (-155) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Red Sox have now won three in a row against the Yankees and will look to keep it going tonight as they look to secure an early series win against their division rivals. The only Yankees run last came from, you guessed it, Aaron Judge who belted his 26th home run in the top of the 9th to tie the game. Today, the Yankees will look to get revenge and hope to get their offense going as they’ve managed to score a total of two runs in their last two games. 

Taking the mound for the Yankees will be the left-hander Carlos Rodon who’s 8-4 with a 2.87 ERA. Rodon struggled in his last start against Boston, giving up five earned runs in five innings. For the Red Sox, Hunter Dobbins will take the mound who’s 3-1 with a 4.20 ERA. Dobbins managed to pick up the win in his last start against the Yankees, allowing just three earned runs in five innings. The over may look appealing given the fact that both starters struggled in their last start, but Rodon has been terrific for the Yankees all season. Rodon is 4-1 with an ERA of 2.61 and 52 strikeouts in six starts on the road this season, and I think he’ll have no issues rebounding from his previous start. Look for the Yankees to prove they’re the team to beat in the AL East this season as they win big in tonight’s matchup. 

Yankees vs Red Sox prediction: Yankees -1.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Arizona Diamondbacks look to make it 5 straight wins in Game 2 of their weekend series against the San Diego Padres with Zac Gallen (5.15 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) taking the mound for the hosts and Ryan Bergert (1.26 ERA, 0.98) getting the nod for San Diego. This will be Bergert’s third career MLB start after tossing 10.1 innings combined with only 2 earned runs in the first two go arounds. However, he’s drastically outperforming his 3.89 xERA and 5.55 xFIP. Furthermore, he’s got a low strikeout rate and a drastically low ground ball rate, and this Arizona offense has been one of the best in baseball as of late.

Over the last 30 days, the Diamondbacks rank 1st in MLB in wRC+, wOBA, and slugging. Arizona has scored the fourth-most runs in that time span while the San Diego offense has found itself in the mud as of late. In that same time span, the Padres rank dead last in wRC+, batting average and runs scored. With all things considered, I am fading the San Diego bats at all cost against the in-form Diamondbacks and will take Arizona to win.

Padres vs Diamondbacks prediction: Arizona ML (-165) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number or better.

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Both the Guardians and Mariners enter this contest struggling a bit. Cleveland is just 4-7 in June, while Seattle is 3-8 so far this month. Neither offense has been able to produce runs at a consistent rate so far in 2025, which has both teams hovering around the .500 mark. The pitching matchup in this one will pit Cleveland’s Tanner Bibee against Seattle’s George Kirby. After a rough April in which he posted a 5.27 ERA, Bibee posted a solid 3.30 ERA in May, and has looked good in his first 2 starts this month.

On the other side, Kirby is beginning to turn a corner as well. He will be making his 5th start of the season after beginning the season on the IL. He struggled in his first 2 outings, but has allowed just 4 earned runs over his last 2 starts and has 17 strikeouts with just 1 walk in that span. He is coming off his best start of the season, as he tossed 7 innings of 2-run ball and struck out 14 Angels on June 8. Cleveland’s offense ranks 24th in baseball with a .683 OPS, and they have scored the fewest runs in the American League so far in June. This has the makings of a low-scoring contest. Consider the under.

Guardians vs Mariners prediction: Under 7 (-115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The final game of the night takes us to LA, where the Giants and Dodgers face off again. The Giants took Friday’s game by a final of 5-2, and the Dodgers once again refused to score when Yamamoto is on the mound. They are the highest scoring team in baseball, but they consistently give Yamamoto the Skenes treatment. Meanwhile, the Giants continue to be one the real stories of the first half of the season, and yet we still never talk about them. They may well win again on Saturday, but I think the best play is the game total under 9.

Landen Roupp and Clayton Kershaw are the starters. Roupp has quietly put together an excellent campaign, pitching to a 3.29 ERA thus far. He hasn’t faced the Dodgers yet, sure, but he is more than capable of getting through the lineup a couple times before handing it off to the #1 bullpen in baseball. Kershaw is a bit of a wildcard, but the cagey veteran keeps finding ways to get guys out, and the SF offense doesn’t typically blow the doors off anybody anyway. Notably, the Dodgers did not use any of their high leverage arms on Friday, so we should see a few of those tonight. This feels like a low-scoring duel to me. Take the under.

Giants vs Dodgers Prediction: Under 9 (-105) available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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