MLB Picks

I expect the Toronto Blue Jays to win by multiple runs over the Tampa Bay Rays when the teams face off Thursday afternoon. Toronto is set to start veteran right-hander Chris Bassitt in this game, as he looks to make his 32nd appearance of the season. Bassitt has been a model of consistency and health for Toronto, and has served a crucial role on this first-place team. Across his 166 innings of work, his 3.90 ERA has been a steady presence, and he is my preferred starting pitcher in this matchup.

Shane Baz is certainly a talented starting pitcher and someone I am not opposed to backing when he is on the road. He has been a different pitcher in his new home park, however, and I am looking to take advantage of those splits today by backing the Blue Jay offense. Baz has a 6.28 ERA in his 77.1 innings at home this season, as the Rays are playing their home games in a minor league park. Toronto bats should benefit from their park upgrade, and I expect them to roll in this spot.

Blue Jays vs Rays prediction: Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (+135) available at time of publishing. Playable at +130 odds.

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Thursday’s matchup between the Kansas City Royals and Seattle Mariners should be an interesting game from both a betting and viewership perspective. The Mariners are a half-game back of the Astros for first place in the AL West, and the Royals are looking to play spoiler with their .500 record. Seattle has had a successful season already by their standards, but mid-season acquisitions of power bats indicate they are geared up for a postseason run. Luis Castillo is set to start this game for the Mariners, and the veteran right-hander enters this matchup with a 3.76 ERA. His last two starts were very strong following three shakier starts, but despite his rebound performances, I still favor the Royals starter in this spot.

Stephen Kolek was acquired by the Royals from the Padres at the trade deadline and the right-hander has made three starts with his new team since the trade. Those outings have resulted in 19.2 innings of 4-run ball with just 2 walks issued in that span. While his career-long track record is not as strong as Castillo’s, his current form is something that is exciting Royals fans. At current pricing I side with Kansas City in their home park.

Royals vs Mariners prediction: Kansas City Royals ML (+100) available at time of publishing. Playable at that price.

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The Chicago Cubs can finally celebrate after clinching their first postseason berth since 2020 with a 8-4 win over the Pirates last night. But with the celebration behind them, the Cubs still have a lot of work to do to prepare for October. Tonight, the Cubs will open a four-game series against the Cincinnati Reds, who sit just two games out of the NL Wild Card. While Chicago has already secured its spot, nothing would be sweeter than spoiling a division rival’s push for the final NL Wild Card spot. 

Colin Rea will take the mound for the Cubs, entering with a 10-6 record and a 4.23 ERA. For the Reds, Hunter Greene will get the start, entering with a 6-4 record and a 3.01 ERA. Rea has struggled against the Reds this season, going 0-2 with a 10.13 ERA in two starts. Greene wasn’t much better when he last faced the Cubs, throwing only four innings and allowing 2 earned runs on 3 hits back on May 23. At the end of the day, the Reds are hungry to make the postseason and I can’t trust Rea enough in tonight’s matchup given his struggles against Cincinnati all season. Look for the Reds to steal game one in this series, making them my best bet of the day. 

Cubs vs Reds prediction: Cincinnati Reds ML (-125) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Angels are in the middle of a 10-game road trip, and it is not going well so far. Los Angeles has dropped the first six games of the trip, which includes the first two games in this series against the Milwaukee by a combined score of 18-4. Things won’t get any easier for the Angles in the series finale as they are set to go up against Milwaukee starting pitcher Quinn Priester. The Brewers tend to win games when he pitches. Milwaukee has reeled off wins in 18 straight games started by the 25-year-old right-hander. He’s consistently put his team in a position to win, which has his record sitting at 13-2 on the season.

Los Angeles started Yusei Kikuchi owns a less-than-ideal 8.56 ERA through 3 starts in September. He’s also really struggled on the road this season. Kikuchi’s ERA jumps from a solid 3.00 at home to 5.16 on the road. In addition, his BAA goes from .252 at home to .282 when pitching away from Los Angeles. The Brewers are closing out the regulars season as one of the top teams in baseball, while the Angels are just trying to get through the season. Fade Los Angeles and back Milwaukee at home in this one.

Angels vs Brewers prediction: Milwaukee Brewers ML (-190) available at time of publishing. Playable to -195.

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There is immense pressure on the New York Mets to avoid falling flat on their face, yet the team continues to do so in front of the baseball world. The Mets were in prime position for the playoffs throughout the summer, but a late-season collapse has left the door open for someone to pass them for the final wild card spot. With the season winding down, opposing teams may run out of time to pass them, but currently Arizona, Cincinnati, and San Francisco still have a chance. Today, the Mets face the San Diego Padres with Jonah Tong taking the ball to start the game. Tong flashed his upside in his MLB debut, but has since registered two very shaky outings. Look for San Diego to produce offensively in this spot.

Randy Vasquez is not my favorite Padre pitcher to bet on, but the right-hander has outperformed expectations in 2025. After 6 scoreless innings in his last outing, his season-long ERA has fallen to 3.72 — which is a very solid mark for a tail-end rotation starter. Vasquez is prone to poor starts from time to time, but with the Mets lineup in their slump and New York in poor form overall, I side with the Padres as an underdog.

Padres vs Mets prediction: San Diego Padres ML (+115) available at time of publishing. Playable at that price.

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The Miami Marlins and the Colorado Rockies wrap up a three-game series at Coors Field in Denver on Thursday night. Miami was swept by the Rockies back in June, but the Marlins have returned the favor this week. Miami won 6-5 in the series opener Tuesday, while posting an 8-4 win on Wednesday. The over has cashed in each of the games in this series, while going 4-1 in the past five games, and 9-3-1 in the previous 13 contests. RHP Sandy Alcantara is 9-12 with a 5.53 ERA and 1.29 WHIP across 161 IP in 29 starts, and he is awful on the road. Alcantara has managed a 3-6 record, 7.24 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 59 2/3 IP innings across 12 road starts.

For the home side, RHP Tanner Gordon takes the ball, and he looks to get above .500. He is 6-6 with a 6.14 ERA and 1.50 WHIP across 66 IP in 13 starts. He has shown slight improvement lately, posting a 4-2 record, 5.79 ERA and 1.29 WHIP across 37 1/3 IP in his past seven starts. Surprisingly, his home ERA is 2 full runs better than on the road, although at 5.40 ERA in 41 2/3 IP across eight starts at Coors Field, he is still very giving. Let’s keep pounding the over in this series.

Marlins vs Rockies prediction: Over 10.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 11 (-120).

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With just a two-game lead in the AL Wild Card standings, the New York Yankees will open a four-game series against the Baltimore Orioles. This is a pivotal series for the Yankees, and it’s a series they can’t afford to lose. The Orioles have managed to win six of their last ten games, but offensively, they’ve struggled averaging just 3.2 runs per game in that span. 

New York will send Max Fried to the mound, entering with a 17-5 record and a 3.03 ERA. The left-hander has won four in a row and holds a 2.39 ERA in that span. For the Orioles, Cade Povich will get the start, entering with a 3-7 record and a 5.05 ERA. The Yankees offense has been doing its part, averaging 4.9 runs per game, but their pitching staff has struggled with a 5.93 ERA in that span. Even so, Fried has clearly found his groove, and Povich has struggled all season. New York has been the better team all season and they should be able to take care of business against their division rival. 

Yankees vs Orioles prediction: New York Yankees -1.5 (-125) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The San Francisco Giants face the Los Angeles Dodgers on Thursday. This looks like a fantastic pitching matchup between Logan Webb of the Giants and Yoshinobu Yamamoto of the Dodgers. Webb has been great this year to the tune of a 3.34 ERA and a 14-10 record. He struggled in his last start, against the Dodgers, in which he gave up 10 hits and 6 runs in just 4.0 innings. While this may seem like a one-off for Webb, he has struggled against the Dodgers this season. He has pitched 16.1 innings against them, giving up 18 hits and 14 earned runs. These numbers get even more intimidating when we consider that the Dodgers are batting .300 over the last 6 games while scoring 40 total runs. I have a feeling it could be a short day for Webb.

On the Dodgers’ side, Yamamoto Yamamoto is coming into this one after 3 incredible starts in which he has logged 22.2 innings and given up just 6 hits and 3 earned runs. Yamamoto also has some experience against the Giants, as he has pitched 18.2 innings giving up 10 hits and 6 earned runs. Moreover, San Francisco is batting .160 over the past 6 games. Yamamoto has also pitched 7+ innings in 4 of his last 5 starts. That is great news because the Giants can probably keep their bullpen off the mound. While normally we would give the bullpen edge to the Giants, their relievers have given up 21 runs over the past 5 games. All in all, we have a clear edge in hitting and Yamamoto in great form. I am taking the Dodgers to get the win at home.

Giants vs Dodgers prediction: Los Angeles ML (-160) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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