NBA Picks

After winning their opening game of the season, the Toronto Raptors have lost four straight games. They will be looking to end that streak Friday when they travel to Cleveland to take on the Cavaliers. The Raptors last game defeat was 139-121 on their home court at the hands of the Houston Rockets. Scottie Barnes scored 31 points and Brandon Ingram added 29, but it was not enough to take down Kevin Durant and the Rockets. The Cavaliers are also coming off a loss. They dropped a game 125-105 on the road against the Boston Celtics. The Cavaliers only shot 40% from the field in the loss, and they had no players scoring over 20 points. Last year’s number one seed in the Eastern Conference has played below their standard offensively to start this season with players such as Darius Garland and Max Strus out with injuries. 

The Cavaliers have a handful of injury concerns to start the season. On top of Garland and Strus, both Donovan Mitchell and Jarrett Allen are questionable for Friday’s game. Mitchell played through hamstring soreness on Wednesday, and Allen suffered a finger injury on his non shooting hand. The injury status of Allen will be key for how to play this game. With Jakob Poetl out with an injury again this Friday, the Raptors are left without a true center on their roster. Their biggest forwards include 6’ 9” Sandro Mamukelashvili and 6′ 7” Collin Murray-Boyles. This played a major factor against the Rockets. The Raptors lost the rebounding battle 53 to 22. It was nearly 50/50 who got the rebound when the Rockets were on offense. The Raptors finished the game with only 18 defensive rebounds while the Rockets had 17 offensive rebounds. The Cavaliers have one of the most talented front courts in the NBA with Allen and Evan Mobley and they should be able to replicate a dominant game on the glass. 

Cavaliers -7.5 is available at the time of publishing. Playable at that number.

The Orlando Magic have embraced a faster-paced, more dynamic style of play this season, ranking among the top 10 in pace at just over 103 possessions per game. Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner continue to anchor a young, athletic core that thrives in transition and has shown flashes of offensive growth. However, the shift toward tempo has come at a cost; a once elite Orlando defense has slipped into the bottom 10, allowing opponents to find easy looks and score in bunches. The Magic are scoring well, though giving up plenty on the other end – making their games more volatile and high-scoring than in recent years.

Charlotte mirrors that same formula. The Hornets are also top-10 in pace, running at about 105 possessions per game with LaMelo Ball pushing the tempo and Brandon Miller showing encouraging growth as a scorer. Yet, like Orlando, Charlotte’s defense remains a major issue—ranking near the bottom of the league in both opponent field goal percentage and defensive rating. The Hornets rely heavily on transition opportunities and perimeter shooting to stay in games, often engaging in back-and-forth shootouts. With both teams preferring speed over structure and neither capable of consistently getting stops, this matchup has all the ingredients for fireworks. Expect constant fast breaks, little resistance at the rim, and a score that pushes well past the total.

Magic vs Hornets prediction: Over 240.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 242.5

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Both the Golden State Warriors (4-1) and Milwaukee Bucks (3-1) are off to stellar starts heading into a showdown on Wednesday night in Milwaukee. I can’t trust the Bucks — at least not against a very good opponent — when they are such a one-man team at the moment. As such, my Warriors vs Bucks pick is on the visitors to win and cover. Giannis Antetokounmpo has led his squad in points and rebounds in all 4 games and in assists in 3 of the first 4 games. Newcomer Myles Turner is a nice all-around player, but he has provided little offense so far this season. Also, Kyle Kuzma has done nothing on that end of the floor.

The Warriors may be one of the oldest teams in the NBA, but early returns indicate that they may have at least one more run left in them. Their only loss through 5 outings has been the second leg of a back-to-back situation on the road. Other than that, they have been outstanding. Three different guys have led the team in points and 5 are averaging in double-figures. Stephen Curry is getting a ton of help, specifically from Jimmy Butler and Jonathan Kuminga. Moses Moody is doubtful for Thursday, but Golden State’s depth is such that Moody’s absence should not matter. He already missed Tuesday’s contest against the Clippers and all the Dubs did was dominate by 19 points.

Warriors vs Bucks prediction: Golden State -1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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This is one of those plays where the handicap is less about breaking down matchups and more about understanding market psychology. Oklahoma City is the reigning NBA champion, fresh off a franchise-record season in wins, and they’ve stormed out of the gate 5-0 again. The Thunder look every bit as potent as they did last year — deep, athletic, balanced, and relentless. The public loves them. The narrative loves them. And the market is making you pay a tax for them.

Meanwhile, Washington sits at the other end of the spectrum. The Wizards have been a punchline for the better part of the last few seasons, and while they are undeniably improved, reputations linger. The betting public sees “Wizards” and reflexively fades. Combine that with Washington blowing a double-digit fourth-quarter lead against Philadelphia on Tuesday — and narrowly missing a cover in the process — and the emotion kicks in. Nobody wants them. The “bad beat effect” is real, and bettors run from teams perceived to burn tickets.

This is not about loving the Wizards — it’s about buying the number. Paying for Oklahoma City here isn’t betting — it’s chasing. This is an overlay, and we’ll gladly step into the discomfort and grab the inflated points.

Wizards vs. Thunder prediction: Washington Wizards +15.5 (-110), available at number posted at time of writing. Playable to +15.

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After they opened the season with a narrow loss to Orlando, the Heat have put together a 3-game win streak with impressive wins over Memphis, New York and Charlotte. That streak will be put to the test by the Spurs, who are yet to lose a game this season. Miami has had a solid record in head-to-head meetings, beating the Spurs in 5 straight away games. However, this was before Wembanyama became the player he is today. I’m curious to see how Bam Adebayo handles the Spurs big man down low, it could be a struggle dealing with Wemby’s length. While Miami has quite a few players out injured, they rely a lot on Bam for the offense to click.

San Antonio and its superstar Victor Wembanyama have been the talk of the league so far in the early going this season. At 4-0, they are 1 of 4 remaining unbeaten teams in the league, joining the Bulls, 76ers and Thunder. Not to downplay what the Spurs have achieved so far, but it is a bit obvious that they didn’t have the strongest of schedules. I’d argue Thursday’s game against Miami will be their toughest test so far, and the oddsmakers have them as 5.5 favorites.

Despite the success the Spurs have had, I am still hesitant to pull the trigger on this team.  That 5.5 point line looks a tad too big. Instead, I really like the point total market here. San Antonio ranks 1st in points per game allowed and they also hold opponents to just 41.6% shooting from the field. The Heat play at the fastest pace right now, but I don’t think they’ll be able to get to their averages on offense against the best defensive team in the NBA. Back the under here.

Heat vs Spurs Predictions: Under 232.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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