NBA Picks

Celtics vs 76ers prediction: Philadelphia 76ers +7 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to the number.

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The Houston Rockets find themselves in a must-win scenario when they head back to Houston Friday night to take on the Los Angeles Lakers in Game 3 of their opening-round series. The Lakers took the first 2 games despite Luka Doncic and Austin Reeves sitting out with injuries. With a 41-year-old LeBron James taking over as their #1 scoring option, the Lakers have turned to their defense to win the opening games. In fact, the Lakers have held the Rockets under 100 points and under 40% shooting in each of the opening contests.

On offense, James has been great, but the real scoring threat that the Rockets haven’t been able to slow down is Luke Kennard, who has averaged 25 points on 65% shooting in the 2 games played in Los Angeles. The Lakers only hope his play will continue on the road.

To pick up the win Friday night, the Rockets will need their stars to shine much brighter than they did in Los Angeles. Alperen Sengun struggled in the opening games, averaging 19.5 points on only 38.5% shooting. Head coach Ime Udoka hoped Sengun would have a big advantage down low matching up against Deandre Ayton and Jaxson Hayes, but so far that has not been the case. Meanwhile, Kevin Durant returned to the floor for Game 2 and played 41 minutes. He shot an efficient 58% but only took 12 shots in the game. Durant is listed as questionable for Game 3 with an ankle injury, but I expect he plays this vital game. With no true point guard, this offense runs through Durant, and the Rockets will need Durant to be more aggressive offensively in Game 3 if they want a chance to advance.

I think the Rockets can win Game 3, but they have too many question marks to back them as double-digit favorites. Durant’s injury status and Sengun’s struggles are now just stacked on top of the team’s lack of a starting point guard and depth. The Lakers have all the momentum heading to Houston, and they have seen a lot of key players gain valuable playoff confidence.  They know they have the Rockets reeling right now, and I expect them to do enough to at least keep this game closer than oddsmakers project.

Lakers vs Rockets prediction: Los Angeles Lakers +10 is available at the time of publishing. Playable to +9.

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After sustaining a hard fall in the 2nd quarter of Game 2, Victor Wembanyama is now in the concussion protocol and is likely to miss Friday’s Game 3 in Portland. That is undoubtedly a big blow for San Antonio, as they’ll have to come up with a completely different game plan without their best player. In 18 games without Wemby this year, the Spurs are 12-6 SU, but there was a noticeable drop-off in their defensive efficiency without him. The oddsmakers are well aware of that, too. Despite the first 2 games seeing just 209 points each, the projected total for Friday’s game is sitting at a relatively high 220.5 points.

Portland did exactly what they were supposed to do, getting the split in San Antonio, and now we have ourselves a series. They finally got a big game out of Scoot Henderson, who went off for 31 points, plus Jrue Holiday once again proved his value as the veteran leader of the team with 16 and 9 assists. You just know the crowd at Moda Center will be ecstatic as their team plays there for the first time this postseason, and the Trail Blazers have been very reliable in home games — winning 7 of the last 8.

Losing the best player to an injury can often rally the troops and bring the best out of a team. San Antonio actually led by as many as 14 points with 8 minutes remaining in the 4th before their collapse. Now, they’ve had 2 full days to come up with a gameplan for Game 3 that won’t involve their big man; I think that’s quite enough for a team that went 62-20 SU this season. I’ll back San Antonio even if they’re shorthanded.

Spurs vs Trail Blazers predictions: San Antonio Spurs -2 is available at time of publishing. Playable to that number.

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Aaron Gordon was a late scratch for the Nuggets right before Game 3 and it completely disrupted their gameplan, resulting in a 113-96 defeat. It was a wire-to-wire defeat, something we rarely see happen to Nikola Jokic and his team. Speaking of the 3-time MVP, he had a game to forget going just 7-for-26 from the field and dishing out just 3 assists. There is very little time to feel sorry for themselves, the Nuggets have to re-group quickly if they want to avoid going down 3-1 in this series. Gordon’s calf injury isn’t severe so he should be able to return for Saturday’s game, I don’t believe Denver stands a chance without him in this game.

Ayo Dosunmu and Jaden McDaniels stole the show for Minnesota in Game 2, combining for 45 points on 19-for-27 from the field. Rudy Gobert also had a dominant showing on defense, grabbing 12 boards and blocking 3 shots while also slowing down the Joker. Anthony Edwards appeared to have injured his knee in the 4th quarter and left the game, his status is up in the air for Game 4. When Ant Man doesn’t play Minnesota’s offensive rating drops by 2.6 points per 100 possessions, however their defense improves by 5.5 points. I’d take those numbers with a grain of salt, after all these are the Playoffs and you really want to have your best players at your disposal to give yourself the best chance of winning.

Denver cannot afford to lose here, going down 3-1 would be a disaster as only a handful of teams in NBA history have come back from that deficit. Aaron Gordon should return, this is exactly the situation Denver was in last season vs the Clippers Round 1 after 3 games. They responded with a massive win in Game 4, I expect them to play a methodical game and slow things down substantially on Saturday. After all this is a championship contender and moments like these are what define a champion. Back Denver to cover.

Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves Predictions: Nuggets -1.5 is available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.