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Point Spread PickBest Bet

SA Spurs -4.5(-110)

Reasoning

It is finally here. Game 1 of the 2026 NBA Finals. In a rematch of the 1999 Finals, the New York Knicks will take on the San Antonio Spurs. To get to this point, the Spurs had to go through the best in the Western Conference, including seven games against the defending champion, Oklahoma City Thunder. After early struggles against Atlanta, the Knicks flew through the Eastern Conference winning an impressive 11 games in a row to achieve their first Finals appearance in over a quarter of a century. Which of these two teams will gain the first advantage of this intriguing matchup?

A general narrative heading into the first game is that the Spurs will be playing on tired legs after enduring a physical seven game series while the Knicks have been resting and preparing for over a week after sweeping the Cavaliers. The storyline should sound familiar for San Antonio because we heard it at the beginning of the Thunder series as well. The Spurs traveled to Oklahoma City for game 1 after a physical series against the Timberwolves. The young Spurs were able to lean on their youth against the Thunder, who were well rested after they had just swept the Suns, and they got arguably Victor Wembanyama’s best game of his young NBA life. The Spurs won in overtime 122-115 behind 41 points and 24 rebounds from Wembanyama. I don’t believe there was any viewer who would have claimed the Spurs looked tired in that game. Wembanyama has shown at the age of 22, he is already in the discussion for best basketball player on the planet, and I’m much more concerned with how the Knicks will plan around him.

Jalen Brunson has been stellar, averaging 26.9 points per game this postseason on 48% shooting, but he has not yet had to deal with a defender like Wembanyama, a defender who takes up so much space inside the arc. Brunson has done a great job getting to his spots and making tough contested jumpers when his team has needed it, but I’m not yet sure how he will be able to get his shot off consistently with Wembanyama roaming around in help defense. I hope head coach Mike Woodson can create a solid gameplan and the Knicks can continue their hot streak. It would make for a great series, but I need to see it first before I can back them. With the Spurs at home, I know what I am going to get; a 7’4″ deterrent that will make life difficult on the Knicks.

Knicks vs Spurs Game 1 prediction: Spurs -4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at -6.5.

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Ben Dezell

Player Points+Rebounds Pick

L. Kornet (SA) - Over 4.5 P+R(-130)

Reasoning

Luke Kornet had a rough go in the series versus the Oklahoma City Thunder. In games 1-5 combined, he was a -52 in 54 minutes. The Thunder were feasting when Victor Wembanyama wasn’t on the floor. But in Game 7, that all changed. Kornet came up with a massive chase-down block, leading to a Stephon Castle bucket and giving the Spurs the needed cushion as the Thunder made a run late in the 4th quarter.

A new series means rotations and matchups will be totally different. Kornet should have a slightly bigger role with a better matchup against the Knicks. After winning a championship in 2024 with the Celtics and spending 4 seasons in Boston, Kornet was bought in from free agency to be one of the best backup big men in the league. He’s a veteran presence that the Spurs can trust with Wembanyama off the floor for the 8-12 minutes. Back him and his points+rebounds prop on Bet365 and FanDuel, which are priced at -130 and -132 – beating the prices on Caesars and DraftKings.

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Player Assists Pick

K.A. Towns (NY) - Under 4.5 assists(-119)

Reasoning

Karl-Anthony Towns has been the main reason for the Knicks’ postseason success. His usage and play-making ability have lifted the Knicks into one of the best offenses in the playoffs this century. Their offensive rating is a historic 123, while they’re shooting over 50% from the field and 40% from 3-point range. But I’m fading his assists in Game 1, as I anticipate him being used more as a shooter and stretching the floor, with Wembanyama potentially patrolling the paint, if he lines up with Josh Hart.

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Justin Martin (JutPicks)

Same Game Parlay

Player Threes Made

J. Brunson (NY) - 2+ threes

Player to Record a Double-Double

K.A. Towns (NY) to record a Double-Double

Player Points

D. Harper (SA) - 10+ pts

Player Assists

D. Fox (SA) - 6+ assists

Reasoning

Knicks vs Spurs parlay pick: Jalen Brunson 2+ made threes (-230)

Unlike in previous seasons where he would often run out of gas before even getting to the Conference Finals, this time around Jalen Brunson has gotten a lot more help from his teammates. Unlike Victor Wembanyama on the other side, Brunson has played 3 less full games and it shows. His scoring average and field goal efficiency are both up compared to the regular season, while his three-point shot has also been going in at a relatively efficient clip. He has a knack of doing well from the perimeter against the Spurs, the last 7 meetings have seen him clear this line 5 times.

During the regular season, Brunson shot the deep ball at a 47.4% clip against the Spurs, and he carried the offense in the NBA Cup Final win as well. I’m going with a slightly conservative approach for him in Game 1, making a pair of threes shouldn’t be too big of an ask. He’s done it 58 times in 89 games so far this season (65%), on the road that percentage goes up to 67% (30/45 games).

Knicks vs Spurs parlay pick: Karl-Anthony Towns to record a Double-Double (-240)

This is the moment of truth for Karl-Anthony Towns. The moment he arrived to New York City big things were expected from him and he has been under the spotlight ever since. In his first game as a Knick he wore a throwback shirt showing the Spurs vs Knicks NBA Finals match-up from 1999, making this the an ideal full circle moment for the big fella. However, he will have to adapt his game drastically if he wants his team to succeed in this series.

Going up against Victor Wembanyama will be a tall task, especially with Mitchell Robinson dealing with a broken pinky finger on his right hand. That means more minutes for Towns at the center position as the Knicks aren’t exactly equipped with tall centers that can go toe to toe with the alien down low. KAT is averaging 10.6 rebounds per game this postseason, that might look like it’s down compared to the regular season, but only because the Knicks were so good in the last two series that Towns didn’t even have to play his normal minutes. Look for him to be very active in Game 1 and dominante on the glass.

Knicks vs Spurs SGP pick: Dylan Harper 10+ points (-142)

Harper has risen to the occasion this postseason averaging 13.1 points per game which is an increase of 1.3 ppg compared to his season average. On top of that his efficiency also went up by 2% both from the field (52.5%) and from three (36.4%). He should feel right at home in this series, especially in games played at Madison Square Garden, given that he grew up in the tri-state area. I have Harper scoring at least 10 points in the opener as he has done so in 12 of his 18 games so far this postseason. For the season, the over on this bet has cashed 57 times in 88 games — good for a success rate of 65%. I quite like those odds, so let’s include him in our parlay for Game 1.

Knicks vs Spurs SGP pick: De’Aaron Fox 6+ assists (-130)

Playing on a bummed ankle did slow him down a bit, but De’Aaron Fox was still a major contributor in the series win over Oklahoma City, especially in Game 7 where he went off for 15 points and also dished out 5 assists. He finished the series averaging 6.2 dimes per game, which is in line with his postseason average of 5.9 per game. The Knicks had major problems guarding him in the two regular season meetings, his combination of speed and quickness was too much to handle for the likes of Brunson and others trying to contain him.

Fox averaged 6.5 assists in the regular season meetings, while he dished out 9 of them in the NBA Cup matchup, as the Spurs offense went through mostly him and Stephon Castle. Although he has not played on the biggest stage yet, Fox is one of the more experienced players on this Spurs roster and I’m convinced that’ll have a massive impact on the rest of his teammates as they try to feed off his playmaking.

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