NBA Picks

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Time is slowly running out for the Nuggets, who are desperately trying to solidify their starting unit in these remaining 20 or so games of the regular season. Aaron Gordon coming back means that they are back to full strength — that is if Jamal Murray is able to play following his ankle twist in the loss to the Knicks. The Nuggets got blown out by 39 points, but we can give them some leeway considering it was the second night of a back-to-back scenario. Monday’s meetings with the Thunder will be their third this season. The Nuggets are yet to against SGA and company, with the latest meeting ending in a 6-point road defeat in overtime.

The defending champs have similar issues, but — unlike the Nuggets — it hasn’t affected their ability to win games at all. They enter Monday’s affair on a 5-game winning streak, and the defense has really excelled in their last 4 games — holding opponents to just 97,100, 108 and 87 points. However, I still advise caution given that Isaiah Hartenstein and Jalen Williams have already been ruled out, while Alex Caruso and Chet Holmgren are both questionable. From a bettors’ perspective, backing the Thunder hasn’t been all that joyful. They have failed to cover the spread in 5 straight games overall, while at home they are just 15-18 ATS in 33 games so far.

There’s pressure on both teams given their situations in the standings, but I would argue there’s slightly more on the Nuggets — who just fell to sixth after the Lakers won on Sunday. Gordon coming back is a plus, and the team will only get better once he returns to his pre-injury form. I just feel like these 2 teams are too evenly matched for one side to win 3 straight meetings between them. Give me a Nuggets upset.

Nuggets vs Thunder prediction: Denver ML (+230) available at time of publishing. Playable at that price.

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The Brooklyn Nets will host the Memphis Grizzlies tonight in a game that will see both sides without key scorers. Brooklyn will mainly be without the services of Michael Porter Jr. The forward is averaging 25.4 points per game, so he will be a big miss for the squad. This season the Nets are 28th in true shooting percentage, so being without the one player who can create his own looks it should really impact efficiency tonight. They are also 22nd in pace over the last 10 games, which should help limit scoring opportunities for both sides in this one.

The Grizzlies’ injury list is extensive. Not only are starters like Ja Morant and Zach Edey out, but so are key scoring reserves. Santi Aldama has been ruled out, while Ty Jerome, Cedric Coward and Scottie Pippen Jr. are all doubtful. It will leave the likes of GG Jackson and Cam Spencer to carry the offense. With increased roles and more defensive attention, the Grizzlies’ offense could stall with them at the helm. It’s also worth noting that the home side is also 27th in 3-point percentage over the last 10 games. With everything considered, do not be surprised to see one of these teams struggle to break the 100-point mark. That makes the under the play to make in this one.

Grizzlies vs Nets prediction: Under 222.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 221.5.

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New York’s defeat against the Lakers on Sunday raised a lot of questions, as they turned the ball over 18 times and also shot just 24% from downtown against at best a mediocre defense. Mikal Bridges had a scoreless effort in 27 minutes, but of course we cannot blame just one particular player on that loss. I think it actually benefits the Knicks that they have to play on back-to-back days here, as they can quickly take their minds off that defeat. The challenge in front of them is also a tough one; they’ve beaten the Clippers only twice in 7 meetings while also covering just twice in those 7 games. At the Intuit Dome, the Knicks are only 2-11 SU in 13 visits.

Kawhi Leonard and his teammates had an extra day of rest compared to the Knicks, so they will be the ones dictating the tempo. A narrow win over the Grizzlies in their last game made them forget about the meltdown they had against San Antonio earlier in the week — letting a 25-point lead slip away. Right now the Clippers are sitting at 31-32 SU for this season, which is truly remarkable given their rough start. This is an opportunity for them to get back to the .500 mark for the first time since early November. Darius Garland is finally back from his toe injury, and he had his best game as a Clipper with 20 points and 6 assists on Saturday against Memphis.

New York has been able to shut down opponents’ 3-point shooting lately, but in a game against the Clippers that won’t matter too much. LA knows how to win games without a consistent 3-point shot; we just saw them beat the Grizzlies with only 4 shots made from deep. They have the superior head-to-head record and are in slightly better shape mentally following that Knicks’ loss against the Lakers yesterday. I’ll side with the Clippers.

Knicks vs Clippers prediction: Los Angeles +2 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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This total asks both teams to cooperate offensively, and that is where the Under starts to make sense. Philadelphia is playing without Tyrese Maxey for at least 2 games due to a finger injury, which removes a huge chunk of on-ball creation and scoring from the Sixers’ attack. Maxey is averaging 29.0 points and 6.7 assists, so this is not a small subtraction that can be waved away with generic “next man up” language.

The spread also matters. Cleveland is laying 11.5, and games with a favorite of that size often create awkward total environments. If the Cavaliers control the game as expected, they do not need to push for pace; they just need to avoid variance and bank possessions. That kind of script tends to shorten the game naturally. Philadelphia’s path to hanging around is also slower, not faster. Without Maxey, the Sixers are less equipped to win an up-and-down game — so their best chance is to make this more methodical and possession-heavy. If Cleveland gets ahead, the Cavs can win comfortably without turning it into a track meet. That combination makes the Over at this price feel a little too ambitious for the actual game script.

76ers vs Cavaliers prediction: Under 227 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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