NBA Picks

In my best bets analysis, I asked if the Hornets are for real. That question gets answered tonight. Over the last 9 games, few teams in the league have played better basketball than the Hornets; they have won all of those games. The recent surge isn’t built on unsustainable shot-making; it’s coming from structure. The Hornets have settled into a defensive identity, they are taking smarter offensive looks and they have shown the ability to control tempo whether the game speeds up or slows down.

Now comes the measuring stick. Detroit enters with the best record in the Eastern Conference at 38-13, and on the surface it feels easy to lay a short number with the conference leader against a team still sitting below .500. But the records don’t fully reflect the current form on the floor. If Charlotte was simply riding a temporary heater, this number would be wider. Instead, the market is signaling respect for how competitive the Hornets have been. This is a tone-setting opportunity with the all-star break approaching. Charlotte has momentum, confidence and a home environment that should reflect the stakes. Teams in this position often treat games like this as playoff auditions, and the energy level typically follows. If the recent defensive commitment and shot discipline hold, Charlotte makes a statement. The Hive should be buzzing tonight.

Pistons vs Hornets prediction: Charlotte ML (+130) available at time of publishing. Playable at that price.

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The Chicago Bulls have lost their last three road games, and they have lost seven of their last eight games overall. Despite the recent losing streak, Chicago will head into Brooklyn Monday night as favorites against the Nets. The Nets currently hold the third worst record in the Eastern Conference at 14-37, and they are the coldest team in the East with only two wins in their last ten games. The Brooklyn Nets have won two of the three games played against Chicago this season. Since the last time these two teams played, Chicago has completely revamped their roster. Ayo Dosunmu, Kevin Huerter, Coby White, and Nikola Vucevic were all dealt out of Chicago, and they brought in Collin Sexton, Jaden Ivey, Anfernee Simons, Rob Dillingham, Leonard Miller, and Nick Richards. A common complaint about the new rendition of the Bulls lineup is how many guards they have, and their lack of bigs. This restructure has not yet resulted in a win, and has resulted in poor defense. In their last four losses, the Bulls have allowed their opponents to shoot 53% from the field and 47% from three point range. Due to their lack of size, the Bulls have been unable to stop opponents in the paint. In their last loss against Denver, Chicago surrendered 60 points in the paint. The Nets are coming off a convincing 127-113 victory over the Wizards in their last game, and they will have the chance to win the season series against the Bulls tonight.

Bulls vs Nets prediction: Brooklyn +4 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The under fits the most likely script, especially with this game being played in Orlando. The Magic’s identity is built around defensive control and tempo management, and that approach tends to become even more pronounced on their home floor. When Orlando dictates the environment, games shift away from flow and into half-court possessions, longer trips and tougher scoring windows.

The spread is also a key indicator here. With Orlando laying around nine points, this isn’t projected as a back-and-forth track meet. When the Magic are significant favorites, it’s typically because their defense is expected to commute and their half-court style is positioned to grind opponents down. That means extended possessions, contested shot quality and fewer easy scoring opportunities at the rim or in transition. Milwaukee has the offensive talent to produce, but the path becomes narrower in this type of environment. If the Magic establish control early and play from ahead, the pace naturally slows even further. Orlando is comfortable shortening games with clock management and defensive discipline, turning each possession into a time-consuming battle. That’s where totals struggle. When the clock becomes a factor and transition chances disappear, efficiency alone has to carry the scoring load. This projects as a controlled, physical game in which pace works against the over from start to finish.

Bucks vs Magic prediction: Under 218.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 218.

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Normally, a total sitting in this range would create reluctance on the over. But this is one of those rare matchups in which the number is elevated for a reason. There’s enough offense to go around on both sides, and more importantly the game environment points toward volume rather than efficiency being the driving force. Miami plays with tempo at home, and Utah is exactly the type of opponent that won’t slow the Heat down. The Jazz don’t dictate pace; they roll with it. That dynamic can quickly turn this game into a track meet where early-clock offense, quick-trigger threes and short defensive trips move the needle.

Utah has documented defensive issues. The Jazz concede clean looks come from multiple areas of the floor, and Miami has the personnel to exploit that wrinkle. But the flip side matters just as much: when the Heat play fast, their own defense loosens — creating scoring opportunities the other way for a team in Utah that loves to score. This shapes up as a fast, open, and to-and-fro contest. Games with that profile don’t creep toward high totals; they attack them. If both teams are pushing pace and generating high shot volume, clearing 243 isn’t a stretch — it’s the expectation.

Jazz vs Heat prediction: Over 242.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Minnesota Timberwolves will be playing the second leg of a back-to-back situation when they host the Atlanta Hawks on Monday night. Minnesota is reeling in a big way right now. It squandered an 18-point second-half lead over the lowly Pelicans on Friday and then got absolutely blown out at home by the Clippers on Sunday. Playing the third game in four nights on the heels of those two disasters is not a recipe for success. Moreover, the T-Wolves are 1-3 straight up in their last 4 overall and 5-8 in their last 13. Although the Hawks are nothing special, they are more than capable of capitalizing on an extremely vulnerable opponent. My Hawks vs Timberwolves prediction is for the visitors to cover.

Atlanta was active prior to the trade deadline, but its starting 5 is basically the one it has been playing with for most of the season and reserves CJ McCollum and Corey Kispert have already gotten plenty of games under their belt with their new team. The chemistry is there for the new-look Hawks, who are a solid 6-3 in their last 9 outings. Home-court advantage may not be a huge boost for the ‘Wolves. They are a decent 17-9 at the Target Center in 2025-26, but the Hawks are actually better on the road than they are at home (16-13 compared to 10-15). Give me Atlanta to keep it close.

Hawks vs Timberwolves prediction: Atlanta +6 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +5.5.

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Losing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to an injury is proving to be a stumbling block for the OKC Thunder, who have now lost back-to-back games. For any team in the NBA that would be nothing out of the ordinary, but for the 40-13 SU defending champs it’s always a stunner when something like this happens. Despite the losing streak, they head into LA as favorites to take on the Lakers — hoping to go up 2-0 in the regular-season series following a 121-92 win against them back in mid-November. OKC is yet to lose 3 games in a row this season; you can bet that they will be playing with an extra edge in order for that not to happen.

Meanwhile, the Lakers will be full of confidence as well following their third win in a row. Playing without Luka Doncic wasn’t detrimental as we thought it would be — at least not against a team like the Warriors, whom they disposed of 105-99. LA has played only 22 home games this season compared to 29 on the road, so you could say that a favorable stretch is coming for them and it’s important to stay locked in. The offense hasn’t collapsed without Doncic as many people thought it would. Austin Reaves is back from injury and doing his best to fill in the gaps. With the addition of Luke Kennard, I think the Lakers will improve a fair bit from downtown.

OKC will probably win outright, but I feel like the Lakers aren’t without a chance despite missing Doncic. They have the advantage of playing at home, plus the Thunder just played yesterday and lost to the Rockets — which means they have very little time to rest and recover. The Lakers have covered 6 times in the last 8 home games and I’m confident they’ll keep things close or possibly even win.

Thunder vs Lakers prediction: Los Angeles +5.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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