NBA Picks

Context is key and the under here makes sense, if the Magic are going to want to pull the upset in this series they will have to lean on what got them there to begin with and what also enabled them to win Game 1: defense and physicality. That means fewer possessions, longer half-court sets and a deliberate effort to keep Detroit out of rhythm. All of that naturally pushes toward the Under.

Detroit, importantly, does not resist that style. The Pistons actually embrace it. They comfortable playing in structured, slower environments where execution matters more than pace. When both teams are aligned stylistically, games tend to compress rather than expand. The low total might scare some off, but it’s low for a reason. Playoff basketball, especially early in a series, tends to be more methodical. Teams prioritize stops, limit transition opportunities and force opponents into tougher shot profiles. This isn’t a spot where either side is incentivized to open things up. The Magic need to grind, and Detroit is content to meet them there. That creates a game script where scoring comes in smaller bursts rather than sustained runs. Even with the number already reduced, the matchup still points clearly in one direction. This has all the makings of a physical, possession-by-possession battle. In other words, a true rock fight.

Magic vs Pistons Game 2 prediction: Under 218.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Game 2 between the Phoenix Suns and the Oklahoma City Thunder is set for tonight. The Thunder are heavy favorites on their home floor tonight after they dominated the Suns 119-84 in Game 1. Oklahoma City dominated almost every facet of the contest. The Thunder outscored the Suns 52 to 24 in the paint and they held the Suns to 35% shooting while forcing 19 turnovers.

The Suns certainly struggled to contain the Thunder without center Mark Williams on the floor. Williams is listed as questionable for tonight’s game. These teams are very familiar with each other. They played each other 5 times during the regular season, with Oklahoma City taking 3. The Suns handed the Thunder 2 of their losses this season, but it is worth mentioning that one of those wins came in the last game of the season when each team was resting their starters. I’m looking at the Suns’ 108-105 win over the Thunder back on January 4 to see if there is a formula head coach Jordan Ott might turn toward to try to compete in Game 2. The Suns won with fast-paced play and a high volume of threes. Phoenix was 17-for-43 from three that game and won the fast-break points battle 15-2.

In Game 1, the Suns limited possessions and played in the half court more than getting out and running. I think the Suns believed they could match the Thunder’s physicality, but Oklahoma City’s defense is a different breed in the postseason — especially when it can get into its set. The Suns’ 19 turnovers resulted in a 34-2 disparity in points off turnovers, and it allowed Oklahoma City to flip the fast-break points in their favor. I believe the Suns saw that they can’t compete in the half court against the playoff Thunder, and they will try to speed this game back up to avoid the Thunder’s defense getting set. OKC should follow suit and run with Phoenix, because in all honesty, the home side can win this game in any format. But if Game 2 speeds up and both teams are making their threes, this game should go over this total. 

Suns vs Thunder Game 2 prediction: Over 215.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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After holding serve and winning the opening two games, the Cavaliers are now looking to deliver the knockout punch as they head to Canada for another date with the Raptors. You’d be hard-pressed to find any flaws in the team’s performances through the first two games, as Cleveland never trailed in Game 2 in what was a wire-to-wire victory. With the series now switching to Canada for the next two games, things could get a lot more interesting. The oddsmakers still view the Cavs as slight favorites, even though history tells us it’s been difficult for them to get results there. Over the past 14 visits, they’ve got just 4 wins at Scotiabank Arena, plus they finished the regular season covering only once in 5 road games.

Scottie Barnes and RJ Barrett showed up for the Raptors in Game 2, combining for 48 points, while Brandon Ingram was a no-show with just 7 points on 3-for-15 shooting and 5 turnovers. It’s been a struggle for the former Laker so far in this series, so maybe a change of scenery helps him bounce back in Game 3? During the regular season he averaged 3.8 ppg more and shot 4.6% better from the field and 8% better from three in home games. Getting Immanuel Quickley back from his hamstring injury would also be helpful, as Toronto really missed his 16.4 ppg on offense. Quickley also averaged 6.3 assists per game in 3 meetings with the Cavs during the regular season, having him handling the ball would do wonders for head coach Darko Rajakovic, who has struggled to put his main scorers in positions to score due to a lack of ball handlers available to him.

It’s now or never for the Raptors. I’m expecting a completely different game than the first 2 we watched in Cleveland. It’s hard to imagine a player of Ingram’s experience playing three consecutive bad games at this stage. Toronto has covered in 8 of 9 home games coming into this one, they’re also 10-4 SU in 14 home games vs the Cavs. Going down 3-0 would basically mean elimination, so let’s back the Raps to bounce back here. Toronto wins Game 3.

Cavaliers vs Raptors Game 3 prediction: Raptors ML (+125) available at time of publishing. Playable to +120.