NBA Picks

The Mavs completely fumbled the ball last night, losing to the Lakers at home despite having a 15-point lead. I guess for a young team like Dallas, that shouldn’t come as a surprise. It will now look to bounce back less than 24 hours later in Milwaukee against the Bucks. That loss against the Lakers ended a 4-game winning streak for the Mavs, who remain in the play-in tournament hunt in the West — currently occupying 12th place. The first meeting between the 2 sides was decided by just 2 points in Dallas back in November, with Giannis Antetokounmpo stealing the show with 30 points and 8 rebounds. It was the Mavs’ seventh consecutive loss in head-to-head meetings.

No Giannis this time around means that the task of extending that winning streak will be a lot tougher for the Bucks, who are just 3-11 SU without their superstar this season. The hopes of making it into the postseason took a big hit with him injuring his calf, which means at least a month without him in the lineup. That’s just something Milwaukee cannot survive in my opinion. The Bucks have now dropped 5 of 6 games, while at home they have failed to cover in 6 straight. Over the past 10 games they rank 24th both in offensive and defensive efficiency.

Dallas has actually faired well in back-to-backs this season, winning 5 of 8 games. The Mavericks’ defense is a lot more confidence-inspiring than the Bucks’ D right now. The last 10 games have seen the Mavs allow just 109.8 points per 100 possessions, ranking fifth in efficiency. They are the smarter pick after going 4-1 SU in their last 5 games. Let’s roll with Dallas.

Mavericks vs Bucks prediction: Dallas +1.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The San Antonio Spurs have won 5 straight games on their home court. They will be looking to make it 6 in a row with a victory over the New Orleans Pelicans on Sunday night. Overall, the Spurs are 16-5 when playing at home; the Pelicans are only 4-17 when playing on the road. San Antonio has already beaten New Orleans 3 times this season. Despite the lopsided outcomes, each game between these 2 teams was very competitive. The final scores were 120-116 in overtime, 126-119 and 135-132. In 2 of those 3, Pelicans star Zion Williamson did not play. Williamson is expected to start tonight for New Orleans, and the Pelicans have shown they are a much better team this season when he is on the floor. New Orleans is 3-13 this season when playing without Williamson — 8-23 when he plays. While both records are well below .500, the Pelicans’ win percentage is 7% higher when Williamson plays versus when he is out. Williamson has had help around him, as well.

In the Pelicans’ last win over the Memphis Grizzlies, Saddiq Bey scored a career-high 36 points, with 19 of those points coming in the fourth quarter. Trey Murphy III also added 32 points to guide the Pelicans to the comeback victory. We have seen that the Pelicans can be competitive when playing against the Spurs, and I expect they give another good effort tonight.

Pelicans vs Spurs prediction: New Orleans +11.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Toronto Raptors have been successful on their current road trip, winning 3 of 4 games. They will be facing a tough challenge tonight as they take on the Oklahoma City Thunder. They will be helped by the fact that the Thunder are dealing with several injuries with starters Jalen Williams and Isaiah Hartenstein out along with the likes of Alex Caruso and Ajay Mitchell. The Raptors have not escaped the injury bug, either, with Jakob Poeltl out and Immanuel Quickley and Collin Murray-Boyles listed as questionable. If those who are questionable are cleared to play, the Raptors could have the depth advantage in this one.

Over the last 10 games the Raptors have been efficient in crashing the offensive glass, ranking in the top 10 of the league in second-chance points per game. They will need to rely on this, too, considering that during that stretch of games the Thunder are fourth in defensive rating. Those boards should be available for them considering the Thunder are dead last in rebounding percentage over those 10 games. Scottie Barnes could be a difference maker here, too. He is coming into this game on the heels of a 6-block performance. He is someone that could make life difficult for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander whenever he switches onto him. With the injuries to OKC’s roster and the fact that the Thunder have taken recent losses to the Indiana Pacers and Miami Heat, let’s take the points with the Raptors.

Raptors vs Thunder prediction: Toronto +11.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +10.5.

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The Phoenix Suns will be looking for their seventh straight win on their home floor when they host the Miami Heat on Sunday night. In order to continue the winning streak, the Suns will need to find success without Devin Booker and potentially Jalen Green. In the last game against Atlanta, Booker twisted his ankle and had to exit. It has been announced that Booker will not play tonight against Miami and that Green is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury. A next-man-up mentality is required for Phoenix if it wants to avenge a 127-121 loss to the Heat on January 13.

The Heat will also have some key players out for this matchup. Tyler Herro and Kel’el Ware are both sidelined due to injury. Miami has been dealing with injuries all season, and it has resulted in inconsistent play. The Heat are only 10-15 in their last 25 overall and they haven’t won back-to-back games since January 1. Even without Booker and Green, the Suns should still be favored. Phoenix is a deep team, and Collin Gillespie and Grayson Allen will be prepared to step into the starting lineup tonight. I like the Suns to get a win on their home floor to avenge their last loss against Miami.

Heat vs Suns prediction: Phoenix -4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Nets redeemed themselves on the heels of an embarrassing 54-point loss to the Knicks earlier in the week by pushing the Boston Celtics to double-OT in their last game. They still lost by 4 points, but you cannot argue with the effort. Still, there are big issues right now that need to be addressed, mainly on the defensive end — where the Nets have allowed 120+ points in 4 consecutive games. They did the same in the first meeting of the season with the Clippers, when they lost 121-105 some 2 weeks ago. On the road the Nets are 0-6 SU in their last 6 outings. It doesn’t look like they will be ending that poor run against the Clippers, who have beaten them in 5 of the last 6 meetings.

Once again, Kawhi Leonard is day-do-day with a knee issue — but by now we are pretty much used to that being a daily thing for the Clippers. He put on a heroic display against the Lakers with 24 points and stellar defense down the stretch, as the Clippers won for the 12th time in 15 games — which is the best record in the NBA over that stretch. Ivica Zubac also excelled with 18 points and 19 rebounds — 10 of them on offense. The run that the Clippers are on has been truly remarkable. Only once in their last 7 games against East teams have they lost, and at the Intuit Dome they are 9-1 ATS in 10 games. Anything other than a dominant Clippers win would be a surprise. Even if Kawhi doesn’t play, there are plenty of options on offense for the Clippers to turn to here. I’ll be backing the most in-form team in the NBA to cover.

Nets vs Clippers prediction: Los Angeles -8.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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