NBA Picks

Coming into this series, we all knew that the Knicks had the edge experience-wise when it came to playing in the postseason, and the series opener just highlighted that even more. In some stretches of the game the Hawks’ offense looked a tad too slow and that’s really a bad sign for a young team like theirs. New York actually won the fast break point battle 22-13, that’s something you definitely want to see change as this series progresses if you’re head coach Quinn Snyder. I also expect them to attack the basket a lot more in Game 2, only 19 free throws compared to 30 by the Knicks is also something to look at. Over the past 7 meetings, they’ve now lost 6 against the Knicks, but again I feel like all the pressure is on the Knicks to deliver in Game 2.

If you’re a Knicks fan, you have to be delighted with what you saw in the opener from your team, but especially from Karl-Anthony Towns. KAT came alive in the 2nd half, making play after play on offense, and aside from Okongwu, the Hawks aren’t exactly equipped to handle a big player that can shoot at the PF/C positions. Another positive the Knicks can take away from Game 1 was their bench production. On paper, 20 points might not sound like a lot, but for a team that’s often struggled with depth in their previous two postseason runs that is very encouraging. I don’t think we’ll see that many adjustments made for Game 2, one thing I would like to see though is an increase in ball movement and more assists. I am not confident that the Knicks can win back-to-back games here if they lose the assists battle again.

Speeding things up in Game 2 will be critical for the Hawks, plus getting Jalen Johnson and Nickeil Alexander-Walker into better spots to be more effective on offense. Game 1 saw them shoot a combined 14-for-36 which isn’t all that good. Atlanta has a 22-20 SU record in home games this season and has covered in 23 of those 42 games. They also have the experience of winning at MSG, having done so back in early January. It’s always more difficult for the home team to prepare Game 2 when they’re up 1-0, I think the Hawks can at least make this a game if not pull off the upset on Monday. Back the Hawks plus the points.

Hawks vs Knicks prediction: Hawks +5.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Favorites dominated across Game 1 in the first round of the NBA Playoffs, as the favorite won and covered in 6 of the 8 games. If you believe that these trends could zig-zag and underdogs could have a better showing in Game 2, this game is one that you may want circled. The Denver Nuggets defeated the Minnesota Timberwolves 116-105 in Game 1 behind 30 points from Jamal Murray. The Timberwolves got off to a fast start in this game with an early double digit lead, but Denver eventually found their footing and broke this game open in their favor in the third quarter. It was a typical home playoff performance where Denver’s role players, with the benefit of their home arena, outplayed Minnesota’s role players. Christian Braun, Spencer Jones, Tim Hardaway Jr, and Bruce Brown went a combined 5-9 from deep, making up for Murray’s 0-8 shooting from downtown. Murray benefitted from a beneficial whistle in this game with 16 of his 30 points coming from the free throw line.

Minnesota has the pieces to beat Denver in Game 2, but the Timberwolves will need the referees to allow them to play a more physical style of defense than they allowed in Game 1. That physical defense was the formula in the 2024 postseason to slow down Murray, as the Kentucky product averaged a career-playoff-low in that series with only 18.4 points per game on 40% shooting. If you remember, Murray was so frustrated by Minnesota’s physical defense that he threw a heating pad on the floor during play. With fewer trips to the line, Murray’s Game 1 would have fit in line with his 2024 performances. With that in mind, the Timberwolves once again come out aggressive defensively in this one with their backs against the wall. I’ll back the Timberwolves and take the points tonight on the road.

Timberwolves vs Nuggets prediction: Timberwolves +6.5 (-110) available at the time of publishing. Playable to +5.5.

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Boston checks every box to be a market darling in Game 2 – they’ve been dominant against the number down the backstretch of the regular season, they’re at home, they are a name brand side with pedigree, and they just beat Philadelphia by 32 in Game One. The key isn’t whether Boston is better, they clearly are. The question is whether backing them here is going with the best of it. I dare say it is not. Blowouts like Game One tend to distort expectations, but they rarely carry over cleanly into the next game. Adjustments are made, urgency increases, and the trailing team typically responds with a more controlled and concerted effort.

Philadelphia, despite being the last team into the playoff field via the play-in route, now plays with a clearer objective: stabilize, compete, and try to even the series. That alone tends to reduce volatility and limit extreme outcomes. Boston’s strength is efficiency and structure, not necessarily relentless margin-building. They are team that likes to lean into defense and make smart plays. When games normalize, their style doesn’t always support covering inflated numbers like this repeatedly. After a Game 1, the Celtics even at this price, look too easy, and that’s exactly the problem. When that transpires, the value almost always sits with the other side, even if it appears otherwise. In this case, it’s Sixers or nothing. Take the points.

76ers vs Celtics prediction: 76ers +13.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +13.

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The San Antonio Spurs opened the series with a convincing 111-98 win over the Portland Trail Blazers, covering the 12.5-point spread in Game 1 behind a dominant showing from Victor Wembanyama. The rookie star delivered 35 points in his playoff debut, controlling the game on both ends with efficient scoring and rim protection that disrupted Portland’s offensive rhythm. Despite the final margin, the Blazers had stretches where they competed effectively, led by Deni Avdija, who posted a strong 30-point, 10-rebound performance, while Scoot Henderson added secondary scoring. However, Portland’s struggles from beyond the arc and inability to sustain runs ultimately allowed San Antonio to pull away, highlighting the Spurs’ depth and shot making advantage.

Heading into Game 2, the betting market provides an intriguing shift. The line once again opened at Spurs -12.5 but has since moved slightly toward Portland, settling around -11.5. That movement suggests some confidence in the Blazers’ ability to adjust and compete more effectively this time around. While San Antonio has clearly shown it can elevate its play in the postseason, covering large spreads in back to back games is rarely straightforward. Portland has already demonstrated it can hang around for stretches, and with improved perimeter shooting and better control of turnovers, they should be able to keep this game more competitive. Ultimately, while the Spurs remain the superior team and are likely to maintain control of the series, the margin feels less secure in this specific spot. Playoff adjustments, potential shooting regression from Game 1, and the slight line movement all point toward a tighter contest. Portland may not have enough to steal a win, but the Trail Blazers are positioned to stay within striking distance for much of the game and avoid another lopsided result.

Trail Blazers vs Spurs prediction: Trail Blazers +11.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +10.5.

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Will Kevin Durant play? That is the most important question going into Game 2. After bumping knees with a teammate in warm-ups last week, KD opted to sit out the series opener as he just wasn’t feeling right. Without him the Rockets offense just looked discombobulated, despite taking 27 (!!!) shots more than the Lakers and out-rebounding them 44-35 (and 21-3 on offense), Houston just couldn’t do much even against a shorthanded Lakers team. Game 2 is massive for them now, going down 2-0 would mean they’d need to win 4 of the next 6 which would be extremely tough. Is it time to hit the panic button after just one game?

The Lakers played an extremely efficient brand of basketball on offense, at least from a shot selection perspective. They ended the game shooting 61% from the field and 53% from three, with Luke Kennard leading the way scoring 27 pts on a perfect 5-for-5 from downtown. LA did turn the ball over 18 times which is concerning, but then again with only LeBron and Marcus Smart being able to play make on offense that’s not really surprising. Speaking of LeBron, he ended the game with 13 assists, doing his best Magic Johnson impression in Luka’s absence. I do not anticipate the Lakers changing things up all that much for Game 2, realistically what can they even change with their two best players being out?

KD playing or not makes all the difference here. With two days in between Games 1 and 2 one would think he would have enough time to fully recover. Houston has the experience of winning in LA, having done so earlier this season in the lone meeting at Crypto.com Arena. This is a must-win situation as it can be after just one game played for a team and I think Ime Udoka and his men respond. Give me Houston to cover.

Rockets vs Lakers prediction: Rockets -4.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Cleveland Cavaliers and Toronto Raptors return for Game 2 after Cleveland opened the series with a 126-113 victory, covering the closing 8.5-point spread. Donovan Mitchell led the way with 32 points, pacing an offense that found consistent rhythm both inside and beyond the arc. Cleveland’s turning point came in the third quarter, where a decisive run created separation and exposed Toronto’s defensive lapses in transition. Contributions from the supporting cast, including key bench scoring, helped the Cavaliers maintain control down the stretch. Still, despite the final score, Toronto showed competitiveness early, with Scottie Barnes and a balanced offensive effort keeping the game within reach before Cleveland’s surge shifted momentum.

Heading into Game 2, the betting line remains unchanged at Cavaliers -8.5, creating an intriguing situational angle. Typically, when a favorite covers comfortably in Game 1 and the spread holds steady, there can be value on the underdog to respond with adjustments. While Cleveland has demonstrated it can elevate its play in the postseason, it has also shown inconsistency when tasked with covering larger spreads in consecutive games. Toronto should enter with increased urgency, likely focusing on limiting runs, tightening defensive rotations, and controlling tempo more effectively. Even if Cleveland ultimately maintains control of the series, expecting another double digit margin under identical conditions feels less certain. With playoff intensity rising and adjustments expected, this matchup projects to be more competitive than Game 1 suggests, giving Toronto a strong opportunity to keep the game within the number.

Raptors vs Cavaliers prediction: Raptors +8.5 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable to +7.5

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