UFC 275: Tim Elliot vs. Steve Erceg Prediction

UFC 275: Tim Elliot vs. Steve Erceg Prediction for Saturday, 05/02/26

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Sat May 2
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UFC 275: Tim Elliot vs. Steve Erceg Pickswise Expert Predictions

Money Line Pick
Elliot Win(+210)

The fourth fight on the Main Card at UFC Fight Night 275 will see Tim Elliot take on Steve Erceg. This will be a fight in the UFC Flyweight division. Elliot enters this fight with an MMA record of 22-13-1 and 10-11 in the UFC. He is averaging 3.37 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 44%. Elliot absorbs 2.65 strikes and has a striking defense of 57%. His grappling is also solid, averaging 3.71 takedowns every 15 minutes and 1.1 submission attempts during the same period. He has a takedown accuracy of 47% and a takedown defense of 59%.

Erceg comes into this fight with an MMA record of 13-4 and 4-3 in the UFC. He is averaging 4.00 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 45%. Erceg is absorbing 3.79 strikes and has a striking defense of 52%. His grappling is decent, averaging 1.15 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 27%, and his takedown defense is 62%.

Erceg is the heavy favorite in this fight; however, Elliot looks to be a decent upset pick. Erceg has the edge in striking volume, but his grappling and submission ability do not compare to Elliot’s. On top of that, Erceg is 1-3 in his last 4 UFC fights, while Elliot is 3-1 over the same stretch. Given this, backing Elliot to score the upset will be our lean.

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Matthew Lowrimore

Matthew has been with Pickswise for a while now, covering a wide variety of sports. His main passions are college football and UFC, and those are the sports he has covered the most. Matthew uses a variety of methods to handicap games, including stats, trends, injuries, and situational factors. His goal is to consistently give out winners and will put in the research to try and achieve this. For Matt Lowrimore media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.
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