UFC 275: Tim Elliot vs. Steve Erceg Prediction for Saturday, 05/02/26

The fourth fight on the Main Card at UFC Fight Night 275 will see Tim Elliot take on Steve Erceg. This will be a fight in the UFC Flyweight division. Elliot enters this fight with an MMA record of 22-13-1 and 10-11 in the UFC. He is averaging 3.37 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 44%. Elliot absorbs 2.65 strikes and has a striking defense of 57%. His grappling is also solid, averaging 3.71 takedowns every 15 minutes and 1.1 submission attempts during the same period. He has a takedown accuracy of 47% and a takedown defense of 59%.

Erceg comes into this fight with an MMA record of 13-4 and 4-3 in the UFC. He is averaging 4.00 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 45%. Erceg is absorbing 3.79 strikes and has a striking defense of 52%. His grappling is decent, averaging 1.15 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 27%, and his takedown defense is 62%.

Erceg is the heavy favorite in this fight; however, Elliot looks to be a decent upset pick. Erceg has the edge in striking volume, but his grappling and submission ability do not compare to Elliot’s. On top of that, Erceg is 1-3 in his last 4 UFC fights, while Elliot is 3-1 over the same stretch. Given this, backing Elliot to score the upset will be our lean.