UFC 328: Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland Prediction for Tomorrow, 05/09/26

The Main Event at 328 will see Khamzat Chimaev take on Sean Strickland. This will be a fight in the UFC Middleweight division and will be for the UFC Middleweight title. Chimaev enters this fight with an MMA record of 15-0 and 9-0 in the UFC. He averages 4.04 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 60%. Chimaev absorbs 2.32 strikes and has a striking defense of 43%. Chimaev also has elite grappling, averaging 5.29 takedowns every 15 minutes and 1.8 submission attempts during the same period. He has a takedown accuracy of 55% and a takedown defense of 85%.

Strickland enters this fight with an MMA record of 30-7 and 17-7 in the UFC. He is averaging 6.04 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 42%. Strickland is absorbing 4.57 strikes and has a striking defense of 60%. His grappling, however, has not been strong, averaging 0.71 takedowns every 15 minutes. He has a takedown accuracy of 64% and a takedown defense of 76%.

Because Chimaev is the significant favorite, we will be looking at a total rounds prop. Strickland has seen his last 8 UFC fights go over 1.5 total rounds, while Chimaev has seen 3 of his last 5 UFC fights do the same. Chimaev certainly has the ability to end this fight almost instantly, but Strickland is one of the toughest fighters in the UFC, and should be able to survive a few rounds before being overwhelmed. Because of that, backing this fight to go over 1.5 total rounds is our lean.