NBA Picks

On paper, backing the Cavaliers hasn’t been profitable this season, as their 8-21 record against the spread suggests. However, that inefficiency is exactly why value exists on Monday. The market has consistently discounted Cleveland due to poor ATS results, even when the matchup clearly favors that side. This game against Charlotte is one of those spots in which the number doesn’t fully reflect the talent gap.

Charlotte’s defensive issues are well-documented. The Hornets rank among the league’s weakest perimeter defenses, which plays directly into Cleveland’s strengths. The Cavaliers boast multiple shot creators who can punish late rotations and extend leads quickly once they gain momentum. Offensively, the Hornets simply don’t have the scoring punch or efficiency to keep pace. This is a game script that favors a runaway scenario. Cleveland can build separation early, forcing Charlotte to chase the game and take lower-quality shots. That dynamic only widens the margin as the game progresses. With the spread suppressed due to Cleveland’s ATS struggles, bettors are getting the superior team at a reduced price. This is a strong position to confidently lay the points.

Hornets vs Cavaliers prediction: Cleveland -9 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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This is a classic case of market inflation driven by reputation rather than reality. Boston at home against a struggling Indiana squad feels like an easy Celtics click, which is exactly why the number has ballooned. When bettors back the Celtics, they are not just betting basketball — they are betting the logo, the narrative and Boston’s perceived dominance.

Indiana’s 6-22 record is ugly, but that’s the point. Poor teams are often priced as if they’re incapable of competing, even when the matchup doesn’t justify such a large spread. The Pacers don’t need to be good to be profitable today — they simply need to stay competitive enough to cash a generous number. Boston is still the better team and may very well win this game comfortably. However, covering double-digits is a different challenge — especially against a team playing with nothing to lose. Blowout assumptions are dangerous when lines are this inflated. Any late-game variance, bench minutes, or reduced urgency from Boston opens the door for Indiana to hang around the number. This is a value-based play, not an endorsement of Indiana’s quality. When perception pushes a spread too far, the sharp side is taking the points — and that’s exactly the case here.

Pacers vs Celtics prediction: Indiana +10 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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This line immediately raises eyebrows, which is exactly why it deserves attention. New Orleans is not a team the betting public is eager to back, especially against a Dallas squad that has found its rhythm and begun to look like a legitimate threat in the Western Conference. Yet despite all of that, the Pelicans are laying a point at home.

Situationally, this sets up well for New Orleans. Dallas has one eye already on a showdown against Denver tomorrow. That looming spotlight creates a classic lookahead spot — a scheduling dynamic that often leads to flat performances against lesser opponents. These are the exact scenarios in which inferior teams catch opponents off guard. The Pelicans don’t need to be better over the long haul; they just need to be sharper tonight. Playing at home, with urgency and nothing ahead to distract them, New Orleans is positioned to capitalize on any lack of focus from Dallas. These “why is this team favored?” lines exist for a reason. The market is signaling that New Orleans is no speed bump. In spots like this, trusting the line over perception is the sharp approach. I’m doing that and taking the Pels to get it done.

Mavericks vs Pelicans prediction: New Orleans -1 (-105) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Utah’s recent high-scoring games have created a perception that every Jazz matchup must be played at breakneck pace. As a result, the number has been pushed into rare air, approaching 250 points — a threshold that requires near-perfect offensive execution from both sides.

The flaw in that assumption is matchup-specific. Denver is uniquely equipped to disrupt Utah’s offensive rhythm. The Nuggets can control pace, limit transition opportunities and force Utah to make mistakes. If the Jazz are held even modestly below their recent output, this total becomes extremely difficult to reach. Yes, Denver has the league’s most efficient offense and is fully capable of putting up a massive number. But context matters. With a trip to Dallas tomorrow and then a Christmas Day matchup against the Minnesota Timberwolves looming, there’s little incentive for Denver to extend starters or push tempo deep into the game. A comfortable win achieved through control rather than chaos benefits them more. This number is rooted in expectation, not necessity. Utah being slowed even slightly forces Denver to carry an unrealistic share of the scoring load. That imbalance strongly favors the under at this inflated total.

Jazz vs Nuggets prediction: Under 247.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Thunder deserve every bit of praise they are getting. Undefeated at home, elite efficiency on both ends of the floor and firmly established as the team to beat — all of that is true. The problem for bettors is that the market knows it, too. Oklahoma City’s dominance has been fully priced in, pushing spreads into territory that becomes increasingly difficult to justify.

This is one of those spots. Laying 16.5 points in the NBA isn’t just about being better — it requires sustained focus, clean rotations and often a willingness to keep starters engaged deep into the game. That’s a tall order against any team. Memphis has fallen apart this season and offers little public appeal. That lack of interest is precisely what inflates numbers like this. The Grizzlies don’t need to be competitive for four quarters; they simply need to avoid a complete collapse. Garbage-time variance, bench minutes, or even a slight easing of intensity from OKC can quickly bring a number like this back into range. This is a classic price-based play. Oklahoma City may win comfortably, but at this altitude, the spread becomes unplayable. The value lies in taking the points and trusting the math.

Grizzlies vs Thunder prediction: Memphis +16.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +16.

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The Eastern Conference-leading Pistons begin a 5-game West Coast road trip, which will see them face the Trail Blazers, Kings, Jazz, Clippers and Lakers in a span of just 10 days. It’s always important to start off a road trip on a high note. They have already beaten the Blazers once this season 122-116 at home a little over 2 weeks ago. Since then the Pistons have won 4 of 5 games, with Cade Cunningham continuing his case as a darkhorse in the MVP race. His playmaking and scoring ability have the Pistons 10th in offensive efficiency, up 5 spots compared to last season.

Portland also loves to score; it actually plays at the second-fastest pace in the league, averaging 105.1 possessions per game. Although their efficiency might not be among the best, the Trail Blazers still rank in the upper tier when it comes to points per game. Deni Avdija is making his best case to make the jump to all-star this season; he torched the Pistons with 35 points in the first meeting. Portland actually has a very positive record of 13 wins in 17 home games against the Pistons, so it will be interesting to see if the Blazers can capitalize on that tonight.

Backing the over has been the way to go in Portland games at the Moda Center. This bet has yielded profit in 8 of 11 games, while for the season they are 18-10 on the O/U. Detroit relies on defense to win games on most nights, but it won’t mind running and gunning with the Blazers. The last 3 meetings have averaged 234 points per game, with the over cashing twice. I’m backing the points.

Pistons vs Trail Blazers prediction: Over 234.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Magic are 1-1 SU on this tough 4-game West coast road trip. They needed OT to outlast the Jazz over the weekend; now they face a Warriors team that’s beaten them 11 times in 12 meetings at Chase Center. Do the Magic stand a chance? Well, it depends. Whether or not Jalen Suggs plays could have a massive difference on the outcome of this game. He hasn’t played since the NBA Cup semifinal loss to the Knicks due to a hip injury; his status has been updated to game-time decision. When he sits the defensive rating goes down to 119.4 points allowed per 100 possessions, while when he plays, it’s at 111.9. Stephen Curry would have a much harder time scoring the ball if Suggs were to guard him.

Speaking of Curry, he has been doing pretty well from an individual standpoint this season — delivering his standard 28.8 points per game and 40% efficiency from 3-point land. However, the Warriors have a flawed roster and find themselves below the .500 mark after almost 30 games played. A big man would definitely help them out; teams are just taking advantage of their lack of an interior presence. Golden State ranks only 22nd in rebounds, averaging just 52 per game. History is on the Dubs’ side ahead of Monday’s game, though, and they beaten the Magic in 11 of 12 meetings at home — but lately they have struggled to cover at Chase Center (0-5 ATS).

From a historical standpoint, it would make way more sense to back the Warriors — but since we live in the present, I’m taking the Magic. I’m hoping Suggs gets cleared to play; his defense combined with solid outputs from Bane and Banchero, I think the Magic really have a solid chance. This is an excellent opportunity for them to improve on that poor run of road games in San Francisco.

Orlando Magic vs Golden State Warriors Predictions: Magic ML is available at +175 odds at time of publishing.

Christmas Day at Madison Square Garden go together like peanut butter and jelly. The New York Knicks and the holiday spotlight are inseparable — and bettors pay a premium every time. That premium is clearly built into this number. The Cleveland Cavaliers once upon a time were short underdogs and have steadily drifted to a bigger price despite no dramatic shift in on-court matchup quality.

Yes, Cleveland has been a gross disappointment against the spread this season, and that inefficiency weighs heavily on perception. But inefficiency is also what creates opportunity. The Knicks’ ambitions, their NBA Cup win, and living annually in the Christmas Day spotlight has inflated the number next to their name before we go any further. If Cleveland were more profitable overall and more importantly if this game were played on a random January night, Cleveland would not be catching this type of price. The Cavaliers have the tools to compete here and win, not just cover. So we’ll approach it as such. We’ll go in for the kill here and take The Land outright to become Ebenezer Scrooge.

Cavaliers vs Knicks prediction: Cavaliers +165 (ML) available at time of publishing. Playable at number.

The Dallas Mavericks spent most of this market cycle as a +4.5 underdog, a number that reasonably reflected the matchup. The subsequent line moves aren’t about a sudden on-court downgrade — it’s about perception. Dallas hasn’t lived up to preseason hype, while the Golden State Warriors benefit from brand power, Christmas Day familiarity, and public trust.

That trust is misleading. Recent results show Dallas is far more competitive than their record suggests. They’ve beaten teams like Denver, Miami, Houston, and Detroit — clubs that are every bit more capable than this version of Golden State. The Warriors are no longer some untouchable juggernaut; they’re the chalk because they have the equity and casual appeal on this stage. When the market stretches a line based on narrative rather than matchup, value appears. Dallas can not only compete here, they can win outright. But we aren’t asking the Mavs to do that. With extra points added purely due to perception, grabbing the Mavericks is the sharp side.

Mavericks vs Warriors prediction: Mavericks +6.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to +6.

For much of the market cycle, the Los Angeles Lakers were positioned as short favorites, even as Houston surged early and the Lakers were hampered with injuries along with a sluggish start. Now, after both teams are playing winning basketball in the heart of the playoff race, but the market has flipped with Houston crossing over — and in doing so, handed value to the Lakers.

The Houston Rockets deserve credit. They’re a force on the glass and have the ability to stretch the floor. But the Lakers can match that. Both rosters feature Hall of Fame legends and clutch playmakers. This is a game that would be to close to call if it were a horse race. When a game profiles as a toss up, the prudent choice becomes simple: take the plus money. The Lakers were once favored in this spot, and now they’re available at an underdog price due to one-sided Rockets action rather than the match-up itself. That’s the definition of finding equity in the market. In games like this, price outweighs preference — and the Lakers are the right side in this situation.

Rockets vs Lakers prediction: Lakers +120 (ML) available at time of publishing. Playable at number.