NBA Picks

The Indiana Pacers finally got their first win of the season on Saturday with a 114-109 defeat of the Golden State Warriors, but I hesitate to say that this will lead to any type of momentum moving forward. Players such as Bennedict Mathurin and Pascal Siakam have played major roles for the Pacers to begin the year, but Mathurin will be absent on Monday with an injury when Indiana takes on a relatively healthy Milwaukee Bucks team. The Bucks are 4-2 on the season and dropped their last game to the Sacramento Kings on Saturday 135-133. More importantly, the Bucks are 5-1 against the spread thus far. I’m laying the points with them on the road Monday night.

Without Tyrese Haliburton, the Pacers’ offense has really struggled to find any sort of rhythm to begin the season. Indiana ranks 29th in offensive rating and has averaged just 108 points per game over the last 5 games after scoring 135 points in its opener. Indiana is going to have difficulty keeping up with a Milwaukee team that has scored 120 points or more in 5 of 6 games and ranks fourth in offensive rating. Giannis Antetokounmpo is leading the NBA in scoring at 34.2 ppg and it’s hard to see how the Pacers find a way to slow him down over 4 quarters. I’m backing the Bucks to win and cover in Indianapolis.

Bucks vs Pacers prediction: Milwaukee -6 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to -7.

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The Brooklyn Nets are still looking for their first win of the NBA season. After starting 0-6, Brooklyn will welcome in the Minnesota Timberwolves on Monday night in hopes to end the losing streak. The Nets are coming off a 129-105 defeat against the Philadelphia 76ers. The offense started fast for the Nets, but the scoring slowed down in the second quarter, in which they were outscored 33-18, and the Nets were never able to get back in the game from that point. Cam Thomas was the Nets’ leading scorer with 29 points. The Timberwolves have a record of 3-3 this season, and their last win was a 122-105 win against the Charlotte Hornets on Saturday. Minnesota was without Anthony Edwards, but Julius Randle led the team to victory with 30 points. Edwards will be out with an injury until the middle of November. It was the team’s first win of the season in a game that Edwards did not start. They had lost the previous 2. 

The Timberwolves have not looked like they did in the last 2 seasons. They are playing lethargic and uninspired on the defensive end. The ‘Wolves have not closed out well on shooters and they have not created turnovers. Minnesota finished first in defensive rating in 2023-24 and was sixth in 2025-26. Early on this season it is ranked 23rd in that category. A switch seemed to flip at halftime against Charlotte. After trailing by 6 going into the half, the Timberwolves turned up intensity — winning the second half 72-49. The T-Wolves can beat any team if they play with this level of urgency, but I am afraid they will revert back to a more relaxed style tonight. The Nets are a young team, but they are scrappy. If you give Brooklyn hope, it has enough talent to hang around and even possibly steal a win. I think the ‘Wolves will let the Nets hang around tonight.

Timberwolves vs Nets prediction: Brooklyn +9 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Utah Jazz are coming into tonight’s matchup against the Boston Celtics on the heels of 3 straight defeats, but they will have a good chance of bouncing back against an opponent that suffered a blowout loss in its last outing. Lauri Markkanen is having a huge season so far, averaging 33.8 points per game. He should prove to be a tough matchup for the home side. Boston’s best perimeter defenders in Derrick White and Jaylen Brown are undersized in comparison and could have issues slowing down the Finnish star. With him drawing defensive attention, it should open the floor up for the rest of Utah’s starters.

One of the main issues the Celtics have is that they have remained a high-volume 3-point shooting team but without the personnel to do it effectively. Neemias Queta is a major dropoff from Al Horford in that category, while the absence of Jayson Tatum at the 4 spot is greatly felt, too. So far this season they are making just 32.6% of their 3-point attempts. Similar struggles from deep will make it difficult for them to blow out any opponent. The Jazz also lead the league in second-chance points per game this season. With the Celtics giving up more points per game in that category than any other team in the league, the Jazz should get enough opportunities to keep this one competitive. I’m taking the points.

Jazz vs Celtics prediction: Utah +10.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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To say that it has been a struggle for the Mavericks in the early going this season would be an understatement. Despite having the luxury of playing all 6 of their first games at home, the Mavs mustered only 2 wins from that stretch and now they head to Houston for their first road game of the season. Anthony Davis going out with a calf injury is another devastating blow to their postseason hopes, relying on a semi-washed Klay Thompson and a rookie point guard in Cooper Flagg to carry them in the absence of AD and Kyrie isn’t ideal at all.

Meanwhile, the Rockets have just caught their stride with 3 consecutive wins — with the offense clicking on all cylinders. They beat the Nets, Raptors and Celtics by an average of 24.3 points per win, so you have to feel good about the state of this team that is battling through adversity early on in the season. Kevin Durant is still producing at a high level, leading the team in scoring at the age of 37. Fred VanVleet is dearly missed at the point-guard position, but the Rockets are showing they have enough playmakers to compensate for his absence. With one team ranking fist in offensive efficiency and the other 30th, it’s quite clear to me who should win Monday’s game. Can the shorthanded Mavs keep this somewhat close? I am not convinced at all. Give me Houston to cover.

Mavericks vs Rockets prediction: Houston -12.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Detroit Pistons enter this matchup looking to steady their rhythm after an up-and-down start to the season. Under head coach JB Bickerstaff, Detroit has leaned into a balanced approach built around Cade Cunningham’s playmaking and Jalen Duren’s interior presence. The Pistons have improved their defensive awareness and are holding opponents to moderate scoring totals despite still struggling with offensive consistency. Detroit lingers in the middle of the pack in terms of pace, and its game-plan typically revolves around controlling tempo and limiting turnovers rather than getting caught in track meets. If the Pistons can dictate the flow and force Memphis into half-court sets, they’ll have a legitimate chance to keep this contest low scoring and competitive.

Memphis, meanwhile, is still searching for consistency as it continues adjusting without Ja Morant at full strength. The Grizzlies have shown displayed their trademark fast-paced style, but injuries and lineup shuffling have disrupted their rhythm. Jaren Jackson Jr. continues to anchor the defense, but the team’s perimeter rotations have been inconsistent — leading to occasional scoring droughts and defensive lapses. Even so, when the Grizzlies are engaged defensively they can grind games to a halt and create turnovers that fuel controlled transition chances. With both teams playing inconsistent offense but capable defense, the tempo should stay moderate and possessions will be hard earned. Expect physical play, slower stretches and plenty of half-court sets that keep the scoring under control.

Pistons vs Grizzlies prediction: Under 236.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 234.5.

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The Sacramento Kings head to Denver banged up and still searching for rhythm early in the season. With Malik Monk and Keegan Murray both out and Zach LaVine questionable due to back soreness, Sacramento’s depth will be stretched thin. This forces the Kings to rely heavily on Domantas Sabonis and DeMar DeRozan for offensive production. While Sacramento’s pace and offensive ceiling can keep it competitive, the defense — ranked near the bottom of the league — continues to be a glaring issue. The Kings have allowed nearly 120 points per game, and facing an offensive juggernaut on the road makes this an uphill battle for a team that has lacked consistency.

Denver, meanwhile, remains one of the league’s most disciplined and efficient squads — led once again by Nikola Jokic, who is averaging triple-double numbers to start the season. Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon complement his play style well, while the Nuggets’ ball movement and spacing continue to be elite. Even with a few players nursing minor injuries, Denver has maintained its dominance at home — where altitude and execution make it one of the toughest outs in basketball. The Nuggets have covered double-digit spreads in similar matchups this year, especially against undermanned opponents. Given Sacramento’s lack of depth and defensive shortcomings, Denver should control this game from the opening tip and pull away late with superior depth and discipline.

Kings vs Nuggets prediction: Denver -11.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to that number.

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We witnessed another masterpiece by Luka Doncic on Sunday night, when he led his Lakers to their 3rd consecutive win with a 29-point, 11-rebound and 10-assist triple-double. It wasn’t the usual dominance in the scoring department, but with the other 4 starters and one bench player all scoring in double-digits, Doncic didn’t have to go out and score 40 to secure the dub. Jake LaRavia stood out with 25 off the bench, while Austin Reaves continued his stellar play with 26 and 11 dimes. The Lakers might need a similar night in terms of production from those 2 players if they want to get a result in Portland on Monday.

The Trail Blazers also enter Monday’s game on a 3-game winning streak, coming off an impressive win over the Nuggets in the NBA Cup opener on Friday. So, unlike LA, they have had plenty of rest ahead of this game — which might put the Lakers in an unfair position. Efficiency hasn’t been atop of the priority list for the Blazers, but they are one of the highest-scoring NBA teams thanks to the high-tempo style they play. They are only second to the Miami Heat in terms of pace, averaging 108.4 possessions per game. This team also allows the second-fewest 3-point shot attempts in the entire NBA, forcing teams to attack the basket — which has them allowing the third-most free-throw attempts.

My only gripe with considering backing the Lakers here is potential fatigue. This will be their second game in 24 hours, plus they had to travel in between games. Portland hasn’t played since Friday and has been at home since the beginning of November. Backing the over is more appropriate given the style of play both teams have displayed so far. I’ll take the over.

Lakers vs Trail Blazers prediction: Over 233.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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The Los Angeles Clippers will look to remain undefeated at home this season when they welcome in the Miami Heat tonight. The Clippers are 3-0 at the Intuit Dome this season, and they have won three of their last four games. They are coming off a 126-124 win against the New Orleans Pelicans last Friday. The Clippers allowed the Pelicans to erase a double digit, fourth quarter deficit, but Kawhi Leonard was able to secure the victory with a buzzer beating game winner. Leonard led the Clippers in scoring with 34 points. The Heat are 3-3 this season, but they have lost their last two games. Their last loss was a 130-120 defeat to the Los Angeles Lakers. Jaime Jaquez Jr. led the Heat in scorer, but Miami could not overcome a triple-double from Luka Doncic. 

The Clippers have gotten off to a solid start, especially on their home court, but they have not covered well against the spread. The Clippers are 1-4 against the spread this season. Despite being unable to cover in four of their last five games, the Clippers are once again receiving a high number to cover tonight against a talented Heat team. The Heat are 4-1-1 against the spread this season, and they are 1-0 in games they are 8-point underdogs. The Heat have been one of the top offenses in the NBA to start the season. They rank third in scoring with 124.5 points per game, and they are eighth in shooting percentage at 49%. With Tyler Herro is out with an injury, the Heat have continued to move the ball around and find the open shooter. They rank third in the league with 29.5 assists per game. The Heat will be a difficult team to blow out if they continue to score at a high rate. 

Heat vs Clippers prediction: Miami +8 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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