NBA Picks

Expert NBA picks for the best of the NBA action throughout the 2023/24 season. We crunch the numbers, analyze the data, and provide free NBA expert picks every day. You can trust our expert NBA handicappers to find all the key betting trends and make reliable NBA picks you can trust.

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Point Spread Pick

IND Pacers +1.0IND Pacers @ MIL Bucks

Reasoning

Aside from Pascal Siakam, who had 36 points, none of the Indiana Pacers players showed up in the series opener against the Milwaukee Bucks. Indy shot just 39% from the field and a pedestrian 21% from downtown, looking nowhere near as good on offense as the team we saw in the regular season. I’m looking at Tyrese Haliburton specifically; he had just 9 points on Sunday on a mere 7 shot attempts. Look for him to be way more aggressive in Tuesday’s game, because during the regular season he averaged 27 points and 11 assists while shooting over 53% from the field. Without that type of production the Pacers are in danger of going down 2-0.

Damian Lillard picked up the slack for the absent Giannis Antetokounmpo in Game 1, exploding for 35 points in the first half. He didn’t score the rest of the way, but the Bucks were still able to cruise to a 15-point win. Khris Middleton also added 23 points and 10 rebounds — very encouraging for a player who has been bothered by injuries all year long. For Game 2 the Bucks just have to come out with the same mindset they had in Sunday’s contest — no easy baskets for the Pacers and give the ball to Lillard early and often.

Indiana won once at Fiserv Forum during the regular season, so it has shown to be capable of doing it. The sense of urgency is a lot greater in their locker room and the Pacers have to take advantage of Antetokounmpo’s absence; going down 2-0 would put them in a really difficult situation. I’m going to give them the benefit of the doubt and back a Pacers win in Game 2.

Pacers +1 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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Payout

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$38.52

Game Totals Pick

Over 220.5IND Pacers @ MIL Bucks

Reasoning

The projected total has plummeted from 230 points in Game 1 to just 220.5 for Game 2. The 2 teams came nowhere near that number on Sunday, combining to score just 203 points. I’m expecting the Pacers to pick things up a bit on Tuesday; it’s hard to imagine a team that finished 2nd only to Boston in offensive efficiency to struggle like that in back-to-back games. Assuming Haliburton picks it up, Indiana’s shooters will undoubtedly make more than the 8 threes they did on Sunday. In total, 8 of the last 11 meetings have resulted in the over cashing — while an average of more than 250 points has been scored in the last 10 meetings. I don’t think we’ll get anywhere close to that since it’s the postseason, but 221 points sounds doable for a game between 2 very potent offenses. I’ll back the points.

Over 220.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Sportsbook

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$38.18

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NBA Picks FAQs

How Do You Pick Against the Spread In The NBA?

Betting against the spread means to bet on the favourite to win by a certain amount of points or the underdog to win or lose by fewer than a certain amount.

Picks against the spread are popular amongst NBA bettors because they give more favorable odds for favorites and less risk when betting on an underdog.

NBA bets against the spread can be lucrative with some research, maybe the favorite has an injury, maybe the underdog has a strong match-up. Factors like these may not change who the winning team is but if you think it will change the margin of the victory NBA bets against the spread is where you can make it count.

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