American Conference Predictions 2026: Odds & Best Bets

The American might have dropped “Athletic” from its name last summer, but don’t be fooled, this conference is full of athleticism and often is a source of talent for power-conference schools with big pockets in this new era of college football. As with most lower-level conferences, plenty of American programs have overhauled staffs and rosters that have been picked through at least thrice; those with continuity both on the staff and on the field are in the minority. 

That said, we’ve had some pretty entertaining results over the last few years in this conference, as six of the last seven title games have included two ranked teams. Sure, Cincinnati, Houston and SMU have gone to the power level, but Tulane and North Texas carried that trend last year after it missed the mark in 2024. Not to mention, the Green Wave made the College Football Playoff last year with their win over North Texas in the American Conference Championship.

With six of its 14 teams priced between +400 and +700 at the top of the American’s oddsboard, this conference is wide open heading into 2026, and given the prices, pretty much every team is fair game. Let’s dig in and find a winner. 

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2026 American Conference Odds

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing. 

• UTSA Roadrunners +450
• Navy Midshipmen +470
• Memphis Tigers +650
• South Florida Bulls +650
• Army Black Knights +700
• Tulane Green Wave +700
• East Carolina Pirates +1000
• Florida Atlantic Owls +1700
• Tulsa Golden Hurricane +1900
• North Texas Mean Green +2200
• Temple Owls +2700
• Rice Owls +6500
• UAB Blazers +12500
• Charlotte 49ers +40000

2026 American Conference Favorites 

UTSA Roadrunners +450

One of the most tenured coaches in the conference, Jeff Traylor is back in San Antonio for his seventh season. While still a member of Conference USA, Traylor led the Roadrunners to consecutive conference titles in 2021 and 2022 before ditching the league for the American starting in 2023 – when they fell just short of a title-game appearance due to a loss against a ranked Tulane team in the final week of the season. Grading UTSA on that scale, the last two years have been disappointments. The Roadrunners finished both regular seasons 6-6, but at least they have three straight bowl wins under their belt. That counts for something still, right?

UTSA typically has a very strong offense, while lately, the defense has been lacking. In fact, after being a top-60 unit in opposing scoring from 2021-2023, the Roadrunners were 103rd in 2024 and 91st last year. They simply need to be better here, which starts with an influx of talent. Three of the top nine projected transfers have power-conference experience, but there are a few former blue-chip recruits in Collins Acheampong, Joel Rogers and Dylan Spencer not included in that bunch that were recruited by power-conference schools and should be in the mix for playing time this year. Furthermore, linebacker Elijah Baldwin (UTEP) had five tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks as a redshirt freshman last year, safety Xavier Walton (Angelo State) earned first-team all-conference awards and was named the Lone Star Conference Defensive Back of the Year and fellow safety Nate Robinson Jr. (Marist) earned a first-team All-Pioneer Football League selection and was a finalist for the Buck Buchanan Award – which is given to the best defensive player in the FCS. To be fully transparent, I’ve grown more excited for this unit as I’ve written this, especially with a longstanding coordinator like Jess Loepp leading the way. 

The Roadrunners’ strength is typically their offense, and with 64% of production back (27th-most nationally), there’s no reason to think there will be a drop-off this year. Starting quarterback Owen McCown is back, and while he had an inconsistent year in 2025, he’s thrown 55 touchdowns to 17 interceptions as the UTSA leader over the last two seasons. McCown will be behind a line that needs to play better, though it returns five pieces with starting experience, and he will have his backfield partner back in Will Henderson III, who had nearly 1,000 scrimmage yards and eight total touchdowns last year. Unfortunately, McCown won’t have leading receiver Devin McCuin this year, but he will have two of his top three receivers in AJ Wilson and David Amador II back, in addition to Texas Tech transfer TJ West. 

UTSA’s conference schedule lacks a true back-to-back road situation, as their games at Tulane and FAU are separated by a bye week. The Roadrunners will avoid Memphis, Army and East Carolina during the regular season, and they’ll get USF and Navy at home – with a mini-bye ahead of that game against the option offense of the Midshipmen. Going one step further, five of UTSA’s conference games are against first-year head coaches, while two more are against second-year coaches. 

Navy Midshipmen +470

Navy comes into this season with a 21-5 mark over the last two years, including an American Championship in 2024 and bowl wins over power-conference opponents at the end of each season. In coach Brian Newberry’s fourth year, they will look to replicate that success, but it won’t be easy now that starting quarterback Blake Horvath has moved on, as he ran for over 2,400 yards and 33 touchdowns while throwing for over 2,900 yards and 25 more touchdowns in his two seasons under center. Braxton Woodson is set to take over for Horvath, and we’ve seen him already in small doses after he put up 414 yards and six scores on the ground last season. However, he also has eight career fumbles in very limited playing time. Woodson should benefit from playing behind a line that has four returning pieces with starting experience, but this offense also lost Eli Heidenreich, Alex Tecza and Brandon Chatman, which was essentially the entire offense outside of Horvath. As such, the Midshipmen are 121st in returning offense production. 

On the other side, they rank 31st, bringing back 61% of their defensive production, including five of their top seven tacklers. That’s something to be excited about if you’re Navy, especially after they dropped out of the top 70 in scoring defense last year following consecutive seasons in the top 40. However, the best pieces on the defensive line are gone, including the leaders in tackles for loss and sacks from this unit, as well as their best run-stoppers. 

Navy’s schedule is pretty difficult for a team working in so many new pieces offensively. After an FCS tune-up in Week 1, they have back-to-back conference road games at FAU and UAB separated by a bye in Weeks 3 before a third straight road trip – this time out west to Air Force for a non-conference, service-academy matchup. Following a game at home against Tulsa, Navy will have to play at UTSA and against North Texas in consecutive weeks before their non-conference tilt with Notre Dame. They will then get Temple at home before a bye week ahead of a home game at Memphis and a road game at Charlotte to end the conference schedule, while the Army-Navy game is not a conference game this year. In short, the early schedule is brutal, but Navy might catch steam late. If you like the Midshipmen, I’d hold off for a potential better number live. 

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2026 American Conference Contenders

Memphis Tigers +650

Memphis has a new coach heading into this season, as Ryan Silverfield took the Arkansas job and was replaced by Charles Huff after a quick stop at University of Southern Mississippi. Not only is there a ton of turnover on the staff, but the roster is littered with it, too. Only 42% of production returns, which ranks 111th. Huff brought in more than 50 transfers to load his roster, but there isn’t a ton of proven FBS experience here outside of the players he brought from USM. That said, there’s plenty of former power-conference players, including quarterback Air Noland, running back Dallan Hayden and wide receiver Terrell Timmons Jr., looking to make a name for themselves with an opportunity for real playing time. Plus, Kevin Decker at offensive coordinator is a savvy hire after he steadily improved Old Dominion over a few seasons into a top-30 unit in 2025. 

Noland is in a quarterback battle with Division II standout Marcus Stokes, and the winner of that competition will play behind a line that projects to start five pieces with previous starting experience. It should work out, but with so many moving pieces, it’s hard to find confidence in this unit hitting the ground running. 

Defensively, there’s even less continuity; every current projected starter is a transfer. However, a good portion of these players have experience playing in other places. In fact, seven of the incoming defensive transfers played at least snaps at USM under Huff last year, while three other additions have power-conference experience. It’s going to be a work in progress on both sides of the ball, but they’re fortunate to get Charlotte and UAB to start their conference schedule ahead of a road trip to a similarly revamped Tulane squad with a new coach. ECU and Army at home is a huge plus for Memphis in late October, which should help gain momentum for back-to-back road games at USF and Navy before their season finale against Temple. Avoiding UTSA is huge, but at the end of the day, the Tigers will still play all of the other teams at the top of the odds board in the American. 

South Florida Bulls +650

Brian Hartline is finally getting his shot as a head coach. He’s known for his recruiting prowess, so USF is likely to have a loaded roster compared to the rest of the conference and Group of Six level so long as he’s in charge in Tampa. However, we don’t really know what he is as an organizational leader or a game-planner at the moment. He takes over a roster that returns just 41% of its production (113th) after its 9-4 finish last year, but he brought in the best transfer portal class in the Group of Six – just ahead of Memphis and James Madison. 

Michael Van Buren will seemingly get the first crack at quarterback after showing flashes at Mississippi State and LSU, and his receiving core will consist of as many as seven power-conference transfers, as well as returning senior Mudia Reuben (35/495/5). The running back group includes productive transfers from lower levels, as does the offensive line. The blocking unit will also have a couple power-conference additions next to returning guard Thomas Shrader. The biggest issue I have with the offense, aside from all the turnover, is Hartline’s choice of coordinator. To put it lightly, Tim Beck hasn’t been relevant for a while. 

Conversely, I like the defensive coordinator hire in Josh Aldridge, who has coaching experience in the SEC and was a strong leader of ECU’s defense in 2025. For what it’s worth, the Pirates were top-three in the league in scoring defense and total defense, while they were one of the premier defenses in the country in holding opponents out of the end zone. At Aldridge’s disposal will be a group of transfers that makes up almost an entire starting defense worth of power-conference talent. There isn’t a ton of proven FBS production on this unit, but given what he got out of ECU last year, I like Aldridge’s chances of getting this unit to play up to its potential before season’s end.

USF was in the College Football Playoff picture for much of the season last year, so a target is on their back, regardless of who is coaching or playing. That means the Bulls are going to get everyone’s best effort every single week, which makes an already difficult conference schedule even harder. While they avoid Navy, two of their first three conference games are on the road against Army and UTSA, and they have to play East Carolina, Memphis, FAU and Tulane consecutively to end the year – when all those opponents figure to be hitting their stride. 

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Army Black Nights +700

Continuity is the theme for Army ahead of the 2026 season, at least on the staff and offense. Jeff Monken enters his 13th season in West Point with Cody Worley in his third as offensive coordinator, looking to improve after dropping to 11th in the American in scoring (22.8 per conference game) and 12th in total offense. With 67% of production back (18th nationally), Army should improve from their 2025 marks, especially with quarterback Cale Hellums and four starting offensive linemen back, though they’ll have to replace all of their top rushers. In fact, the projected top running backs on the roster had fewer than 60 combined yards last year. 

There is very little continuity on the defensive side, where only 33% of production returns (127th nationally). Three of the top linebackers in Andon Thomas, Kalib Fortner and Eric Ford have all moved on, while five of the top six defensive backs are gone, too. Defensive lineman Jack Bousum, who tied for the lead in sacks with Ford, returns to lead a defensive line that lacks much production behind him.

The Black Knights will avoid the two favorites in conference play, as their game with Navy won’t be part of the league schedule. Meanwhile, they will get South Florida at home in Week 2, potentially before the Bulls have figured things out, and will benefit from getting Tulane and FAU early at home, too. Their first road game will be at Temple following a bye week, while their most challenging part of the schedule is back-to-back road games at Tulsa and Memphis at the end of October. 

Tulane Green Wave +700

Under Willie Fritz, Tulane reached their best mark as a program since their undefeated season in 1998 under Tommy Bowden, going 23-5 in 2022 and 2023 combined while being nationally ranked and appearing in consecutive conference championship games, winning one over UCF in 2022. Fritz moved on to Houston in 2024 and was replaced by Jon Sumrall, who went 20-8 in his two seasons in New Orleans – including more national rankings and a College Football Playoff berth in 2025 – before bolting for the University of Florida. I would love to say the new hire of Will Hall is one I trust to continue the line of excellent Tulane coaches, but I’m not there. While he does have experience within the Tulane program – he was the offense coordinator in 2019 and 2020 – his head coaching résumé is lacking at the Division I level. In fact, his three seasons at Southern Miss resulted in a 14-30 overall record, which is a far cry from the success he had leading West Alabama and West Georgia in Division II prior to his original tenure at Tulane.

Hall will have a roster that has just 40% of its talent returning, which ranks 117th nationally. The offense is particularly lacking, returning only 28% of its production (127th), and to make matters worse, stud sophomore running back Jamauri McClure picked up an injury in camp and is questionable for the season opener. With FSU transfer Jaylin Lucas and a veteran in Maurice Turner behind McClure, the Green Wave are strong at running back, but only one real contributor on the offensive line returns, and neither transfer has much FBS experience. 

Out wide, the Wave will have to replace three of their top four pass-catchers, including the team leader in yards and touchdowns in Shazz Preston. Their replacements are largely players that didn’t play much in the power ranks, so returners Anthony Brown-Stephens and Zycarl Lewis Jr. will probably get a good bit of targets. Who’s going to be throwing to them? Who knows, as it seems there’s a quarterback battle between Ball State transfer Kadin Semonza, who was on the team but didn’t play last year, and new Houston transfer Zeon Chriss-Gremillion. Neither offer a ton of confidence, but Semonza showed some flashes at Ball State.

There are some studs returning on the defensive side, including leading tackler Jack Tchienchou, top linebacker Chris Rodgers and defensive back Kevin Adams III, but the Green Wave will have to replace their top six in sacks and top four in tackles for loss, most of which comes from the defensive line, and hardly any of those replacements are proven. 

Tulane’s conference schedule starts with three of the top teams in the American, as the Green Wave will have to play Army, Memphis and UTSA consecutively before a manageable road trip to Charlotte. To end the season, they will have to play Tulsa, Rice, North Texas and USF. We aren’t quite sure what North Texas and USF will be, but there’s a chance both teams will have hit their stride by that point. If Tulane starts 0-3 in conference, it could end up being a long season for the Green Wave. 

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2026 American Conference Championship Best Bet: Florida Atlantic Owls +1700

Among the teams at the top of the American odds board, I like UTSA the most. After all, they are the favorite of the conference with a longstanding coach and a returning starting quarterback. However, I can’t pull the trigger given UTSA’s known issues of being unable to win consistently away from home. As such, I’m going to take a shot down the board in a conference going through quite a bit of change, whether it be on the staff, field or both. 

FAU is the antithesis of change in the American Conference ahead of the 2026 season. In fact, the Owls are the only team that retained their entire coaching staff and their starting quarterback. They return 64% of their overall production, which ranks top-20 nationally, including a top-35 mark on the offensive side and a top-15 mark defensively. 

Quarterback Caden Veltkamp was second in the conference in passing yards, second in big-time throws, and fifth in touchdowns last year, but he led the league in interceptions and turnover-worthy plays – which are areas he will have to improve. I like his chances of that this year, even if the offensive line is a work in progress, given the uptempo nature of this offense. He will have his 1,000-yard receiver back in Easton Meser, as well as 500-yard receiver Dominique Henry, with as many as five previous power-conference recruits competing for time after transferring in. Not to mention, his most productive running back returns in Kaden Shields-Dutton and will be joined by the highly productive Division II transfer, Leonard Farrow, who put up 1,400+ yards and 12 touchdowns while averaging 8.1 yards per attempt at Fairmont State. 

FAU’s defense was in the bottom-10 nationally last year, but their leading tackler and top five sack contributors return, as well as two of their top four in passes defended. The returning talent is supplemented by a transfer-portal class with highly productive FBS pieces like Joseph Sipp Jr. (11.5 TFL, seven sacks at Bowling Green in 2024) and Jay Crable (eight TFL, six sacks at Ohio in 2025), in addition to former power-conference athletes and more highly productive pieces from the lower ranks.

The schedule is tough, but I believe that’s priced into the number, and I would argue it’s not as tough as it originally seems once you dive a bit deeper. FAU will get Navy in Week 2 when the Midshipmen are still figuring things out offensively, and that game is at home. Also at home will be their games against Rice, UTSA, and South Florida. Meanwhile, they avoid Memphis and Tulane and get Army after a bye week. That leaves the road games at UNT, Tulsa and ECU, two of which come in the final three weeks of the season. That said, UNT and ECU are going through complete roster overhauls, so who knows what those teams will look like in November. I’ll side with the team we know most about at a very appealing number.  

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2026 American Conference Prop Bet: UTSA Roadrunners Over 5.5 Conference Wins (+105)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to +100. 

The Roadrunners have this thing where they don’t play up to expectations away from the Alamo Dome, which is really holding me back from betting them to win the conference. That said, their conference schedule is fairly manageable when you consider they avoid ECU, Memphis and Army and get USF, Navy, UNT and Tulsa at home, while two of their road games are at Rice and UAB. It’s the consecutive road games at Tulane and Florida Atlantic that give me pause, even in a down year for the Green Wave. I may find myself adding UTSA to the futures list at some point due to their returning offensive talent and influx of playing experience on the defensive side, but for now, let’s stick with this win total. 

2026 American Conference Prop Bet: Tulane Green Wave Under 6.5 Total Wins (+140)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to +125. 

I’m fully expecting a down year from the Green Wave. I’m not a fan of the coaching hire, and I question the offensive line and quarterback positions, along with the supporting cast on defense. Not to mention, their early-season schedule is unforgiving, and I wouldn’t be surprised if this new-look Tulane squad lost five of their first six games.