College Football Week 1 Best Bets: Friday, September 4
Saturday’s College Football Week 1 slate can’t get here soon enough, but thankfully we had games last night and have more tonight to hold us over to the main course. Shoutout to Caleb, who already covered you yesterday with his CFB best bets, comfortably going 2-0 as he picked UMass +29.5 over Rutgers, with the Minutemen actually winning outright, while Colorado vs Georgia Tech comfortably went Under 51.5 after finishing 14-13. I'm going to look to build on that momentum and tackle today's card to highlight my favorite plays from the six-game slate.
Let’s get into the action and dive into my CFB best bets for Friday, while you can also find all of our expert CFB picks for this weekend’s action and every FBS game throughout the year.
CFB Best Bet: Michigan State Spartans 1H -6.5 over Toledo Rockets (-115)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to -7 (-110).
Both programs experienced leadership changes in the offseason. One team hired a former power-conference coach to replace the one they fired, while the other team brought in an FCS coach who has zero FBS experience. That’s not to say new Toledo skipper Mike Jacobs isn’t a good football coach; he’s 94-23 with five Coach of the Year Awards after all, despite being at lower levels. Meanwhile, Michigan State replaced Jonathan Smith and his 9-15 record with former Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald, who has been anxious to return to the sidelines since his controversial firing a couple of years ago.
As you would expect, both teams are loaded with transfers. However, like the coaching comparison, most of Michigan State’s incoming transfers that are projected to start are previous power-conference contributors, power-conference recruits or highly-productive non-power studs. Toledo, on the other hand, is essentially a glorified Mercer roster from the FCS ranks, as that is where Jacobs was prior to this current role. A vast majority of Toledo’s portal class has minimal to no FBS experience, let alone previous power-conference experience to adequately oppose Sparty.
Don’t take this the wrong way, Toledo still has some dudes. Defensive end Andrew Zock was highly productive at Mercer with 11.5 sacks, while his teammate, running back CJ Miller, put up more than 1,000 scrimmage yards and accounted for 17 total touchdowns. However, will that translate on the road against a Big Ten team, even if said team is near the bottom of the conference currently? I’d imagine it’s going to be hard for Miller to find some space considering the size advantage Sparty has in the trenches, and the same can be said on the opposite side with Zock finding space to get into Michigan State’s backfield.
Ultimately, even with so many moving pieces in East Lansing, I expect a shock factor early for Toledo -- and for Sparty to bully their way to at least a one-score lead at the intermission. For what it’s worth, I also like them to cover the full-game number at -10 or better.
For a play on the total, find our Toledo vs Michigan State prediction
CFB Best Bet: USC Trojans -21.5 over Fresno State Bulldogs (-108)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM at the time of publishing. Playable to -23 (-110).
USC was absolutely dominating San Jose State last week, going into halftime with a 28-0 lead. The Trojans even went into the fourth quarter with a 35-3 lead before the Spartans put 23 on the board in the final period to make the game respectable, cashing an over for us in the process against the Trojan backups. Lincoln Riley addressed the fourth quarter in the post-game press conference, saying that it was not up to standard and that multiple depth pieces that were given the opportunity to play did not live up to expectations. As such, I expect a better effort for four full quarters on Friday night.
USC playing on a short week against a slow-paced, run-heavy offense is less than ideal when laying this many points, but the talent gap and experience level are stark in this matchup. Fresno State, now part of the new-look Pac-12 that replaces the version of which USC was once part, put together a very respectable 9-4 record last season, including a win over Miami (OH) in the Arizona Bowl. However, a good chunk of the high-level production from this roster has departed. The Bulldogs will have their top two rushers back, as well as two of their top three pass-catchers, but what else?
Fresno lost a veteran in E.J. Warner at quarterback and replaced him with Jayden Mandal, who has just nine collegiate pass attempts with two interceptions, and their line lost its center, which was also the best player of the bunch, as well as its second-best pass-blocker. In fact, only two starters return on the line – both tackles – while the interior is made up of a combination of sophomores and freshmen with minimal to no experience.
Defensively, it feels worse. Fresno lost its leader in snaps and one of their best coverage pieces in Al’zillion Hamilton, while their leader in tackles and starting linebacker Jadon Pearson has also moved on. The secondary returns just five of its top 14 interceptions from a season ago, and the Bulldogs’ leader in sacks and tackles for loss is also gone. Incoming transfer Dylan Hampsten offers some upside after 13 tackles for loss and eight sacks in the FCS last year, but how will that carry over against this USC offensive line?
With all the key production lost, the Bulldogs feel a little overvalued at this current number. Based on my power ratings, USC should be -23.5 or -24 here.
Check out our Fresno State vs USC prediction
CFB Predictions for Friday, September 4
If you're looking for more college football predictions today, check out the rest of our picks for Friday's games:
