College Football Week 3 Best Bets: Friday, September 18
The work week is rolling right along, which means it’s almost time for Week 3 college football action. We have a massive slate this weekend, Saturday specifically, but before we get to the main course, we have a three-game appetizer on Friday night, including an ACC matchup and a Big 12 matchup. Let's get into my top college football pick for Friday’s action, and don’t forget our CFB picks and CFB best bets ahead of Saturday’s loaded card.
CFB Friday Best Bet: Miami Hurricanes -20.5 over Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-112)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM at the time of publishing. Playable to -21 (-115).
Laying three touchdowns in a conference game is never comfortable, let alone on the road, but when it’s a talent discrepancy as wide as Miami vs Wake Forest, the line starts to make sense. The national runners-up have started the season in potent fashion, tallying 122 points in two games while surrendering just 13. Forty-five of those Miami points came on the road at another conference opponent in Stanford. So, Miami has already “been there, done that” when it comes to living up to expectations and taking care of an inferior opponent as an expensive favorite – only this time, there won’t be cross-country travel involved.
In a spot like this, lookaheads and hangovers become a concern. However, I don’t see either situation here. The ‘Canes just hung 77 on Florida A&M, and they play Central Michigan at home next week. It’s not until after that game that Miami will see Clemson, Florida State and then Pitt.
The Demon Deacons are 2-0, as they should be with games against Akron and Purdue under their belt. However, it wasn’t all that convincing for Wake last week. They needed double overtime to beat Purdue, who converted half of their 14 third-down attempts and controlled the game clock. Now, Wake will have to play arguably the best offense in the country.
Again, having played against Akron and Purdue, Wake Forest has allowed a score in 100% of opposing red-zone trips and currently ranks 126th in defensive success outside of garbage time, as well as 136 in standard downs rate allowed. In other words, Wake’s opponents have scored at will and constantly have been ahead of the chains thus far. That’s bad news against Miami, who had put up over 700 yards per game through their first two weeks of the season. To make matters worse, Wake Forest has already missed 37 tackles this season according to PFF, which is music to the ears of Miami running back Mark Fletcher Jr., who had the 12th-most missed tackles forced in the country last year.
I suppose we could see one of those classic Mario Cristobal letdown performances here, but the talent gap is too wide for my money. I don’t see how this Wake defense will hold up.
Get our full Miami vs Wake Forest prediction for this ACC showdown
