College Football Week 5 Opening Lines, Odds & Best Bets: Continue Fading the Aztecs

With Week 5 quickly approaching, we’re about one month into the college football season, and things are starting to take shape. Conference play is officially underway, so we’re starting to see who the contenders and pretenders are, but with two months still to play, much is still to be decided. 

Ahead of the Week 5 action, it’s time to take a look at the early lines and odds for the upcoming college football slate and cap it off with a best bet after getting back into the win column last week with Florida. Don’t forget to check back throughout the week for our CFB picks on every FBS game for Week 5 and beyond.

2026 College Football Week 5 Opening Lines and Odds

Odds courtesy of bet365 and available at the time of publishing.

Thursday, October 1

• New Mexico State -2.5 (-105) vs Western Kentucky; Total 55.5 (Under -115)
• Tulsa -1.5 (-110) vs North Texas; Total 57.5 (-110)

Friday, October 2

• Liberty -7 (-110) @ Delaware; Total 49.5 (-110)
• Virginia Tech -3.5 (-105) vs Pitt; Total 53.5 (-110)
• Penn State -2.5 (-115) @ Northwestern; Total 45.5 (-110)

Saturday, October 3

• Alabama -5.5 (-115) @ Mississippi State; Total 59.5 (-110)
• SMU -20.5 (-110) vs Boston College; Total 56.5 (Over -115)
• Michigan -5.5 (-115) @ Minnesota; Total 43.5 (-110)
• Air Force -3.5 (-105) vs Navy; Total 45.5 (Over -115)
• Notre Dame -21.5 (+100) @ North Carolina; Total 47.5 (-110)
• Wake Forest -12.5 (-115) vs Stanford; Total 53.5 (Over -115)
• Syracuse -6.5 (-105) @ UConn; Total 51.5 (Over -115)
• Houston -12.5 (-110) vs UCF; Total 51.5 (Under -115)
• Iowa State -3.5 (-105) vs West Virginia; Total 52.5 (-110)
• Wisconsin -10.5 (-105) vs Michigan State; Total 43.5 (-110)
• Georgia -24.5 (-110) vs Vanderbilt; Total 51.5 (Over -115)
• Tennessee -7.5 (-105) vs Auburn; Total 54.5 (-110)
• UNLV -2.5 (-110) vs Cal; Total 53.5 (-110)
• Florida -4.5 (-115) @ Missouri; Total 56.5 (-110)
• Louisville -5.5 (-110) @ NC State; Total 58.5 (Over -115)
• Ohio State -13.5 (-115) @ Iowa; Total 45.5 (-110)
• Virginia -2.5 (-115) @ Florida State; Total 51.5 (-110)
• South Carolina -2.5 (-115) vs Kentucky; Total 53.5 (-110)
• Illinois -9.5 (-120) vs Purdue; Total 60.5 (-110)
• Oregon State -5.5 (-105) @ Colorado State; Total 61.5 (-110)
• Texas A&M -14.5 (-105) vs Arkansas; Total 51.5 (-110)
• BYU -6.5 (-110) @ TCU; Total 48.5 (-110)
• Miami -16.5 (-115) @ Clemson; Total 49.5 (Under -115)
• South Florida -5.5 (-115) vs Temple; Total 51.5 (-110)
• Texas Tech -13.5 (-110) @ Colorado; Total 50.5 (-110)
• USC -9.5 (-105) vs Washington; Total 57.5 (Over -115)
• Washington State -2.5 (-110) vs Fresno State; Total 46.5 (-110)
• Arizona State -4.5 (+100) vs Baylor; Total 50.5 (-115)
• Texas State -4.5 (-110) @ San Diego State; Total 58.5 (-110)
• Arizona -7.5 (-105) vs Cincinnati; Total 54.5 (Over -115)
• Hawaii -2.5 (-115) vs San Jose State; Total 51.5 (-110)

College football Week 5 best bet: Texas State Bobcats -4 over San Diego State Aztecs (-110) 

Odds courtesy of Fanatics Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to -6. 

The numbers may not indicate Texas State is “of value” this week, but the eye test sure would, as San Diego State is in a state of disarray right now. The Aztecs have only one win this season, and that came against an FCS team. They are riding a three-game losing streak coming into this contest after just recording fewer than 17 points for the third straight week. Granted, the cross-country trip to play Toledo at noon ET wasn’t exactly ideal, nor was the fact that two of San Diego State’s top running backs left that game due to injury. Also, one of their depth pieces left the team early last week, so that group will potentially be down three pieces come Saturday. 

It’s been a rough go for starting quarterback Jayden Denegal, who may have a short leash sooner rather than later. He has five picks and five turnover-worthy plays thus far, completing just 56.6% of his passes, and has suffered from zero drops – so his inefficiency is not due to his pass-catchers. Not to mention, he’s held the ball way too long, sitting outside the top 100 in sack rate per PFF. 

As a whole, San Diego State ranks 106th in scoring, 124th in total offense, 121st in third-down conversion rate and 123rd in yards per play. The advanced metrics make it look even worse, as the Aztecs are 130th in PPA per play, 137th in success rate, dead last in standard downs rate and 135th in standard downs PPA. Further, they’re 120th in plays of at least 20 yards, and they have just 14 red-zone trips through four games. It doesn’t get much better on the other side, either. The Aztecs defense ranks 89th in yards per play, 95th in PPA per play, 107th in success rate, 130th in line yards allowed, 137th in stuff rate, dead last in havoc generated, 135th in non-garbage-time scoring opportunities, and 127th in standard downs rate allowed. 

I just don’t see how San Diego State can limit or score with Texas State. The Bobcats have been one of the most efficient offenses in the country, sitting top-40 in scoring and top-10 in total offense. They also rank 30th or better nationally in third-down conversion rate, yards per play, PPA per play, success rate, standard downs rate and havoc allowed. Via the arm of Brad Jackson, Texas State has been very good through the air, as they are first nationally in passing downs PPA, third in PPA per pass, ninth in passing success rate and 13th in passing explosiveness outside of garbage time. He’s also taken great care of the ball over the last two weeks after looking shaky against Texas and then suffering from a bit of bad luck against UTSA. 

The Bobcats scored more points in their last FBS game than San Diego State has scored in their last three combined. Adding their offensive struggles to the running back injuries and the trip back from Toledo, it’s hard to see this one being competitive.

Keep an eye on our college football predictions this week, with more than 50 games covered!