College Football Week 4 Player Props: Best Bets & Picks

Temperatures have dropped, leaves are starting to turn colors and the weekend is here. There’s nothing quite like a college football Saturday once autumn arrives, and that is exactly what we will have for a loaded Week 4 card that includes six ranked matchups like Ole Miss vs Florida and Iowa vs Michigan, as well as multiple key Group of Six contests like Boise State vs Western Michigan and Hawaii vs Wyoming. 

Riding a 7-2 college football player-prop run after a 3-0 sweep in Week 3, I’m eager for the Week 4 card. Here are my favorite prop bets for the loaded Saturday slate, while you can catch our CFB picks for tips and analysis on every FBS game throughout the year. 

Get college football expert Caleb Wilfinger's CFB best bets for Week 4 after starting the season 11-3!

CFB Week 4 player prop: Brandon Inniss (OSU) Over 26.5 receiving yards (-115)

Odds courtesy of Bet365 Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to 29.5.

This number is simply too low for Ohio State’s slot receiver. The Buckeyes might be hefty favorites without the need to pass the rock much, but all it takes is one or two plays to hit this number.

Inniss leads the talented OSU wide receiver room with eight receptions on eight targets out of the slot, accumulating 133 yards on those receptions for an average of 16.6 yards each. Furthermore, he has made at least one 15-yard catch in every game thus far. He draws an extremely favorable matchup against an Illinois defense that allowed 61 combined yards out of the slot against UAB, surrendered 57 yards to Duke’s slot WR Jonah Burton on three receptions and even gave up 59 combined slot yards to FCS Southern Illinois last week. Look for Inniss to make a couple big plays early and potentially surpass this number before halftime.

Get our full Illinois vs Ohio State prediction

CFB Week 4 player prop: Jaden Baugh (UF) Over 20.5 rushing attempts (-115)

Odds courtesy of Bet365 Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to 21.5.

Jaden Baugh is quickly becoming a potential first-round pick in the upcoming NFL Draft, and we saw a bit of what he can do in big games last week when he carried the ball 26 times for 162 yards on the road at Auburn. He now has 458 yards on 54 combined attempts after 14 carries each in Week 1 and Week 2 without touching the ball a single time in the fourth quarter in either of those games.

Like last week, this week projects to be a much closer game for the Gators than their first two. As such, I naturally expect Baugh’s workload to look more like last week’s than the first two weeks. It only helps from a game-script perspective that Florida is currently a home favorite, hosting Ole Miss in what is one of the biggest hangover spots of the last few years after the Rebels beat their former coach at home last week with everyone watching.

Under offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner, the Gators are 17th in rush rate outside of garbage time, as well as top 25 in standard downs rate and standard downs PPA. In other words, they run a lot and they stay ahead of the sticks, which is critical for Baugh’s workload. Conversely, Ole Miss ranks 91st in standard downs rate and 129th in standard downs PPA allowed, and they haven’t been particularly efficient against the run -- sitting outside the top 80 in PPA per rush and rush success allowed. 

CFB Week 4 player prop: Keelon Russell (ALA) longest rush over 14.5 yards (-115)

Odds courtesy of Bet365 Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -135. 

South Carolina displayed some weaknesses defensively against Kamario Taylor and the Mississippi State Bulldogs last week, and dating back to last year, the Gamecocks have had issues with quick, athletic quarterbacks from time to time. Keelon Russell is just that, as he has already recorded multiple runs of greater than 20 yards -- including a touchdown run of more than 50. He’s surpassed this number in every game this season, while South Carolina allowed both FBS quarterbacks they faced to scamper for at least one 15-yard rush. 

Coming into this week, Russell has seven rushes of at least 10 yards -- which puts him in a tie for 15th nationally among non-running backs. Meanwhile, South Carolina let Taylor loose for at least 15 yards twice last week. This is a good way to attack Russell’s rushing production without dealing with negative yardage from potential sacks and kneel-downs. 

Now check out our college football Week 4 betting guide for more bets, parlays and props ahead the weekend action