College Football Parlay Picks: Saturday, September 26

September 22 has come and gone, while temperatures have finally started to drop. Fall is here, which should make the vibes of college football Week 4 that much better. We already have six ranked matchups to enjoy, including Texas vs Tennessee and Oregon vs USC, as well as a handful of Group of Six matchups like Boise State vs Western Michigan and New Mexico vs New Mexico State that provide some intrigue.

Ahead of arguably the biggest slate of college football to date, it’s time to break down my weekly CFB parlay, consisting of my favorite plays of the week at very juicy odds of +1243, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. For more tips and information, get our CFB picks for every FBS game this year, as well as our CFB best bets for our most confident selections.

Toledo ML (-150)

Iowa State +8.5 (-115)

West Virginia ML (-126)

Missouri +7.5 (-148)

Air Force ML (-230)

Week 4 CFB Parlay odds: +1243

CFB Parlay Pick: Toledo Rockets ML over San Diego State Aztecs (-150)

Toledo will remain home for the third straight week after narrowly escaping last week with a 49-48 win over Temple in a double-overtime instant classic. You could argue this might be a hangover spot after storming back from a 42-28 deficit late in the game, but I would argue it’s an even worse spot for the Aztecs. 

San Diego State has yet to leave the state of California; their lone road game was at UCLA, while they hosted Portland State and James Madison. With a noon ET kickoff, this game will be played at 9:00 AM on the Aztec body clock, which is not something they are used to. Moreover, this game comes on the heels of consecutive matchups with UCLA and JMU and immediately before conference play starts next week in the rebranded PAC-12. 

I can’t imagine the foreign, early start is going to help the Aztecs improve their offensive ineptitude showcased thus far. For reference, they are 121st in yards per play, 127th in PPA per play, 134th in success rate and outside the top 100 in points per scoring opportunity and third-down conversion rate. Defensively, they don’t generate much havoc, and they are outside the top 80 in PPA per pass and passing success rate allowed, which Toledo should be able to exploit via what’s been an impressive start to the year for QB John Alan Richter. 

Get college football expert Caleb Wilfinger's CFB best bets for Week 4 after starting the season 11-3!

CFB Parlay Pick: Iowa State Cyclones +8.5 over Utah Utes (-115)

The Utes have looked very good thus far, and the power ratings suggest this game should be closer to a double-digit spread than it is now, but I’m not so sure of that. They haven’t really beaten anyone of significance, nor have they played on the road yet. Unfortunately for them, even with a regime change, Ames isn’t an easy place to play. 

Jimmy Rogers is in his first season as Iowa State’s head coach, and he’s already up to his old tricks. Two weeks ago, his team went into Iowa City as two-score underdogs and nearly won the game outright, continuing the trend of his teams vastly outperforming market expectations in big games. Rogers was Washington State’s coach last year, and if you remember, the Cougars went across the country for three road games and narrowly lost those games by nine combined points against Ole Miss, Virginia and James Madison, despite catching anywhere from 14.5 to 34 points. 

Now catching more than a touchdown at home against a Utah team that lost its long-standing head coach and its entire offensive line in the offseason, including multiple first-round picks, this feels like a perfect spot to grab the points with the Cyclones in buy-low fashion while selling high on Utah. ISU might even have a bit more win equity here than oddsmakers are giving them credit for. 

CFB Parlay Pick: West Virginia Mountaineers ML over Oklahoma State Cowboys (-126)

Oklahoma State has arguably the most surprising win of the season after beating Oregon as nearly four-touchdown home underdogs, but I am pumping the brakes on the Pokes this week. Traveling to Morgantown for a night game in front of the Mountaineer faithful is no easy feat, especially when the ‘Neers are undefeated and off a win as a double-digit ‘dog against the bordering Virginia Cavaliers. 

Eric Morris and Drew Mestemaker have injected some life into Stillwater, which has been greatly missed for a couple years now. However, we can’t forget about the Week 1 stinker on the road against Tulsa. Sure, it was the first game under Morris’ tenure, but there’s not much good to take away from four turnovers, 5-of-16 on third downs and just 10 points against a Group of Six opponent when you’re a Big 12 program. Obviously, the win over the Ducks was huge, but that was at home against an Oregon squad that left us asking questions about the longevity of coach Dan Lanning after two weeks, while there are rumors that the Ducks were tipping plays. 

Mestemaker threw two picks and had three turnover-worthy plays against Tulsa, which concerns me after he looked so shaky on the road against Tulane and in the bowl game against San Diego State to end the season last year. Also concerning is the fact that the Pokes are 108th in standard downs PPA and 112th in both PPA per rush and third-down conversion rate. When you combine those marks with a turnover margin that ranks 130th, it’s hard to trust OK State to move the ball consistently. Winning the time-of-possession battle is crucial to beating West Virginia, as the Mountaineers have a filthy rushing attack with Cam Cook, but I don't see the Cowboys being able to accomplish that under the lights of Morgantown on Saturday night.

Here's our Oklahoma State vs West Virginia prediction for this Big 12 battle

CFB Parlay Pick: Missouri Tigers +7.5 alternate spread over Mississippi State Bulldogs (-148)

This is it; this is where we sell high on the Mississippi State Bulldogs. After winning at Minnesota and South Carolina as road underdogs in consecutive weeks, Mississippi State has seen a rise in rankings and market value, as this line has stretched out to 6.5 in some places. If I were placing a single bet, I would take Missouri at that number, but being one of the legs of our parlay, we can afford to pay a little extra juice to get an affordable 7.5 in our pocket without affecting the payout in dramatic fashion. That’s the route I’m going here. 

Don’t get me wrong, Kamario Taylor and the Bulldogs have been electric offensively. Now, though, they are playing with expectations in front of their home crowd, plus they have Alabama on deck -- also at home. This feels like a classic sandwich spot after a massive come-from-behind, conference-opening win in South Carolina last week, which is a dangerous place to be against the seasoned Eli Drinkwitz and a Missouri defense that sits top-15 in PPA per play, success rate, havoc generated and yards per play. 

Check out our Missouri vs Mississippi State prediction for a pick on the total of this SEC showdown



CFB Parlay Pick: Air Force Falcons ML over Nevada Wolf Pack (-230)

Going up against a service academy that benefits from an extra week of preparation, Nevada is going to have to be able to stop the run if they want to cover, much less win this game outright. However, I have my concerns with this Wolf Pack run defense – a unit that sits outside the top 70 in a vast majority of advanced metrics including stuff rate, line yards allowed, havoc generated, standard downs PPA allowed and rushing success rate allowed. 

Unfortunately for the home side, Nevada’s offense doesn’t put together many extended drives -- nor does it convert consistently in scoring opportunities. To make matters worse, the Pack have a -5 turnover margin through three games, which is a massive concern against a ball-control offense like Air Force. 

If the Wolf Pack can’t stop the run and can’t keep the Falcons off the field, their only option is to score consistently with Air Force, which isn’t something we should have much confidence in either. Nevada is 103rd in PPA per play and 95th in success rate despite a strength of schedule that ranks 118th by Sagarin, while starting sophomore quarterback Carter Jones has 10 interceptions and 14 turnover-worthy plays in his young collegiate career that includes fewer than 250 dropbacks.

Read our full Air Force vs Nevada prediction

College football Week 4 Picks

Check out our expert college football predictions for the biggest games in Week 4 below:

• Texas vs Tennessee prediction
• Ole Miss vs Florida prediction
• Wake Forest vs Louisville prediction
• Colorado vs Baylor prediction
• Illinois vs Ohio State prediction
• Notre Dame vs Purdue prediction
• Iowa vs Michigan prediction
• Oklahoma vs Georgia prediction
• New Mexico vs New Mexico State prediction
• Utah vs Iowa State prediction
• Vanderbilt vs Auburn prediction
• Wisconsin vs Penn State prediction
• Central Michigan vs Miami prediction
• South Carolina vs Alabama prediction
• Texas A&M vs LSU prediction
• Oregon vs USC prediction
• Minnesota vs Washington prediction