College Football Week 6 Best Bets: Friday, October 9

After a loaded midweek slate full of Group-of-Six action, the college football weekend kicks off Friday night with a five-pack of FBS games from the east coast all the way out west. Kicking off the night will be a standalone ACC showdown between Florida State and Louisville, as the Cardinals are in the midst of a two-game losing streak, while the Seminoles have won as many games in a row. Then, we’ll get a four-pack of west-coast matchups, ranging from Iowa vs Washington to Washington State vs Utah State and Iowa State vs BYU. 

Ahead of a fun abbreviated card, I have a CFB best bet to share for the Week 6 Friday slate. Let’s get into the analysis, and don’t forget about the rest of our CFB picks for tips and analysis on the entire Week 6 card and every FBS game this season. 

CFB Week 6 Friday best bet: Florida State Seminoles vs Louisville Cardinals Over 59 (-110)

Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to 60.5 (-110).

I like this matchup to return to that high-scoring flare that we used to see from these former ACC Atlantic Division rivals under the lights on Friday night. The Seminoles have actually looked somewhat capable on offense lately, and while I’m hesitant to fully trust them, it’s hard to ignore a top-40 mark in yards per play, PPA per play and points per scoring opportunity outside of garbage time. They’ve scored at least 34 points in three straight games, and one of those was a 36-point outing in Tuscaloosa against Alabama – which is the highest point total the Tide have surrendered thus far. That offensive momentum continued at home against Virginia last week, as the ‘Noles scored 38 points and tallied 464 total yards against what is usually a good defensive program in Virginia. FSU was phenomenal on the ground in that contest, averaging more than six yards per carry while scoring five rushing touchdowns and recording 281 rushing yards. 

Florida State’s rushing success has been a thing this year, as has their red-zone success; they’re 28th in rush rate, 7th in PPA per rush, 15th in rush explosiveness and top-30 in both stuff rate allowed and line yards, while they have scored on every red-zone possession with 17 of the 21 attempts going for touchdowns. The ‘Noles have a mobile quarterback in Ashton Daniels, who has played well – which is hard for me to admit as someone that typically likes to bet against him – and his backfield mates have been reliable. Running back Ousmane Kromah is the best-graded running back in the ACC per PFF and sits second in the conference in missed tackles forced. On the other side, Louisville has struggled to consistently stop the run, sitting outside the top 90 in rush yards allowed per game and outside the top 60 in yards per attempt. 

Ohio State transfer Lincoln Kienholz has played extremely well in his first full year as a starter, accounting for 15 total touchdowns with nearly 1,400 yards through the air and 158 rushing yards. PFF grades him as a top-five passer in the conference thus far, and he’s been solid under pressure, which is notable as a first-year starter without even incorporating the fact that he learned a new system in the offseason. He should continue to cook through the air in this matchup, as the Seminoles are 100th or worse in PPA per pass, passing success rate and passing explosiveness allowed outside of garbage time (CollegeFootballData). Florida State’s secondary can be pretty leaky, and Kienholz leads the ACC in yards on deep passes while sitting top-three in completion percentage and carrying zero turnover-worthy plays on those passes of at least 20 yards.

For more Friday action, check out my Week 6 early best bet on a side in the Hawkeyes-Huskies Big Ten matchup