College Football Week 5 Best Bets: Saturday, October 3

What a weekend we have in store across the college football landscape. Not only do we have a few ranked matchups like Alabama vs Mississippi State, Ohio State vs Iowa and Florida vs Missouri, but multiple ranked teams will hit the road to play unranked opponents – which is always fun – while a few Group of Six matchups catch my eye like Navy vs Air Force and Marshall vs James Madison. 

Ahead of Saturday’s massive Week 5 slate, I’ve compiled my three favorite bets to get you set for the action. Let’s dive right in, but don’t forget our CFB picks for more analysis on over 50 games this weekend or our CFB best bets after our experts went 8-0 on their top selections last Saturday.

CFB Week 5 Best Bet: Air Force Falcons -3 over Navy Midshipmen (-112)

Odds courtesy of BetMGM at the time of publishing. Playable to -4 (-110).

I’ve bet against Navy in both of their FBS matchups thus far, and I am continuing that trend this week when they travel across the country to play their second consecutive road game in as many weeks, this time to play a fellow service academy in Air Force. The Falcons will have revenge on their minds when they host the Midshipmen, as they barely fell short last year in Annapolis as a +13.5 underdog, 34-31. Navy gained over 500 yards in that game, but it was mostly all on the backs of QB Blake Horvath and RB Eli Heidenreich, neither of whom is still with the program. 

After missing the last game, new Navy QB Braxton Woodson is questionable to play this week, though I would think he’s going to at least give it a go after injuring his ankle a few weeks ago. If he goes, it should be an upgrade over Jackson Gutierrez, but I still give Air Force a decent edge in the quarterback department with Liam Szarka, who was 11-of-19 for 212 yards and two passing touchdowns against this defense last year, while he added 152 rushing yards and two more scores on 25 attempts – an average of 6.1 yards per carry. Look for another big performance from him again this weekend; the Middies have really struggled on the defensive side, which is less than ideal against an offense that’s top-40 in efficiency and has scored over 30 points in all three games. The cross-country travel and the fact that this is Navy’s third straight road game doesn’t help, either. 

Looking for more college football action? Get our CFB Week 5 touchdown picks and best bets, with our expert on an 8-4 run!

CFB Week 5 Best Bet: Louisville Cardinals vs NC State Wolfpack Over 58 (-110)

Odds courtesy of Fanatics Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to 59.5 (-110). 

Offense is the name of the game in this ACC matchup between Louisville and NC State. While both teams have head-scratching losses this year – NC State in Week 0 against Virginia and Louisville last week at home against Wake Forest – high-scoring affairs have been a mainstay. The Cardinals have allowed at least 30 points in every FBS game thus far, while they’ve gotten to 30 themselves in all but last week (27). The Wolfpack are in the same situation – they’ve surrendered at least 30 points to all three FBS opponents and surpassed 30 twice themselves. 

Neither defense is very good at forcing third-and-longs, as they mutually rank outside the top 115 in standard downs rate allowed outside of garbage time per CollegeFootballData, and they haven’t been good in the red zone, either. In fact, NC State is third-worst nationally in red-zone touchdown rate allowed (90%), while Louisville has surrendered 11 scores on 12 red-zone trips – seven of them touchdowns. 

With more than 20 explosive plays apiece, these offenses can move the ball down the field in a hurry against inefficient defenses. The Cardinals and the Wolfpack both cross the opposing 40-yard line at a top-35 rate outside of garbage time, and they tend to put points on the board when they do, mutually averaging 4.4 points or more on those opportunities. I’m looking for fireworks in Raleigh on Saturday afternoon.

Read our full Louisville vs NC State prediction

CFB Week 5 Best Bet: South Carolina Gamecocks -2.5 over Kentucky Wildcats (-122)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to -3 (-110). 

This is, without a doubt, a hold-your-nose play, but it’s a South Carolina spot all the way. Don’t get me wrong, the Gamecocks have a ton of issues, including a quarterback that hasn’t developed according to plan, a suspension of their best defensive player, a wide-receiver corps that has been extremely unreliable, and a defense that isn’t turning opponents over like it’s used to doing under DC Clayton White. However, there’s a lot going for them in this matchup, too. 

For as bad as they’ve been through the air, the Gamecocks have been incredible on the ground. Through four games, they’re 12th in PPA per rush and success rate, as well as ninth in line yards and 15th in rush explosiveness outside of garbage time. Matt Fuller has been a key piece to this offense, sitting top-25 nationally in rush yards (384) while averaging over 6.5 yards per carry – including a 112-yard performance on 19 carries at Alabama last week. He and this South Carolina rushing attack have an excellent matchup at home this week, as Kentucky’s run defense has been abysmal. The Wildcats are 107th in PPA per rush, 99th in rush success rate and 118th in rush explosiveness thus far, while they’re outside the top 70 in stuff rate and PFF’s tackling grade.

Defensively, the Gamecocks have been bad in conference play thus far, but consider the context. They just had back-to-back games against two of the best young quarterbacks in the country, let alone the conference. South Carolina hasn’t turned opponents over hardly at all this year, which is a far cry from what we’re used to seeing from a White-led defense. In case you didn’t know, the Gamecocks led the SEC in turnovers forced from 2021 through 2025. They have two this year; I’m expecting that to change this week. Kentucky is outside the top 60 in havoc allowed, and Wildcats QB Kenny Minchey is a downgrade from what SC has seen in conference play thus far, tallying just one big-time throw to three turnover-worthy plays. Without the distraction of Dylan Stewart for the time being, we should see guys like Caleb Herring, Anthony Addison and Julian Walker come to play.

Kentucky has a date at home with LSU next week, already has a conference win and is halfway to bowl eligibility through four games. South Carolina is 0-2 in conference, and with a road trip to The Swamp next week, this becomes a pivotal game not only for bowl eligibility, but Shane Beamer’s job. In my opinion, that’s a pretty significant motivational advantage for Cocky.

Read our full Kentucky vs South Carolina prediction

College Football Week 5 Picks

Check out our expert college football predictions for the biggest games in Week 5 below:

• Ohio State vs Iowa prediction
• Michigan vs Minnesota prediction
• Alabama vs Mississippi State prediction
• West Virginia vs Iowa State prediction
• Notre Dame vs North Carolina prediction
• Navy vs Air Force prediction
• Michigan State vs Wisconsin prediction
• Vanderbilt vs Georgia prediction
• Auburn vs Tennessee prediction
• Florida vs Missouri prediction
• Virginia vs Florida State prediction
• Louisville vs NC State prediction
• Kentucky vs South Carolina prediction
• Purdue vs Illinois prediction
• Arkansas vs Texas A&M prediction
• Texas Tech vs Colorado prediction
• Miami vs Clemson prediction
• Washington vs USC prediction
• Indiana vs Rutgers prediction