College Football Week 5 Player Props: Best Bets & Picks

The Saturday slate in Week 5 of the college football regular season is right around the corner, and we have an awesome card ahead, ranging from ranked matchups to late-night action out on the island of Oahu. To get you set for the action, I’m back with another three-pack of player props, looking to improve on my 10-5 overall mark and 7-2 run over the last three weeks. Let’s break it all down, but don’t forget our CFB best bets for our most confident plays of the weekend or our CFB picks for analysis on more than 50 games being played Saturday. 

CFB Week 5 Player Prop: Liam Szarka (AF) over 106.5 passing yards (-114)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to 119.5.

Service-academy quarterbacks are not typically known for their throwing prowess, but Liam Szarka throws a great deep ball, as evidenced by his top-40 PFF grade in passes of at least 20 yards last year. Given the nature of this offense revolving so much around the run, passing explosives can be had on successful play-action passes, which is also an area in which Szarka performed admirably last year – and has so far this year. 

Navy’s pass defense has been pretty bad. The Midshipmen are 133rd in PPA per pass, 129th in passing success rate and 115th in pass explosiveness allowed, and they can’t get off the field when it matters most. For reference, they rank 127th in third-down conversion rate allowed and 134th on passing downs PPA allowed, so Szarka could find some success here on in third-and-long situations. 

I like Air Force to win and cover as a favorite here, which means a heavy dose of the Falcons ground game, but this is an attainable number even for a service academy quarterback. I find it interesting oddsmakers have this number higher than his season-long of 103 yards through three games – a hint, if you will. For what it’s worth, Szarka threw for over 200 yards at Navy last year.

CFB Week 5 Player Prop: Matt Fuller (SC) over 70.5 rushing yards (-115)

Odds courtesy of bet365 at the time of publishing. Playable to 79.5 (-110). 

This number seems incredibly low. I’ve already touched on this matchup in my CFB Week 5 best bets article, but in short, Matt Fuller should have room to work this week in an all-in spot for the Gamecocks at home – that is, if they want to salvage the rest of their season and their coach’s job. While South Carolina has been poor through the air, whether it be by LaNorris Sellers being timid or his receivers dropping passes, the Gamecocks have been borderline elite on the ground thanks to Fuller. He has surpassed this number in every game en route to 384 yards and four scores, while he’s averaging 6.7 yards per carry. His 291 yards after contact (PFF) ranks 13th nationally, while his 5.11 yards after contact per attempt is top-25, proving he runs through tackles – which could be an issue for a Kentucky defense that is average-at-best in that department. Keep in mind, those numbers come with a fraction of the workload as those above him, as he didn’t play a full allotment of minutes against Kent State or Towson. 

CFB Week 5 Player Prop: Byrum Brown (AUB) over 1.5 interceptions (+160)

Odds courtesy of bet365 at the time of publishing. Playable to +150.

This isn’t normally a prop I would seek out, but with odds of almost -300 to throw at least one pick, I like the chances he throws more than that against a Tennessee pass defense that picked off Georgia Tech’s Alberto Mendoza twice and Arch Manning once. The Volunteers are hyper aggressive defensively, sitting 10th nationally in havoc generated outside of garbage time. They also sit second in PPA per pass, and showed every bit of that defensive intensity last week in their near-loss to Texas. 

This will be Auburn’s first true road game, and while Brown’s numbers are passable, he has a tendency to struggle when he steps up in class – stemming back to his South Florida days. I see multiple turnover-worthy plays here, especially considering the expected tempo of this game. This is a matchup between two teams that sit in the top 25 in seconds per play, and Auburn is outside the top 85 in rush rate outside of garbage time, so Brown should get plenty of pass attempts – and that’s before you even consider the fact that Auburn could trail for a majority of this contest. That would cause him to force passes more than usual, which only helps us. 

College Football Week 5 Picks

Check out our expert college football predictions for the biggest games in Week 5 below:

• Ohio State vs Iowa prediction
• Michigan vs Minnesota prediction
• Alabama vs Mississippi State prediction
• West Virginia vs Iowa State prediction
• Notre Dame vs North Carolina prediction
• Navy vs Air Force prediction
• Michigan State vs Wisconsin prediction
• Vanderbilt vs Georgia prediction
• Auburn vs Tennessee prediction
• Florida vs Missouri prediction
• Virginia vs Florida State prediction
• Louisville vs NC State prediction
• Kentucky vs South Carolina prediction
• Purdue vs Illinois prediction
• Arkansas vs Texas A&M prediction
• Texas Tech vs Colorado prediction
• Miami vs Clemson prediction
• Washington vs USC prediction
• Indiana vs Rutgers prediction