Tennessee Volunteers vs NC State Wolfpack Prediction, Odds and Picks for Today, 09/07/24

First and foremost, these are a pair of teams that I was very high heading into this season, in large part due to the upward trajectory of their offenses. And while Tennessee was extremely impressive in its Week 1 drubbing of Chattanooga, the same couldn’t be said of NC State, as the Wolfpack struggled to get things going offensively before ultimately pulling away from Western Carolina in a 38-21 victory. Following the pair of contrasting results, the market has heavily shaded toward Tennessee for this matchup. While the Vols were listed as just 4-point favorites over the summer, now we’re seeing Tennessee as high as -10 in the market. Even after I downgraded NC State and upgraded Tennessee following last week’s respective efforts, I definitely can’t get there with this inflated number.

Situationally, it would be reasonable to give some grace to NC State for some of its struggles last week, especially since the team was likely looking ahead to one of its biggest nonconference games in years. After all, the Wolfpack were on the wrong side of some 4th down variance on offense, and also gifted their opponent 7 points with a Grayson McCall interception early in the 1st quarter. It’s important to remember that this is a team that was breaking in a number of new pieces, including McCall at quarterback, and it was never going to be smooth sailing against a hungry in-state FCS playoff team. Even with all of the first half struggles, the Wolfpack still tallied 521 yards of offense and over 7 yards per play in the win. More importantly, the chemistry between McCall and this newly revamped wide receiver room appeared to grow stronger as the game went on, and that momentum should carry over into this matchup against a Tennessee secondary that lost a ton of production from a season ago.

On defense, there’s no doubt that the Wolfpack are going to have a massive challenge on their hands with Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava and an offense that is difficult to deal with as any unit in the country. NC State’s defense is going to have a tough time with slowing down an offense of this caliber (top 20 in success rate & EPA margin), but the Wolfpack are getting back a couple of key starters that missed the season opener due to injury and an early ejection. As for Tennessee, all-world defensive end James Pearce and this Vols defensive front certainly has the ability to get to the quarterback, but if McCall does what he does best (get the ball out quickly), the Wolfpack should be able to attack this brand new Vols secondary and apply some early scoreboard pressure. With so much potential variance in a matchup like this, I’ll gladly take the points with the underdog, especially now that we’re getting double digits.

Tennessee vs NC State prediction: NC State +10 available at time of publishing. Playable to 8.

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As I mentioned in the point spread writeup for this contest there is so much potential variance in a game like this that supports taking the over, even as the number has moved up a couple of points since the open. While this NC State defense is certainly an upgrade from what the Vols faced in Week 1, it’s entirely possible that the Tennessee offense is truly as good as they looked a week ago, especially with a quarterback who has been brilliant in his only two starts thus far. If Tennessee’s offense continues to drop 40+ each week, then Vols fans should start making travel plans for a College Football Playoff game, but that’s not to say this team is without flaw. As previously mentioned, the Tennessee secondary is a glaring weakness on this defense, and I fully expect McCall to attack the middle of the field and get the ball in the hands of his playmakers (Kevin Concepcion, Justin Joly, etc.) as part of this revamped NC State offense. While this game is lined at over a touchdown, I do expect that we’ll see moments where both teams are trailing and end up scoring quickly to match their opponent. And even if the Wolfpack do end up falling behind by double digits, they’ll have plenty of opportunities down the stretch to contribute to this total going over the current number. Let’s take the over and hope for fireworks in Charlotte.

Over 60 available at time of publishing. Playable to 62.