MLB Picks Today: Expert Predictions & Best Bets for Friday, June 12, inc. Pirates vs Marlins
We have a loaded slate of MLB action as the rest of the weekend series begin. With all 30 teams taking the field, there are countless betting angles to choose from. I have 3 MLB best bets that jumped off the page to me this morning.
Let's dive in and discuss my favorite betting angles for Friday, June 12, while you can also check out our MLB picks for each of today's 15 matchups and every game throughout the 2026 season.
MLB best bet: Pittsburgh Pirates ML over Miami Marlins (-146)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -155.
Braxton Ashcraft is coming off his worst start of the season, allowing 6 earned runs to a tough Atlanta lineup. Ashcraft has otherwise been fantastic in 2026, producing as a co-ace alongside Paul Skenes. Even with his recent poor outing the right-hander has a 3.28 ERA across his first 13 starts, spanning 79.2 innings of work combined. His 2.95 xERA, 3.11 FIP, and 3.18 SIERA are all very strong marks, as well. Ashcraft has done well at generating ground balls, limiting free passes, and recording strikeouts. That trio of attributes is attractive to bet on and I am not worried about regression with Ashcraft. Miami has a league average wRC+ of 100 against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days.
Pittsburgh has the 6th best wOBA against righties in the last 30 days with a 112 wRC+. The Pirates have mashed righties all season long. This is especially true when in their home park as they have been able to significantly cut their strikeout rate at PNC. Sandy Alcantara gets the nod for Miami on Friday, marking his 15th start of the season. Alcantara was electric in his last start, tossing 7.0 innings of 1-run ball against Tampa Bay. That start was at home, where he has posted a 3.42 ERA across 8 starts. His 6 road starts have been far less successful, however, compiling a 5.65 such ERA. Alcantara is certainly capable of pitching well in any matchup, but at current pricing I side with the Pirates.
Read our full Marlins vs Pirates prediction
MLB Best Bet: Shane Baz (BAL) Under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-134)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -150.
The San Diego Padres offense deserves to be picked on and I will continue to do so until they find their form. Against right-handed pitching across the last 30 days, the Padres rank 30th in wOBA with a 79 wRC+. They have the 6th highest strikeout rate and 3rd highest ground ball rate in that sample. Excluding openers, the Padres have scored 2 or fewer earned runs against each of the last 9 right-handed starters they have faced. This includes Zack Littell, Aaron Nola and Brady Singer, 3 arms that have otherwise struggled this season.
Shane Baz enters play with a 4.09 ERA across his first 77.0 innings pitched. That ERA is down from 5.48 in just his last 5 starts. The first of those outings did result in 3 earned runs allowed, but that was across 7.0 innings against a red-hot Nationals lineup. Then Baz took down the AL East, tossing 25.2 innings against the Red Sox, Blue Jays and Rays, allowing just 5 earned runs in that 4-start stretch. I look for him to continue his good form in an ideal matchup.
Check out our Padres vs Orioles prediction
MLB Best Bet: Ryan Weathers (NYY) Over 5.5 strikeouts recorded (+116)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to +100 odds.
Ryan Weathers has pitched solidly for the Yankees in his debut season with the team. The former Marlin pitcher has flashed samples of excellence, and I am more than willing to back him in the strikeout department Friday. Weathers has tossed 70 innings this season with 79 strikeouts recorded in that sample. In his first 12 starts he has recorded 6 or more strikeouts on 7 occasions. This includes 2 separate 10-strikeout performances. His 27.7% strikeout rate is an 84th percentile mark this season and he draws a favorable matchup on Friday to continue striking batters out.
The Toronto Blue Jays have been awful against left-handed pitching of late. Since 5/12 they have faced 7 left-handed starters. Among those 7 arms 6 have surpassed this 5.5 prop. 5 of them recorded 7 or more punchouts -- including Cristopher Sanchez with 10. In this sample the Blue Jays rank 29th in wOBA with a 68 wRC+ and a 26.1% strikeout rate. Weathers has 4 pitches that have earned him at least 14 strikeouts this season, and 3 of those pitches have a whiff rate above 33%. At plus money, I see value in betting Weathers to find that sixth strikeout.
Read our full Yankees vs Blue Jays prediction
