MLB Division Series Best Bets Today: Expert Picks & Predictions - Yankees to stay hot with quick start to ALDS
All four division series in the MLB postseason will play their Game 1s on Saturday. It’s White Sox vs Guardians, Braves vs Dodgers, Yankees vs Rays and Padres vs Brewers.
Here are my best bets, and also make sure to check out our MLB picks for predictions throughout the 2026 playoffs.
Cleveland Guardians ML over Chicago White Sox (-154)
The White Sox led the American League Central most of the season only to see the Guardians hunt them down during the final few weeks. There is something to say about Chicago coming off an impressive sweep of Houston in the wild-card round, but I’m siding with rest in this situation. The Guards also have momentum following their big finish to the regular season, plus they have their ace lined up for Game 1 on Saturday afternoon. Parker Messick has faced the White Sox four times this season, delivering quality starts on all four occasions. The visitors are countering with Hagen Smith, which effectively means that it will be a bullpen game. Their ‘pen is good but nothing special. I’m backing Cleveland to get off to a strong start to its postseason campaign in front of the home crowd.
New York Yankees ML over Tampa Bay Rays (+125)
Tampa Bay has the rest advantage, but New York has momentum. The reality is that both things can be good. In this case, I’m rolling with the momentum. The Yankees are hot after sweeping the Red Sox in emphatic fashion, winning 9-0 in Game 1 and then 9-2 in the clincher. Having played only two games and avoiding a whole bunch of bullpen usage, the Yanks’ pitching is in excellent shape moving forward. Gerrit Cole now has the green light to start the ALDS opener. The veteran righty pitched to a 3.61 ERA and 1.10 WHIP this season to go along with a dominant 131-to-25 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He made two quality starts in three appearances against TB – including one in which he hurled 6.0 innings of shutout baseball – and the Bronx Bombers rolled over the Rays 9-2 in his most recent head-to-head outing on September 23. Cole is 11-6 all time in the playoffs with a 2.77 ERA after going a combined 3-1 with a 2.48 ERA in the 2022 and 2024 postseason. New York is 6-2 in its last eight overall dating back to the regular season, a stretch that includes a 3-1 series win over none other than Tampa Bay.
San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers Over 7 (-109)
Even with Jacob Misiorowski on the mound for Milwaukee, I still have to back the Over at a relatively small number of 7. The combination of San Diego’s bats plus a shaky Robbie Ray throwing for the visitors points toward a decent amount of runs being scored. If the Padres can plate at least three, at the very least I think this best pushes – and in all likelihood exceeds the quota. San Diego has scored four or more runs in seven consecutive games, 12 of its last 13 and 18 of its last 20. Misiorowski is great, but an offense with Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill, Xander Bogaerts and Ty France is dangerous against anyone. Meanwhile, Ray compiled a 7.56 ERA in the month of September. The Brewers should do plenty of damage, themselves.
