MLB Picks Today: Expert Predictions & Best Bets for Friday, June 5, including Guardians vs Rangers
The weekend is almost here, and we have a loaded slate of MLB action to get us started. There are numerous games I am interested in watching tonight, but 3 best bets stood out to me among the rest. Let's dive in and take a look at Friday's board of games, while you can find our MLB predictions for more tips and analysis all season long. ## MLB Best Bet: Cleveland Guardians ML (-134) over the Texas Rangers *Odds available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140.* I favor the Cleveland Guardians over the Texas Rangers when they meet in Arlington on Friday evening. Parker Messick is the scheduled starter for the Guardians, and he is a pitcher I have backed numerous times this season. The southpaw hurler enters play with a 2.21 ERA across his first 69.1 innings of work. Messick has made 12 starts, and he has allowed more than 2 earned runs in just 2 of those appearances. His underlying metrics are all strong, indicating his success is sustainable moving forward. In this matchup, he draws a Rangers lineup that is in good form against lefties, but Messick is still my preferred starter in this game. Kumar Rocker is set to start this matchup for the Texas Rangers. Rocker has outperformed my personal expectations this season, posting a 3.54 ERA through his first 56 innings pitched. He has been able to work deeper into games than expected, and he has allowed 0 earned runs in 3 of his last 4 starts. Rocker’s underlying numbers suggest he has been fortunate, however, as his xERA is over a full run higher at 4.64. His 10.4% walk rate and 42.6% hard-hit rate are the Guardians’ path to runs. ## MLB Best Bet: Philadelphia Phillies vs Chicago White Sox Game Total under 8.5 (-110) *Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -120.* Hitting conditions are favorable on Friday in Philadelphia with temperatures in the high-80’s and wind blowing out to right-center around 5-6 MPH. However, I still favor the under on the posted game total in the matchup between the Phillies and the Chicago White Sox. Jesus Luzardo is the scheduled starter for the Phillies in this game. Luzardo had a rough start to his season but has rebounded nicely, allowing 2 or fewer earned runs in 7 of his last 8 starts. His ERA has lowered from 7.94 to 4.30 in that stretch. Overall, Luzardo has outstanding underlying metrics including a 97th percentile hard-hit rate. Look for his good form to continue. We have another southpaw starter in this game with Anthony Kay taking the mound for Chicago. Like Luzardo, Kay had a poor start to his campaign. His ERA ballooned to 6.12 through the month of April, but Kay has since made 6 starts with just 7 combined earned runs allowed. Each of those outings have been at least 5 innings, and the White Sox have won his last 5 starts. Both lineups have been productive against southpaw pitching in the last 30 days, but I am going to roll with the form of the pitchers in this spot. ## MLB Best Bet: Christian Scott (NYM) under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-171) *Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -185.* Christian Scott has been pitching well for the New York Mets. Through his first 30.1 innings of work, the right-hander has posted a 2.97 ERA with 38 strikeouts recorded. Scott walked 5 of the 10 batters he faced in his season debut, recording just 4 outs but escaping with only 1 earned run surrendered. His 6 starts in May resulted in 2 or fewer earned runs allowed 5 times. Scott was tasked with a tough close-proximity rematch recently, facing the same Miami Marlins lineup twice in a row. It is tough for any pitcher to face any lineup twice in the span of a week, but he performed well in both outings with a combined 10.2 innings of 1-run ball. Scott has been excellent this season at suppressing hard contact, ranking 85th percentile in hard-hit rate and 89th percentile in barrel rate so far. While Scott is in good form, the real reason for this bet is the poor form of the San Diego Padres lineup. The Padres rank dead last in wOBA against right-handed pitching across the last 30 days while posting a wRC+ of 72. In that sample, they have the highest strikeout rate and 2nd-highest ground ball rate. Scott shouldn’t have an overly long leash for this start, and I favor his under 2.5 earned runs allowed prop.
