MLB League Championship Series Best Bets Today: Expert Picks & Predictions - Do Brewers Finish the Sweep?
It has been thoroughly impressive to see what the Milwaukee Brewers are doing to the Los Angeles Angels in the NLCS. Milwaukee has taken a commanding 3-0 series lead following Wednesday night's 6-2 victory. They get a chance to finish off Los Angeles Thursday evening while the Guardians and Rays are set to play Game 3 of the ALCS this afternoon.
Let's dive in and discuss my favorite betting angles for Thursday, October 15.
MLB Best Bet: Tyler Glasnow (LAD) Under 14.5 outs (+110)
Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -105.
Tyler Glasnow has been tagged as the Game 4 starter for the Dodgers as they look to fend off elimination and avoid the sweep. Milwaukee has been dominant to begin this series, winning the 3 games by a combined 8 run margin. It will be an all-hands-on deck approach for the Dodgers from a pitching perspective today as they look for Tarik Skubal and Yoshinobu Yamamoto to make the next 2 starts. Glasnow has made 1 postseason appearance so far this year, tossing 14 outs in a 4-1 Dodger victory over the Atlanta Braves. Los Angeles held a 2-1 series lead in that game but still allowed Glasnow just 14 outs across 78 combined pitches and 20 batters faced. Now with their backs against the wall, I cannot envision a longer leash than that.
The matchup is also tougher against a Brewers unit that created issues for right-handed pitching all season long. They display patience and power at the plate while putting a lot of balls into play. Glasnow is someone who is volatile, showcasing his dominance at times but other times he struggles to land pitches in the zone. I expect an early pulling of the starter if Glasnow runs into any trouble early on in this game.
MLB Best Bet: Tyler Glasnow (LAD) Over 1.5 walks allowed (-173)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -180.
Milwaukee drew the highest walk rate against right-handers this year at 10.8%. Glasnow walked 5 batters in his first postseason appearance this season and has walked multiple batters in 5 straight outings overall. Overall, Milwaukee paced MLB in production against righties this season, and they enter this matchup with extreme confidence given their standing in the series. I do prefer the pricing on the outs angle for Glasnow but am comfortable double dipping in this spot given the 1.5 line. Even if Glasnow were to pitch well and exceed 14 outs recorded, that gives this prop a better chance of winning given more batters faced.
I find the most likely outcome to be around 4 innings pitched and 2 walks allowed given recent performance and the matchup at hand. His 8.7% walk rate allowed this season is actually an improvement from last year's 11.7% mark that ranked just 7th percentile. He still relies heavily on chases outside the zone and those are not as easy to come by in a high stakes matchup with the Milwaukee Brewers.
MLB Best Bet: Cleveland Guardians ML (-130) over Tampa Bay Rays
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140.
Gavin Williams was remarkable in the ALDS against the Chicago White Sox, tossing 11.2 innings across 3 outings, allowing just 2 combined earned runs while striking out 24 batters. Williams tossed 5.0 innings of two-run ball with 11 Ks in the Game 2 before entering Game 4 as a reliever and tossing a scoreless frame. Gavin then returned to the mound in Game 5 with a gutsy performance that was etched into the history books. He will look to continue this momentum in Game 3 against the Rays Thursday.
Williams was initially drafted by the Tampa Bay Rays in the 30th round of the 2017 draft before attending college. Out of college his draft prospect was much higher, landing him as a 1st round selection of the Guardians. The highly touted arm struggled with command and injuries to start his career but has put things together and appears to be taking off as a dominant arm for this Guardians team. He is still prone to allowing hard contact, and Tampa Bay is no easy matchup, but his immense strikeout upside and elite form should carry into this matchup.
Griffin Jax is the scheduled starter for Tampa Bay in Game 3. Jax is an awesome weapon to have on any pitching staff, but he is not expected to have the workload Williams will have for Cleveland. I look for Jax to toss a few innings before handing the ball off, perhaps leading to the Rays utilizing their high leverage arms before Cleveland does. Cleveland held the better bullpen ERA and FIP this season anyway, and I favor the Guardians at home with Williams on the mound in Game 3.
