MLB Picks Today: Expert Predictions & Best Bets for Friday, May 29 - Nick Martinez Continues to Roll
Friday is here and we have a new batch of series to dive into and enjoy! There are numerous headline and games worth watching so let's dive in and discuss my 3 favorite bets for Friday's slate of MLB action!
MLB Best Bet: Chris Paddack (CIN) over 2.5 earned runs allowed (-129)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140 odds.
Those that have been with me over the past few seasons understand that I like to bet against Chris Paddack. I was sad to see him released by the Marlins earlier this season as I feared it would be the end of his starting days at the MLB level. That fear was alleviated when Paddack signed with the Cincinnati Reds. Not only can we fade Paddack again, but we get to do so in Great American Ballpark. Cincinnati's home park has been known as a hitter-friendly venue for some time, and I expect that to be the case for Atlanta's bats on Friday.
Paddack has posted a 6.86 ERA in 40.2 innings of work this season. This includes 3 earned runs across 5 innings in his Reds debut against the Cardinals. He allowed 10 base runners in that outing, and things could have been a lot worse. His low strikeout rate and poor batted ball metrics make him tough to back, especially when facing a tough lineup. Atlanta enters this series ranking 2nd in wOBA with a 117 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season. This will also be their 2nd shot at Paddack this season as he faced them when with Miami. Look for offensive success from the Braves early on in this game.
MLB Best Bet: Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Angels F5 under 4.5 (-130)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140 odds.
I favor the under on the posted game total through the first 5 innings of play in Friday’s matchup between the Los Angeles Angels and the Tampa Bay Rays. Walbert Urena is the scheduled starter for Anaheim, as the right-hander is set to make his 10th appearance and 8th start of the season. Through his first 38.1 innings of work Urena has posted a 2.58 ERA. His 3.30 xERA and 3.67 FIP are also both solid marks. Urena is suppressing hard contact and keeping the ball on the ground which helps alleviate his walk concerns. I expect another strong outing from Urena in this spot as he enters with a 1.67 ERA across 27 innings this month.
Nick Martinez is also in good form. The right-handed starter for Tampa Bay is a volatile arm, but he is in a groove right now that I would like to bet on. I am also backing Martinez with a player prop so I will have further analysis on him below. Tampa Bay is 8-2 when he takes the mound thanks to his run prevention tactics. He does have some regression concerns, as that level of dominance is unsustainable, but given current form I favor the under through 5 innings in this matchup.
Los Angeles Angels vs Tampa Bay Rays prediction: First 5 innings under 4.5 (-130) available at time of publishing. Playable to -135 odds.
MLB Best Bet: Nick Martinez (TBR) under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-159)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -170 odds.
Nick Martinez has had an inconsistent career, bouncing from team to team and changing his role several times. Martinez seems to have found the right spot for his career, joining the pitching factory that is the Tampa Bay Rays organization. So far through 59.2 innings of work in 2026 Martinez has been dominant as a starter. Martinez has a 1.51 ERA so far through 10 starts, allowing no more than 2 earned runs in any start so far.
The right-hander is not walking anyone, attacking the zone early and often in counts. He uses 3 different fastballs at least 10.9% of the time and no pitch sees more than 29.9% usage. This type of pitch mix helps to keep opponents off balance, and Martinez has been very effective against both left and right-handed bats.
Mike Trout is really the only Angel with a large sample size against Martinez, and Nick has done well in those matchups. Los Angeles ranks just 23rd in wOBA against right-handed pitching and I don’t believe they are the team to ruin the good form of Martinez.
