MLB Picks Today: Expert Predictions & Best Bets for Saturday, August 1, inc. Rangers vs Astros

Saturday's slate of MLB games is genuinely loaded with exciting matchups across the sport. There are 3 games standing out to me from a betting perspective, so let's dive right in and discuss my best bets for Saturday, August 1.

MLB Best Bet: Texas Rangers ML (-120) over the Houston Astros

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -130.

We have a massive game on tap for Saturday with the Texas Rangers taking on the Houston Astros for the lead in the American League West division. Texas enters Saturday 0.5 games back from the Astros for the divisional lead after Houston won Friday night’s game. Houston also swept the Angels prior to this series, and they will look to continue their momentum Saturday. I do favor Texas on Saturday, however, as they hold the massive starting pitching edge on paper.

Jacob deGrom is the scheduled starter for the Rangers as he looks to make his 21st start of the season. Through 20 outings the veteran right-hander has posted a 3.67 ERA and a 3.54 xERA. deGrom ranks 91st percentile in strikeout rate and 92nd percentile in walk rate, a tremendous combination for run prevention. His batted ball profile is lacking compared to recent seasons, but he is easily still the preferred starter in this spot.

Ronel Blanco is someone I will continue to bet against until he can show proof of good form. Blanco is a pitcher I had reservations about before his injury, and now following an extended time away from the game we are seeing signs of rust. In his 2 starts since returning he has issued 3 walks and allowed 2 home runs in both outings. The result has been 9 earned runs in 10 innings pitched. Look for the Rangers to win this game given current pricing.

MLB Best Bet: St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays under 8.5 (-110)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -120.

Quinn Mathews is set to make his MLB debut for the St. Louis Cardinals Saturday as they take on the Toronto Blue Jays. Mathews, a lefty, was a 4th round draft selection in the 2023 draft following an amazing career at Stanford. Mathews is known for his 156-pitch effort when in college, and his workload at that level typically sat around 100 pitches or more. In the minors the lefty was able to generate solid strikeout metrics including a 10.86 K/9 in AAA this season. Across his 92 innings he has posted a 3.13 ERA and he will look to provide a boost for this Cardinals rotation. Toronto ranks dead last in MLB against lefties across the last 30 days, posting a .252 wOBA and a wRC+ of 60.

Kevin Gausman is not enjoying the best stretch of his season, allowing 28 earned runs across his last 7 starts combined. This stretch of play has seen his season-long ERA spike from 3.41 to 4.51 where it sits entering today. Still, Gausman is a veteran pitcher with playoff success under his belt, and contenders are rumored to be interested in his services. Gausman could do himself a favor by producing a quality start Saturday, and he draws a favorable matchup to do so. St. Louis sits 29th in wOBA with a 74 wRC+ against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days and I favor the under on this posted game total.

MLB Best Bet: Tampa Bay Rays ML (-160) over the Chicago White Sox

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -170 odds.

Drew Rasmussen limped into the all-star break with 11 earned runs allowed across 7.1 innings pitched against the Yankees and Astros. That 2-start stretch raised his ERA from 2.45 to 3.26. That ERA is back down to 3.07 following his last 2 starts, however, posting 12 innings of 2-run ball against the Blue Jays and Guardians. Now Rasmussen is tasked with facing the Chicago White Sox. Chicago ranks 19th in wOBA with a 98 wRC+ against righties in the last 30 days so their current form shouldn’t prevent Rasmussen from pitching well. Tampa Bay dropped Friday’s game, but they have been lethal at home this season and I find it hard to see them losing back-to-back in this spot.

Jordan Hicks is the scheduled starter for the White Sox Saturday. Hicks will serve as the opener for Noah Schultz to avoid the top of the order the first time through. The right-handed converted starter has had success for Chicago this season, but Schultz is a less appealing candidate. Schultz enters Saturday with a 6.15 ERA and 5.93 xERA across his first 60 innings pitched. He ranks poorly in just about every underlying metricI look for, and I am not fond of backing him in Tampa Bay against these Rays.