MLB Picks Today: Expert Predictions & Best Bets for Saturday, August 22, inc. Pirates vs Dodgers

We are in the stretch run of the MLB regular season and there are numerous enticing matchups on Saturday's board of games. From a betting perspective there are three best bets standing out to me, so let's dive in and discuss!

MLB Best Bet: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-110) over Pittsburgh Pirates

Odds available at Bet365 Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -120.

The Pirates are in a tough spot Saturday as they are rightfully massive underdogs against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Pittsburgh will start Jared Jones for his 15th trip to the mound this season. Jones is a competitor who has massive upside with his strikeout potential. Injuries and inconsistency have troubled him throughout the years, however, and he is not always the easiest pitcher to trust. He is allowing a 30th percentile barrel rate on the year with at least one home run allowed in each of his last six starts. The Dodgers obviously have a talented offense despite mediocre recent play. Pittsburgh’s bullpen is also taxed. Luke Weaver and Gregory Soto would be making their third appearance in four days if entering tonight’s game while Mason Montgomery is assuredly unavailable after recent usage. Lake Bacher also tossed 32.0 pitches in relief last night and this bullpen is running thin.

Pittsburgh also has to face Tarik Skubal. My first ever Pickswise article was an over on a strikeout prop for Tarik Skubal against the Pirates. I expect another dazzling effort from the southpaw hurler against my beloved Pirates Saturday night. Skubal, now a Dodger, has made three starts with his new club so far. Those outings have totaled 17.0 innings of work with 19 strikeouts and only 6 earned runs allowed. The Dodgers still haven’t seen the best of Skubal, however, and I believe this matchup is primed for him to excel. Pittsburgh sits just 25th in wOBA with a 73 wRC+ across the last 30 days. Look for the Dodgers to win this game by margin.

MLB Best Bet: Cody Bradford (TEX) Under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-145)

Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -155.

Cody Bradford suffered an elbow injury that required surgery and missed significant time as a result. The left-handed pitcher made just 5 rehab outings this season totaling just 12 innings pitched before returning to the Rangers at the start of this month. Bradford has made three starts so far for Texas, tossing 15.1 innings while allowing just five earned runs. The first of those starts spanned 4.1 scoreless frames against the Giants in his only home start to date. His 2nd outing resulted in 7.0 innings across just 75 pitches against the Angels lineup he will face again today. He did allow three earned runs in that start but only six batters reached base in those 7.0 frames. Bradford's last outing was a 4-inning start, allowing just 2 earned runs to the Athletics in Sacramento.

When healthy in 2023 and 2024 the southpaw showed some decent upside as a starter for the Rangers, and they hope he can contribute to this rotation to close the season. The Angels lineup ranks 28th in wOBA with a 67 wRC+ and 24.5% K% against lefties in the last 30 days. Close proximity rematches tend to favor the batters, but I am fond of Bradford's matchup still as the Angels lack batters with success against lefties. This is especially true following the trade deadline.

MLB Best Bet: Casey Mize (SDP) Under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-154)

Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -165.

Casey Mize is set to make his fourth start as a member of the San Diego Padres following the trade deadline deal with Detroit. His first outing with his new club was pure disaster, allowing 8 earned runs across 3.1 innings against the Arizona Diamondbacks. He rebounded nicely with 6.0 innings of two-run ball against the Brewers and 6.0 more innings of scoreless ball against the Guardians in his next two outings. Now in his fourth start with the club, San Diego hopes he can continue to provide the value they looked for when acquiring his services.

Mize enters play with a 3.18 ERA and 3.32 xERA across his first 102.0 innings this season. His 95 strikeouts have resulted in an above average strikeout rate while also limiting walks well. His batted ball profile is solid as well and he now pitches his home starts in the pitcher-friendly Petco Park. This is key for someone who is a flyball pitcher. Mize will face the Minnesota Twins Saturday. The Twins have history against Mize from his days in Detroit, and they did get to him back in April for 5 earned runs. Minnesota is struggling against righties in the last 30 days, however, ranking just 27th in wOBA with an 80 wRC+. Look for Mize to deliver another strong outing.