MLB Picks Today: Expert Predictions & Best Bets for Saturday, August 29, inc. Mariners vs Blue Jays

Saturday presents us with a fun-looking slate of MLB action and several games worth tuning into. From a betting perspective there were three props that stood out to me this morning, so let's dive in and discuss!

MLB Best Bet: Kade Anderson (SEA) Over 4.5 strikeouts (-113)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -135.

Kade Anderson is set to make his 2nd career MLB start and I am more than willing to pounce on the over for his strikeout prop. His strikeout prop sits at 4.5 with playable juice towards the over, and despite the tough matchup I am fired up to be getting this line. Anderson is one of the more highly touted arms to reach the majors in recent seasons. The former 3rd overall draft pick from LSU in 2025, Anderson is a strikeout machine that dominated AA this season. Anderson skipped AAA after 93.1 innings in AA. His 93.1 innings resulted in a 1.06 ERA with 135 strikeouts to only 13 walks issued. 

Anderson had baseball fans requesting his call-up during the spring, but Seattle waited until after the trade deadline to make their move. Anderson’s debut was a tough matchup against a Cubs lineup that mashes lefties. He did allow 3 earned runs on 2 home runs, but struck out 5 batters in 5.2 innings with some impressive moments mixed in. Anderson will face a Toronto lineup ranking just 24th in wOBA with an 83 wRC+ against lefties in the last 30 days. They aren’t a strikeout heavy lineup, but Anderson’s stuff is good enough to warrant an over on this line in any matchup.

MLB Best Bet: Jose Soriano (TOR) Over 2.5 walks (+120)

Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to +110.

Jose Soriano was acquired by the Blue Jays at the trade deadline after a very strong start to his season with the Angels. His season began in dominant fashion with a scoreless innings streak and a 0.24 ERA through his first 6 starts. Soriano has struggled in 3 of his first 4 starts with his new team, however, and I am slightly worried for his matchup Saturday. 

The right-hander has a 3.43 ERA in 144.1 innings pitched this season. His xERA of 4.46 is far worse, however, and his lack of command is a major reason why. On the season his 10.8% walk rate ranks just 20th percentile and has held him back from true domination. Soriano has a 4.22 ERA so far with Toronto and has allowed 8 earned runs within his last 2 starts. Seattle ranks 2nd in walk rate and 13th in wOBA against righties in the last 30 days and could present problems for Soriano. Soriano has issued 3 or more free passes in 12 of his 26 starts this year. Given current pricing and the matchup I find this prop to be valuable Saturday.

MLB Best Bet: Kyle Leahy (STL) Over 11.5 outs recorded (-153)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -165.

Kyle Leahy is the starting pitcher for St. Louis Saturday as the right-hander prepares for his 26th start of the season. Through 25 outings his 126.1 innings have resulted in a 3.13 ERA. His 4.84 xERA tells another story due to hard contact allowed and low strikeout numbers, but Leahy rarely issues walks and he draws a matchup with Pittsburgh at a good time. The Pirates are struggling to hit right-handed pitching in the last 30 days. In that sample the team sits 28th in wOBA with a 77 wRC+ and high strikeout numbers. Leahy delivered 5.2 innings of 3-run ball with 7 Ks in their first matchup this season.

The Cardinals are being restrictive with his leash towards the tail end of the season given the team’s poor playoff positioning and their hopes for the future. He has seen his workload dwindle in recent outings and his last start lasted just 4 frames against the Phillies despite no runs allowed. His outs recorded line sits at 11.5 for Saturday’s contest, and while I acknowledge the shorter leash, 4 innings is highly attainable for this matchup. I wouldn’t expect more than 4-5 frames, but at 11.5 this prop was a must play for me.