MLB Picks Today: Expert Predictions & Best Bets for Saturday, July 11, inc. Yankees vs Nationals

We have a loaded slate on Saturday with numerous betting angles worth diving into. There were some solid looking angles I left off this article for the sake of brevity but make sure to take a deep look at each game on Saturday to uncover all that this slate has to offer. Let's dive in and discuss my 3 favorite best bets for Saturday, July 11.

MLB Best Bet: New York Yankees -1.5 (-113) over the Washington Nationals

Odds available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -120.

I favor the New York Yankees over the Washington Nationals on Saturday, June 11, and I favor them to win this matchup by multiple runs. New York will turn to Cam Schlittler as the dominant right-hander looks to make his 20th start of the season. Through his first 112 innings pitched Schlittler has a 2.01 ERA and a 2.92 xERA. His 131 strikeouts are good for a 91st percentile clip, and his 4.8% walk rate ranks as a 96th percentile mark. He tossed 8 innings of 1-run ball in his last start, lowering his road ERA to 1.04 in 69.1 innings. Schlittler will make this start on the road as well, and despite a quality lineup opposing him I expect a strong outing from the Cy Young candidate.

Miles Mikolas is far from a Cy Young candidate, allowing 13 earned runs in his last 2 starts alone. On the season the veteran right-hander has posted a 5.78 ERA and 4.94 xERA. He ranks 1st percentile in whiff rate and 2nd percentile in strikeout rate this season, relying heavily on his defense behind him. Yankee batters have not been crushing right-handed pitching since the Aaron Judge injury, but this is still a talented lineup capable of taking advantage of Mikolas. He has also been worse at home this season, further playing into the splits narrative. Look for the Yankees to roll in this matchup.

MLB Best Bet: Chicago Cubs ML (-118) over the Cincinnati Reds

Odds available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -125.

In the last 30 days against right-handed pitching the Cincinnati Reds are baseball’s worst lineup. In that sample they have posted a 69 wRC+ with the worst wOBA and an awful 28.3% strikeout rate. There are multiple pieces of their lineup that seem lost at the plate currently, and Cincinnati is starting to slip further and further away from the rest of the NL Central standings. Javier Assad is not my favorite right-hander to back, but he is my preferred starter on Saturday by default. Assad doesn’t generate strikeouts, but he does limit walks and induce ground balls which can lead to easy outs and potential double plays. Given his opportune matchup I believe he pitches decently on Saturday.

Nick Lodolo has looked better in his last 3 starts, tossing 15 innings of 1-run ball to lower his season-long ERA from 6.12 to 4.68. His 6.13 xERA is still just a 4th percentile mark, however, and I am not overly fond of his profile moving forward. This is especially true when facing the Cubs in their current form against lefties. In the last 30 days against southpaw pitching there has been no better lineup than these Cubs, ranking 1st in wOBA with a 160 wRC+ in that sample. I favor the Cubs at current pricing.

MLB Best Bet: Gage Jump (ATH) over 5.5 strikeouts recorded (+104)

Odds available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -115.

Gage Jump has made 8 starts spanning 43 innings pitched for the Athletics so far in his rookie season. The youthful southpaw has a 3.77 ERA and 4.05 xERA to this point. His ability to fill the zone with strikes has been impressive, and today I am targeting his strikeout prop in what appears to be an advantageous matchup. Jump has 41 strikeouts so far but his 72nd percentile chase rate is what has me most intrigued currently. He uses 5 pitches at least 6% of the time, but his 4-seamer and slider make up most of that pitch mix. Among those top 5 pitches, 4 of them register a whiff rate of at least 26.8%.

Through 7 starts the southpaw has recorded 6 or more strikeouts 3 times including a career-high 9 strikeouts against the Giants on the road. Once again on the road Saturday, Jump gets a chance to attack a lineup away from his hitter-friendly home park. Chicago has struggled against lefties in the last 30 days. In that sample they sit 29th in wOBA with a 66 wRC+. Their strikeout rate in that span sits at 26.9%. They are refusing to walk which should help Jump induce chases, and getting this prop at plus money is an intriguing angle to me that I see value in.