MLB Picks Today: Expert Predictions & Best Bets for Saturday, July 18, inc. *team* vs *team*

The weekend is here and we have a loaded slate of MLB action on Saturday, July 18. There are numerous matchups worth watching and endless possibilities from a betting perspective.

Let's dive in and discuss my 3 favorite matchups!

MLB Best Bet: Milwaukee Brewers ML (-135) over Miami Marlins

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140.

I feel as though I cover most Shane Drohan starts, but I am happy to do so with the way he has pitched the ball this season. Drohan, a 27-year-old lefty, has had an effective rookie season while being used both as a reliever and a starter. 9 of his 19 appearances this season have been starts, and his efficiency has allowed him to work deep into ball games. His last start lasted 6.1 innings which was his 2nd time throwing into the 7th inning. Drohan has a 3.09 ERA with a 3.36 xERA supporting that mark. His ability to generate chases helps both his walk rate and strikeout rate, and his league average ground ball rate is a decent mark. Miami is a solid lineup that is in good form against southpaw pitching, but Drohan should still pitch well Saturday.

Max Meyer has been awesome so far for the Marlins in 2026, posting a 2.58 ERA through his first 108 innings pitched. Meyer has held opponents to a .206 batting average while recording a 74th percentile strikeout clip. His 3.77 xERA is a solid mark, but it is also over a full run higher than his current ERA. With a 28th percentile hard-hit rate and 37th percentile barrel rate, I am not overly fond of his matchup against a quality Brewers lineup. I favor Milwaukee at current pricing.

MLB Best Bet: Philadelphia Phillies ML (-164) over New York Mets

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -170.

The New York Mets won the opening game of their series with the Philadelphia Phillies on Thursday night. New York is still 16 games back from first place in the NL East and 13 games behind Philadelphia in the standings. As a result of their current standing and the talent on their roster, it is expected that the Mets will be massive sellers at the trade deadline. That trade deadline is in just a couple of weeks, and we could soon see this Mets roster overhauled.

As for Saturday, New York will send left-hander Sean Manaea to the hill. Manaea has made 20 appearances this season with 6 of them being starts. In 75 innings he has posted a 4.56 ERA with a 4.22 xERA behind it. He is a decent innings eater with the ability to toss 7 innings of 2-run ball as he did his last time out. Manaea can also be knocked around, however, and active Phillies batters have an .846 OPS against hom in 141 combined plate appearances.

Jesus Luzardo is the scheduled starter for the Phillies in this matchup. Luzardo had a terrific first half of his season, posting a 3.51 ERA and 2.96 xERA in 110.1 innings pitched. The lefty ranks well in every advanced metric and seems primed for an awesome 2nd half to his season. The all-star has been much worse in his home park this season, but I still favor the Phillies at current pricing.

MLB Best Bet: Jared Jones (PIT) Over 4.5 strikeouts recorded (-170)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -185.

Jared Jones missed all of 2025 with injury, and his start to the 2026 season was delayed as he continued to rehab. Upon his return to the major leagues Jones showcased some rust. His performance out of the gates was not what Pirate fans had hoped for, but recent outings have been much better. His last 2 starts before the all-star break resulted in 10 innings of 1-run ball with 14 strikeouts to 2 walks against the Phillies and Braves.

Through 35 innings pitched the right-hander has a 4.39 ERA, but his 3.58 xERA is a much better mark. Jones ranks 93rd percentile in whiff rate entering Saturday's matchup, and that will be my primary focus for this prop. He currently has a 27.1% strikeout rate, and he is doing a terrific job of winning within the zone. Jones has shown improved command and control of the strike zone which could benefit him Saturday. Cleveland has a 25.2% strikeout clip against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days, good for the 6th highest mark in MLB across that span. I also see value in over 5.5 strikeouts at +120 odds or better, but prefer backing him on his standard 4.5 line.