MLB Picks Today: Expert Predictions & Best Bets for Saturday, July 25, inc. *team* vs *team*

Saturday presents us with another loaded slate of MLB action and several games worth diving into from a betting perspective. There are 3 best bets showing value to me this morning so let's jump in and discuss!

MLB Best Bet: Chicago White Sox ML (-120) over the Houston Astros

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -130.

Hunter Brown currently has no control of the strike zone, and that is unfortunate when facing the Chicago White Sox. Chicago ranks ninth in walk rate against righties in the last 30 days while sitting sixth in wOBA and posting a 119 wRC+. The Sox possess patience and power, which is a bad recipe for Brown who has walked 15 batters in his last 3 starts. He has allowed 13 earned runs and an additional unearned run in those outings with 3 homers surrendered. There is still so much talent in his right arm, but current form is not in favor of Brown in this matchup.

Sean Burke is another story, pitching to his ability and delivering a very solid season for the White Sox. Burke has a 3.20 ERA with a 3.56 xERA through his first 112.1 innings of work while ranking 71st percentile in hard-hit rate and 73rd percentile in strike out rate. His current form is terrific as well with 1 or 0 earned runs allowed in 5 of his last 6 starts. Burke's sixth start in that stretch was another strong 5.1 innings of 2-run ball. Houston is a quality lineup, but I favor Burke and the White Sox at current pricing.

MLB Best Bet: Atlanta Braves vs Baltimore Orioles Over 9 (-106)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -110.

I favor the over on the posted game total in Saturday’s matchup between the Atlanta Braves and Baltimore Orioles. Bryce Elder is the scheduled starter for Atlanta as the right-hander makes his 20th start of the season. He enters play with a 4.06 ERA and a 3.86 xERA to back it up. Elder is a pure innings eater in the regular season that can hopefully now contribute some meaningful innings come postseason time. I do not trust him very much, however, as his tendency to allow home runs of late makes him more volatile. Elder has allowed at least 1 home run in each of his last 7 starts with 12 total homers given up in that span. Baltimore is not crushing right-handed pitching of late, but they are more than capable of contributing in the home-run department. 

Brandon Young is the shakier of today’s starting options in terms of underlying metrics. His 3.25 ERA has a 4.21 xERA behind it with even worse strikeout metrics and a higher hard-hit rate allowed than Elder. Young also draws the tougher matchup on paper with Atlanta crushing right-handed pitching of late. In the last 30 days the Braves sit 4th in wOBA with a 123 wRC+. The seventh-highest walk rate and 12th-lowest strikeout rate in that sample shows their plate discipline is on point, and I favor Atlanta to score enough runs to push this game over the posted total.

MLB Best Bet: Sonny Gray (BOS) Under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-135)

Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -150.

Sonny Gray is on a roll with 5 consecutive starts of 1 or 0 runs allowed. In that span, the veteran right-hander has tossed at least 6.0 innings each start with 7.0 or more innings twice. He has thrown 6.0 or more innings in 9 straight outings with Boston winning 8 of those games. He has been a major contributor to their recent hot stretch, and now Boston is rumored to be buyers at the trade deadline. Gray is part of a talented pitching staff for Boston that has Red Sox fans optimistic for playoff success. His 2.48 ERA through 101.2 innings lowers to 2.10 when in his home park, and now he draws a favorable matchup.

Toronto has been slumping against right-handed pitching. In the last 30 days the Blue Jays sit 29th in wOBA with a 65 wRC+. They aren't striking out, but their quality of contact is horrible, and they are refusing to work counts and draw walks. Gray also shows value on his outs prop as a result, but I favor the under on the earned run prop given current form of both parties.