MLB Picks Today: Expert Predictions & Best Bets for Saturday, July 4, inc. Brewers vs Diamondbacks
The 4th of July is a baseball holiday, and the 250th anniversary of the United States is certainly going to set off fireworks across all of Major League Baseball. There are countless entertaining games on today from early in the morning to late at night, and I am fired up to consume as much baseball as I can.
Let's dive in and discuss my 3 favorite bets for the 4th of July!
MLB Best Bet: Milwaukee Brewers ML (-148) over the Arizona Diamondbacks
Odds available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -165 odds.
Saturday presents us with the epitome of a pitching mismatch on paper as the Milwaukee Brewers and Arizona Diamondbacks matchup. Merrill Kelly has been arguably baseball’s worst starting option so far in 2026, posting a 5.84 ERA with even worse underlying metrics. Kelly is tied for worst barrel rate and worst expected batting average in MLB with Tomoyuki Sugano. His 7.57 xERA is a 1st percentile mark. He has a K-BB% of just 3.9% which is a travesty for someone who sat at 13.9% just last season. Kelly has been at his worst in his home park, allowing opponents to hit .322 against him with 9 home runs in just 27.2 innings of work. He now hosts a Brewers lineup that ranks 5th in wOBA with a 127 wRC+ against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days.
Brandon Woodruff has been elite since returning from injury, posting 11.1 scoreless frames with 4 base runners allowed and 16 strikeouts recorded. He gets an advantageous matchup on Saturday against an Arizona lineup that is slumping hard against righties. Across the last 30 days the Diamondbacks rank just 26th in wOBA with an 82 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Woodruff’s underlying metrics are very strong and I believe he presents the Brewers with a massive starting pitching edge.
MLB Best Bet: San Francisco Giants ML (-130) over the Colorado Rockies
Odds available at Caesars sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -135 odds.
Robbie Ray has had a very interesting season for the San Francisco Giants in 2026. The southpaw hurler has had patches of appearing as an elite starter, and times where he has struggled mightily. His advanced metrics don’t like him, with an xERA over a full run higher than his current ERA and some shaky batted ball metrics, but he is in good form entering this matchup. Ray has allowed 0 earned runs in 22.1 innings of work across his last 3 starts made. He faced the Braves twice and the Athletics once in that stretch, absolutely mowing down those lineups in each attempt. Colorado has been in terrific offensive form, and they will likely contribute towards the total, but Ray is my preferred starter in this spot.
Tomoyuki Sugano is set to start for the Rockies on Saturday, marking his 17th start of the season. Like Ray, Sugano’s underlying metrics are worrisome. Sugano’s metrics are at a whole other level of concern, however. His 4.80 ERA is shadowed by a horrific 7.07 xERA that ranks 1st percentile. Sugano sits 1st percentile in barrel rate as well while just 3rd percentile in strikeout rate. San Francisco has been mashing right-handed pitching across the last 30 days and I favor them at current pricing.
MLB Best Bet: Pittsburgh Pirates ML (-160) over the Washington Nationals
Odds available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -175 odds.
This game has an early start so make sure to lock it in before heading out for your 4th of July festivities if you plan on tailing. I favored the Washington Nationals in Game 1 of their weekend series with the Pittsburgh Pirates, and they did win that game by a 9-5 final score. Pittsburgh holds the starting pitching edge in Game 2, however, and I believe they even the series up on Saturday. Braxton Ashcraft allowed 3 home runs and 5 earned runs to the Phillies in his last start, but he had been in terrific form prior. Through 103.2 innings this season the right-hander holds a 3.33 ERA and an even better 3.07 xERA. Washington is a very solid offense against right-handed pitching, ranking 12th in wOBA with a 113 wRC+. Pittsburgh has been even better, however, and they draw the weaker starter.
The Pirates rank 3rd in wOBA with a 130 wRC+ against right-handed pitching across the last 30 days. Even with the absences of Spencer Horwitz and Oneil Cruz this lineup is producing terrific results, and I expect them to produce against Zach Littell today. Littell has allowed at least 1 home run in 4 straight starts and 22 home runs total through his first 80 innings pitched. His 5.29 ERA has an even worse 6.76 xERA behind it, and his low strikeout rate should result in a ton of balls put into play. I favor the Pirates at current pricing.
