MLB Picks Today: Expert Predictions & Best Bets for Saturday, September 5, inc. White Sox vs Twins
College Football is here but we are still focused on finding value in the MLB streets. Luckily, there are three best bets standing out to me on the MLB board this morning.
Let's dive in and discuss!
MLB Best Bet: Minnesota Twins ML (+106) over Chicago White Sox
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -105.
It is hard not to favor the Minnesota Twins over the Chicago White Sox given pricing on Saturday. Minnesota finds itself as an underdog despite itsexcellent form against southpaw pitching and the weak lefty, they are matching up against. In the last 30 days against left-handed pitching the Twins rank fourth in wOBA with a 126 wRC+. Anthony Kay is set to start this game for the White Sox. Kay enters play with a 4.28 ERA and 4.92 xERA in 136.2 innings this season for Chicago. The lefty strikes out a low rate of batters and allows too many barrels for my liking. He pitched well against the Twins earlier in the year, but I am hesitant to believe he will replicate that performance again.
Taj Bradley is set to start this game for the Twins, marking his 28th start of the season. Bradley has stayed healthy this year which is a step in the right direction, and his performance has been solid as well. Through his first 154.1 innings pitched his 3.85 ERA is backed by a 3.92 xERA. His hard-hit rate allowed is worrisome, and his walk rate is still higher than I’d like, but his strikeout ability helps him get out of jams more often than not. Bradley has 20 strikeouts in his last two starts alone while the White Sox are middle of the pack in production against righties across the last 30 days.
MLB Best Bet: Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) Under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-117)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -135.
Brandon Pfaadt is pitching well for the Arizona Diamondbacks and draws a favorable matchup on Saturday against a slumping Houston Astros lineup. The Astros have struggled to hit right-handed pitching in the last 30 days, ranking dead least in wOBA with a 73 wRC+ in that sample. Houston is batting a putrid .195 over that span while producing very little power as well. I expect Pfaadt to continue his solid form in this matchup.
Pfaadt enters play with a 3.49 ERA and 3.76 xERA across 111.0 innings this season. He spent some time in the bullpen after early season struggles but has arguably been the team’s ace since rejoining the rotation. Pfaadt has allowed two or fewer earned runs in 10 of his 12 starts since returning to his starting role, lowering his ERA from 5.92 to where it sits today over that span. His elite walk rate, heavy ground ball rate, and the amount of weak contact he induces combine for a solid run prevention profile.
MLB Best Bet: Yusei Kikuchi (LAA) Over 5.5 strikeouts (-142)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -160.
Yusei Kikuchi is left-handed. That will benefit him against the Pittsburgh Pirates Saturday as Pittsburgh has struggled with left-handed pitching all season long. It has been a glaring weakness for the lineup throughout the season, and in the last 30 days the struggles have continued. Over that span the team sits 23rd in wOBA with a 79 wRC+. Their strikeout rate is what stands out, however, as their 28.6% K% against lefties is higher than anyone else in MLB.
Kikuchi has battled injury this season, missing time from late-April til the end of August. He does have 43 strikeouts across his 43.0 innings pitched, including six strikeouts against the Phillies in his last start. He also produced eight strikeouts twice this season against the Braves and Padres back in April. Over the years we have seen his strikeout upside, and I don’t hate a plus-money stab at seven or more Ks, either.
