MLB Picks Today: Expert Predictions & Best Bets for Sunday, August 23, inc. Cubs vs Mariners
We have a loaded slate of action Sunday, and I had trouble trimming my list of potential props to share with you. I decided on three, but then changed my mind and added a bonus prop within the final writeup. Let's dive in and discuss all four best bets on Sunday's slate of games, while you can always find our MLB predictions for picks and analysis on EVERY game remaining this season.
MLB Best Bet: Shota Imanaga (CHC) under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-145)
Odds available at BetMGM sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -160.
No team in Major League Baseball has more plate appearances against left-handed pitching in the last 30 days than the Seattle Mariners. In that sample, the Mariners have 463 PA, 39 more than anyone else and 264 more than the Cincinnati Reds, who sit last on the list. The Mariners have not had much success against those lefties despite their high exposure. In this sample, Seattle sits 24th in wOBA while posting an 88 wRC+ and the ninth-highest strikeout rate.
Shota Imanaga is the next lefty set to face Seattle, and he will do so away from his home park. Imanaga is someone I have enjoyed backing throughout his MLB career, as he is still one of the few lefties to throw a splitter with regularity. The southpaw hurler is a strikeout artist who also limits walks well, resulting in a very solid 18.7% K-BB% this season. Seattle is a tough place to hit, and Imanaga should be helped out a bit as a fly ball pitcher in this start. Among the last 24 southpaw starters to face the Mariners, 15 have remained under this 2.5 earned run allowed prop. This includes six of the last eight to face Seattle and I expect Imanaga to continue this trend.
Get our Cubs vs Mariners prediction
MLB Best Bet: Jake Bennett (BOS) over 4.5 strikeouts recorded (-125)
Odds available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140.
Let’s stick with the left-handed trend and back Jake Bennett in his matchup with the San Francisco Giants. Bennett is admittedly not amidst his best stretch of play, coming into this start having allowed three or more earned runs in five straight starts. He is already well past his previous mark for innings in a professional season, and the southpaw may be running out of gas. I believe there is still some gas in the tank, however, and a matchup against the San Francisco Giants could be just what the doctor ordered.
Bennett enters play with a 3.46 ERA and 3.19 xERA through his 14 MLB starts. The southpaw starter generates chases on pitches outside the zone at an elite 94th-percentile clip. This has resulted in an excellent walk rate and sporadic strikeout production. He ranks just 25th percentile in strikeout rate this season but has three instances of at least six strikeouts including a nine-strikeout performance back in June.
We need just five strikeouts Sunday against the Giants, something Bennett has done in each of his last two starts. The Giants are striking out at a 26.3% clip against lefties across the last 30 days, a sample spanning 358 total plate appearances. Patrick Sandoval (6), Parker Messick (10), and Foster Griffin (6) have each surpassed this 4.5 line in their last three matchups with lefty starters. Even Kyle Freeland racked up nine Ks against this team last month.
Check out our full Giants vs Red Sox prediction
MLB Best Bet: Andrew Abbott (CIN) over 2.5 earned runs allowed (-125)
Odds available at Caesars sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140.
MLB Best Bet: Andrew Abbott (CIN) over 2.5 walks allowed (+146)
Odds available at Caesars sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to +130.
Our third and fourth bets on a lefty starter during Sunday’s slate of games will pick on Andrew Abbott. Abbott draws a tough matchup Sunday against an Arizona Diamondbacks team that is mashing lefty pitching of late. Even without Ketel Marte, this lineup is producing against lefties, mashing Nick Lodolo, Payton Tolle and Ranger Suarez in their last three chances against southpaw pitching. Across the last 30 days, they sit second in wOBA with a 131 wRC+ and an excellent K-BB%.
Abbott doesn’t enter this matchup in the best of form, having posted a 5.24 ERA through 22.1 innings so far this month. In his four August starts, three have resulted in three or more earned runs allowed, as he has issued 12 walks and struck out just 14 batters. He has walked 12 or more batters in each month this season, posting an overall walk rate of 10.9%, which sits 20th percentile. His xBA also sits just 28th percentile, and there isn’t much under the hood that suggests Abbott will find a groove.
This is the second time Arizona will see Abbott this season. He issued three free passes in the first matchup but escaped with just one earned run allowed. I believe the Diamondbacks will benefit from a second look at the lefty and am comfortable doubling up on props against him. Abbott has issued three or more walks and allowed three or more earned runs in half of his starts this season, and in this tough matchup, he seems primed to do so once again.
