MLB Picks Today: Expert Predictions & Best Bets for Sunday, June 21, inc. Dodgers vs Orioles
Zack Wheeler takes on the Mets on Sunday Night Baseball, the Dodgers look to avoid a series loss at home against the Orioles and the White Sox look to avoid a sweep in Detroit.
Let's dive in and discuss my 3 favorite bets for Sunday's slate of MLB action!
MLB Best Bet: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-109) over Baltimore Orioles
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -120.
I am a fan of Emmet Sheehan. I believe if he had been traded to another organization 2 years ago that he would be a household name with 150 or more innings under his belt every year. Instead, he is one of the countless arms the Dodgers have in their stable of pitchers. Sheehan has made 13 starts this season for Los Angeles with a 4.76 ERA across 64.1 innings. His underlying metrics suggest he has pitched better, however. Sheehan has a 4.27 FIP, 3.79 xERA and 3.44 SIERA. His walk rate, chase rate and whiff rate range from 81st to 91st percentile, and he has a 20.3% K-BB% as a result. He has also pitched far better in his home park this season.
Baltimore has a good lineup against right-handed pitching, but the Dodgers boast the best lineup against right-handed pitching. Los Angeles also gets to face a starter with regression concerns in Brandon Young. Young has made 11 starts spanning 62.1 innings of work with a 3.18 ERA for the Orioles who have needed that production badly. His xERA sits at 4.33 with a 4.10 FIP and 4.88 SIERA. Young has thrived on generating chases on pitches located outside the zone this season. He enters Sunday ranking 86th percentile in that metric. Los Angeles has the second-lowest chase rate in baseball across the last 30 days. They also have a .376 wOBA and 141 wRC+ in that span against right-handed pitching. The Dodgers also hold a sizable bullpen edge, so expect them to win this game by multiple runs.
MLB Best Bet: Chicago White Sox ML (-102) over Detroit Tigers
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -110.
Davis Martin had one of the best starts to this season of any pitcher in baseball, but he has cooled off of late. The White Sox ace has struggled in 2 of his last 3 outings, but I believe we can explain parts of why. His first poor outing was on the road against the Minnesota Twins, allowing 10 hits, 3 walks, and 6 earned runs across 4.2 innings of work. That was his 2nd time facing that same lineup in a row, however. Martin tossed 6 innings of 1-run ball in the first matchup, but it is a challenge for any starter to have a close proximity rematch. Minnesota is also crushing right-handed pitching. He bounced back nicely with 6 innings of scoreless ball against Atlanta at home but then struggled in New York against the Yankees. Martin allowed 9 earned runs on 3 home runs to the Yankees. Those poor starts ballooned his season-long ERA from 2.00 to 3.31 where it sits today.
I still believe in Martin moving forward as his 3.50 SIERA and 2.91 FIP are still very solid marks. The Tigers have yet to see Martin this season but in 63 combined plate appearances against him they have a combined .681 OPS. Detroit ranks 17th in wOBA with a 104 wRC+ against right-handed pitching across the last 30 days. Chicago ranks 14th in wOBA with a 107 wRC+ in that same sample, and I believe they get to face the weaker starting option as well.
Keider Montero is set to make his 15th appearance and 14th start of the season for Detroit. The right-hander has amassed 73.2 innings of work so far, posting a 3.67 ERA to this point. His 4.71 SIERA suggests eventual regression, however, and I have never really been a fan of Montero from a betting perspective. He struggles to earn whiffs, sitting just 2nd percentile in whiff rate, and his 5th percentile chase rate forces him to hammer the strike zone. Montero doesn’t generate many ground balls either, and unlike Martin, Montero has faced the opposing lineup this season. He tossed 6 scoreless frames against Chicago on May 31, but I expect a better output from the White Sox today as they grab a road win.
MLB Best Bet: Zack Wheeler (PHI) Over 6.5 strikeouts (-106)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -120.
Zack Wheeler made his first start of the season on April 25 after recovering from thoracic outlet surgery. It's like he never missed any time as the veteran right-hander has picked things up in elite form. Through his first 10 starts he has tossed 62.2 innings with a 2.01 ERA and a 19.9% K-BB%. His batted ball metrics are strong as well and I look for him to continue his excellent form on Sunday against the New York Mets.
The Mets have been struggling at the plate against right-handed pitching. In the last 30 days against righties the Mets sit 26th in wOBA with a 93 WRC+. They have a below average walk rate thanks to the 9th highest chase rate, but I am looking to attack them in the strikeout department for this prop. The Mets have the 3rd highest strikeout rate in this sample at 24.7%, and now they get Wheeler and his 26.3% strikeout clip.
Wheeler has diversified his pitch mix even further in 2026, upping his splitter usage to 13.3% from 8.9% last season and his cutter usage is up from 8.6% to 11.2%. He is now throwing 5 of his 6 pitches at least 11.2% of the time with his curveball getting 7.6% usage. Wheeler has dominated both sides of the plate this season and I expect 7 or more strikeouts in this spot, especially considering how deep he has been pitching into games.
