MLB Picks Today: Expert Predictions & Best Bets for Sunday, June 28, inc. Diamondbacks vs Rays
I am a fan of Sunday's slate of games, and there are several spots standing out to me from a betting perspective. Let's dive right in and discuss my 3 favorite betting angles for Sunday, June 28, while you can get all of our MLB predictions for EVERY game throughout the season.
MLB Best Bet: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 over the Arizona Diamondbacks (+118)
Odds available at BetMGM sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to +100.
I will continue to pick on Merrill Kelly until he figures things out. The veteran right-hander is in the midst of a dreadful season, and his underlying metrics suggest things could get worse. Through 13 starts spanning 75.2 innings of work, Kelly has posted a 5.71 ERA. Opponents are hitting .283 against him while also drawing a 9.3% walk rate. His 7.20 xERA is a far worse mark, however, and ranks as 1st percentile among MLB pitchers. Kelly has a higher barrel rate allowed at 14.4% than strikeout rate at 13.1%. Meanwhile, opponent expected batting average based on the quality of contact they make against him is at .304. Tampa Bay ranks 6th in wOBA with a 123 wRC+ and the 4th lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days.
Drew Rasmussen is a Cy Young Candidate in the American League. He currently sits within the top 5 in odds across all major sportsbooks, and his production warrants that current standing. Through 15 starts spanning 86 innings of work, Rasmussen has posted a 2.62 ERA and 3.08 xERA. His 89 strikeouts to 15 walks are an elite 22.3% K-BB%. Rasmussen ranks 82nd percentile in ground ball rate and 81st percentile in hard-hit rate, which is a combination not often seen. He is also pitching at his best entering Sunday, tossing 27 innings with a 1.00 ERA this month. Arizona is 29th in wOBA with a 77 wRC+ against righties in the last 30 days.
Get our full Diamondbacks vs Rays prediction
MLB Best Bet: Merrill Kelly (ARI) over 2.5 earned runs allowed (-145)
Odds available at Caesars sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -160.
I am comfortable doubling up on the Merrill Kelly fade on Sunday by betting the over on his 2.5 earned runs allowed prop. Kelly has allowed 3 or more earned runs in 7 of 13 starts made this season. He has struggled against both lefty and righty hitters, but especially left-handed bats. Lefties are posting a .941 OPS against Merrill through 191 plate appearances, and they have slugged 10 of the 15 home runs against him. Tampa Bay should have 6 left-handed bats in the lineup Sunday to take advantage of this split.
The main issue for Kelly this season has been his inability to trust the 4-seam fastball. Last season, his 4-seamer held opponents to a .211 average with a 24.6% whiff rate. This year, that pitch is generating a whiff rate of only 13.5% and opponents are hitting .328 off of it. They are also slugging .641 against that offering. I expect the Rays to produce against Kelly in this spot.
MLB Best Bet: Brady Singer (CIN) over 2.5 earned runs allowed (-120)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -135.
Brady Singer has rounded into form after a dreadful start to his 2026 campaign. The Cincinnati Reds’ right-hander had a 6.18 ERA through his first 11 starts of the season. His last 4 outings have combined for a 1.64 ERA across 22 innings pitched, lowering that ERA to 4.81 on the season. I am still not a fan of his matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates on Sunday.
Singer faced the Pirates on May 1, lasting just 3.1 innings in that outing. The 29-year-old allowed 2 walks and 7 hits including 2 home runs, resulting in 4 earned runs. Pittsburgh won that game 9-1 as they were able to tap into the shaky Reds bullpen early in the game. Now, Singer will pitch in PNC park again, and this time Pittsburgh should be even more familiar with his arsenal.
Pittsburgh has been mashing right-handed pitching in the last 30 days. In that span, they sit 5th in wOBA with a 130 wRC+. They also have the 5th-best wOBA and a 117 wRC+ against righties at home across the entire season. Pittsburgh has steadily produced against low strikeout rate arms, and Singer registered just 1 strikeout in that first matchup. Look for Singer to allow 3 or more earned runs in this spot.
