MLB Picks Today: Expert Predictions & Best Bets for Sunday, May 24 - Michael King Leads Padres to Win
We nailed our Davis Martin strikeout ladder and White Sox ML bets on Friday but fell short with Rangers ML. It was still a good day of baseball betting, and I look for that to continue on Sunday. Let's dive in and discuss my 3 favorite bets for Sunday's slate of MLB action!
MLB Best Bet: San Diego Padres ML (-162) over The Athletics
Odds available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -170 odds.
Michael King is not perfect, ranking 27th percentile in walk rate and 33rd percentile in barrel rate. Despite this, King is both a very effective starting option for San Diego and my preferred starter in today’s game against the Athletics. King has a 2.31 ERA through his first 58.1 innings of work for the Padres this season. The right-hander earns a healthy rate of strikeouts and ground balls which helps limit the bad innings. He is also in terrific form having tossed 7 scoreless frames against the Dodgers in his last start. It also helps to have a historically talented bullpen behind you whenever you exit the game.
I expect King to exit his start with a lead today as his offense should be able to produce against Luis Medina. Medina struggled mightily in a starting role with the Athletics in 2023 and 2024. He has been more successful in a relief role this season, but I am still not a fan of his command nor his batted ball profile. He also shouldn’t go too long in this game as the opener, and we could see Jacob Lopez as the bulk reliever. Regardless of the Athletics pitching plan, San Diego holds the pitching edge in this matchup, and I side with them at current pricing.
MLB Best Bet: Michael King (SDP) over 17.5 outs recorded (-142)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -160 odds.
Continuing in the Padres vs Athletics matchup, I want to back Michael King in the props market. His strikeout prop of 5.5 is enticing, but I find a larger edge in his outs recorded market on Sunday. King has exceeded his 17.5 outs recorded prop in 6 of his first 10 starts this season, and his matchup today presents well for his 7th long outing of the year.
The Athletics have been a different lineup against right-handed pitching when at home and when on the road. At home they sport a league-low 18.4% strikeout rate while recording the 5th lowest ground ball rate at 38.5%. Then they go on the road, and their strikeout rate spikes to 22.6%. Even more astonishing is their 47.2% ground ball rate on the road which is the 2nd highest mark in baseball.
This plays right into King's strengths. King enters Sunday ranking 74th percentile in strikeout rate and 81st percentile in ground ball percentage. The Athletics also average the 4th fewest pitches per plate appearance as a lineup this season. That should help King's efficiency on Sunday. I also appreciate wind blowing in around 8 MPH in what is already a pitcher-friendly park. I expect 6 strong frames from King in this outing.
MLB Best Bet: Noah Schultz (CWS) under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-155)
Odds available at BetMGM sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -165 odds.
Noah Schultz is left-handed. San Francisco is not able to hit left-handed pitching very well. This is a spot I had circled coming into this weekend and I am happy to get a playable price on his earned runs prop on Sunday. Schultz enters play with a 4.93 ERA in his first 34.2 innings of work. He has allowed 3 or more earned runs in 3 straight starts including 7 earned runs to the Angels of all lineups. He is not perfect, and neither are his underlying metrics.
Still, Schultz is a talented prospect with a funky delivery, and I expect 5 innings of 2-run ball on Sunday. The southpaw hurler has had 3 very strong outings in his first 7 starts. His first of the bunch was 5 innings of 1-run ball with 6 strikeouts on the road against the Athletics. His next start was 6 innings of 2-run ball with 8 strikeouts against a Nationals lineup ranking 2nd in wOBA against lefties this season. The very next start was a road start in San Diego, tossing 6 innings of scoreless ball despite just 2 strikeouts.
That start in San Diego presents similarly to his start today given the pitcher-friendly conditions. Oracle Park in San Francisco is another very pitcher-friendly park, and I believe it is an environment he will succeed in today. He faces a Giants lineup ranking 26th in wOBA against southpaw pitching in 2026. They walk at the 2nd lowest rate and hit into the 8th highest ground ball rate in that split. The Giants have faced 9 non-opener left-handed starting pitchers this season. Among that sample, 8 have allowed 2 or fewer earned runs with 6 of them allowing 1 0r 0. With an out recorded prop of 15.5 juiced heavily towards the under I don't expect an overly long leash for Schultz in this game.
