MLB Picks Today: Expert Predictions & Best Bets for Sunday, May 31 - Jacob Misiorowski Keeps Rolling
Baseball has the stage on Sunday with a full slate of entertaining matchups. There are 3 best bets standing out to me on this card so let's dive in and discuss them below!
MLB Best Bet: Milwaukee Brewers ML (-200) over the Houston Astros
Odds available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -210 odds.
Tatsuya Imai started and tossed 6 innings of no-hit ball during his last outing. The Astros relievers were able to close out that unconventional no-hitter which was a special moment for the right-handed rookie. It has taken him time to find his footing at the MLB level, and for Astros fans I am sure it was encouraging to see him put things together last time out. He draws a tough matchup on Sunday against the Brewers. Milwaukee ranks 11th in wOBA with a 103 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this month. I am also still not a fan of the bullpen behind Imai as they have struggled for the majority of the season.
Jacob Misiorowski gives Milwaukee a fantastic chance to win each time he takes the mound. The physically imposing right-hander has posted a 1.83 ERA across his first 64 innings pitched this season. Misiorowski has been dominant with 100 strikeouts to only 19 walks in that time frame. He ranks 95th percentile or greater in strikeout rate, xBA, and barrel rate this season while also doing a solid job of keeping the ball on the ground. He has tossed 31.1 innings in May with only 1 earned run allowed and 49 strikeouts recorded. Look for him to continue dominating on Sunday.
MLB Best Bet: Pittsburgh Pirates ML (-158) over the Minnesota Twins
Odds available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -165 odds.
The Pittsburgh Pirates have won both of the first 2 games in their weekend series with the Minnesota Twins. Both games have been extremely entertaining, and both games have had terrific finishes. I expect Pittsburgh to finish off the sweep of Minnesota on Sunday as they enter the game with a clear pitching edge.
Braxton Ashcraft has been outstanding this season for the Pirates. He has performed as Pittsburgh's 2nd best pitcher and his consistency has been welcomed by Pirate fans. His performance this month has taken another step forward, pitching to a 1.82 ERA in 34.2 innings of work. He is efficient, generates ground balls, punches batters out, and induces soft contact. I am looking to back Ashcraft any chance I can given his current form.
Pittsburgh also ranks 1st in baseball in wOBA against right-handed pitching during the month of May. Their 122 wRC+ in that sample is an impressive mark, and they have been far more lethal offensively this season in their home park. They crushed Bailey Ober last night and now get Zebby Matthews on Sunday. Zebby has pitched well in his first 3 starts of the year for Minnesota, tossing 19 innings with 5 earned runs allowed. He has allowed 3 home runs, however, and home runs were an issue for him last season as well. Matthews posted a 22nd percentile barrel rate last season across 79.1 MLB innings pitched. While not a poor starting option, Pittsburgh holds the edge with Ashcraft on the mound.
MLB Best Bet: Bryce Miller (SEA) over 14.5 outs recorded (-160)
Odds available at BetMGM sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -175 odds.
Bryce Miller will make his 4th appearance of the season on Sunday as he takes on the Arizona Diamondbacks. Miller had a delayed start to his season due to injury, and they have been cautious with his workload upon his return. His season debut saw 81 pitches across 25 batters faced in a starting role. He tossed 5.1 innings of 2-run ball in that start against the Astros. Miller started in his next game as well, tossing 5.2 innings of 1-hit ball with 7 strikeouts against the White Sox. He did that in just 72 pitches across 19 batters faced. Miller's last outing was in a relief role, taking over for Luis Castillo and tossing 5 innings of 2-run ball against the Athletics.
Now Miller is starting again on 5 full days of rest. Luis Castillo lingers behind him as a likely option to pitch behind him in a piggyback role, but I see no reason to limit Miller below the 5-inning threshold. I have seen plans discussed that this will be the final time they piggyback before entering a 6-man rotation for the upcoming stretch of games. There is obviously some risk taking an over on this type of volume prop, but I am of the belief they will let Miller reach that 5 inning threshold before being pulled. I would obviously stay away from any sort of over on a 15.5 line.
The matchup is solid for Miller to be efficient. Arizona is an offense that has refused to walk against right-handed pitching this season. On the year their 8.1% walk rate against righties is tied for 4th lowest in baseball with the Mets. They sit 24th in wOBA with a 91 wRC+ against righties on the year and in the month of May that wRC+ has fallen to 88. Miller has only walked 2 batters in his first 16 innings pitched and has generated soft contact at an elite rate. At 14.5 outs I am willing to take a stab on Miller and his efficiency, even with Castillo set to relieve him eventually.
