MLB Picks Today: Expert Predictions & Best Bets for Sunday, September 6, inc. Red Sox vs Orioles
The holiday weekend is here, and we have a loaded slate of MLB action worth diving into Sunday. With several spots showing value on the board, I had to trim down my list, but let's dive in and discuss my three favorite betting angles for Sunday, September 6. Don't forget the rest of our MLB picks for analysis on every remaining game this season, including other matchups today like Brewers vs Reds, Athletics vs Mariners and Nationals vs Dodgers.
MLB Best Bet: Boston Red Sox ML (-135) over the Baltimore Orioles
Odds available at Caesars sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -145.
Payton Tolle is the scheduled starter for Boston, as the left-hander is set to make his 24th start of the season. Tolle has put together a very strong year, posting a 3.23 ERA through his first 131 innings pitched, and his xERA lowers even further to 2.73. Tolle generates a good number of strikeouts while throwing strikes consistently and limiting hard contact allowed. He has also been lights out when pitching on the road. Baltimore is a solid lineup but struggles with their strikeouts against lefties.
Kyle Bradish is scheduled to make his 28th start of the season for the Orioles today. Bradish has stayed healthy this year, which is a step in the right direction, but his performance has taken a step back. His 4.01 ERA is shadowed by a 4.30 xERA that ranks just 37th percentile. He grades middle of the pack in nearly every metric this season and has struggled with allowing home runs in his last few starts.
MLB Best Bet: Walbert Urena (LAA) over 4.5 strikeouts recorded (-152)
Odds available at Caesars sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -170.
Walbert Urena is a pitcher I expect to bet on for several seasons, as his profile is one that is conducive to run prevention. His ground-ball rate is his main attraction, ranking 92nd percentile at 54.1%. He also generates weak contact on the ground that is easier to field and primed for double-play balls. Urena is not someone that allows many homers, and he is tough to string hits together against. The glaring issue in his game is walks, but his above-average strikeout rate helps reduce damage.
On the season Urena sits 67th percentile in whiff rate. His chase rate sits 55th percentile as well. Urena can generate a third strike with any of his offerings, but his changeup is the pitch that should benefit him the most Sunday against Pittsburgh. His changeup generates a 35.7% whiff rate this season and is the pitch that should propel him over his 4.5 strikeout prop. Pittsburgh has a 23% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days, and Urena is fresh off of eight Ks in his last start.
Get our Angels vs Pirates prediction
MLB Best Bet: Brady Singer (CIN) over 2.5 earned runs allowed (-136)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -155.
Brady Singer is worth picking on in the betting markets until further notice. I have said this his last few starts but will continue to target opposing lineups against him. Singer has allowed three or more earned runs in each of his last eight starts. That stretch of play has raised his season-long ERA from 4.53 to 4.83, while the Reds are 2-6 as a team in that span. Singer ranks 13th percentile this season with his 5.02 xERA, and his struggles are shown in several ways.
The right-hander is a low strikeout-rate arm that relies on command of the zone and defense behind him. He ranks 16th percentile in hard-hit rate this season with a 20th-percentile barrel rate. Singer has allowed 26 home runs, and that is an issue that sprouts up at inopportune times. He now faces a Milwaukee lineup that ranks second in wOBA with a 116 wRC+ against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days. Singer pitched well against the Brewers in their first matchup this season, but I don’t expect a good outing this time around from the struggling right-hander.
